ServiceNow 值得买入，但信心有所降低；当前 145 美元的价格相对于此前低于 80 美元的下跌而言估值合理。
逐段跳播
ServiceNow的管理团队近几个月在消除投资者对人工智能将扼杀其业务的担忧方面做了出色的工作。对于2026年全年，公司预计收入增长21%，营业利润率接近32%。
ServiceNow's management team has done incredible work in recent months in reducing investor fears that artificial intelligence will kill its business. For the full year in 2026, the company's guiding to revenue growth of 21% with operating profit margins approaching 32%.
这看起来不像是一个被人工智能扼杀的业务。但该股值得买入吗？让我们通过回顾公司的长期业绩、将其与估值进行比较并确定答案来共同回答这个问题。
This doesn't look like a business that's being killed by artificial intelligence. But is the stock a buy? Let's answer that question together by reviewing the company's longer term results, comparing it against its valuation, and determining an answer.
ServiceNow预计2026年收入增长超过20%，而且公司多年来一直保持20%以上的增长。
ServiceNow is forecasting revenue growth above 20% for 2026, and the company's been growing above 20% for multiple years.
在过去的12个月中，公司创造了147亿美元的收入。而2017年这一数字还不到20亿美元。公司旨在成为人工智能控制塔，并正在扩展到客户关系管理和网络安全等类别。
Over the trailing 12-month period, it generated $14.7 billion in revenue. This figure was less than $2 billion in 2017. The company aims to be the AI control tower, and it's expanding into categories like customer relationship management and cybersecurity.
在最近结束的季度中，公司的营业利润率大幅提高，而且他们历来如此。在过去的12个月中，公司报告的营业利润率为13.6%，高于2017年的-15%。
In the most recently completed quarter, the company's operating profit margin increased substantially, and they have a history of doing just that. Over the trailing 12-month period, it reported operating margins of 13.6% and that was up from -15% in 2017.
对于2026年全年，管理团队预计营业利润率将大幅提高，尤其是如果按非GAAP基础（剔除一些一次性费用）来看，营业利润率看起来更强劲。
For the full year 2026, the management team is forecasting operating margins increasing substantially higher, and especially if you look at it on non-GAAP basis, which removes some one-time expenses, the operating margins look stronger still.
同样，ServiceNow一直在提高其投入资本回报率，最近一期达到11%。这比过去十年显著提高。这是一家软件企业，因此软件企业通常具有更高的利润率，或者资本密集度低于其他需要大量固定资本投资的行业，如制造业设施、仓库、物流等。
这些是资本密集型行业。而对于ServiceNow这样的公司，资本密集度并不大。因此，存在实现高投入资本回报率的潜力，尤其是在规模更大的情况下。
Similarly, ServiceNow has been improving its return on invested capital, which totaled 11% in the most recent period. That's up significantly over the previous decade. This is a software business, and so software businesses have higher profit margins and or less capital intensive than other industries that require heavy fixed capital investment. Things like manufacturing facilities, warehouses, logistics, etc. These are capital intensive industries. Whereas for a company like ServiceNow, the capital intensity is not all that large. And so the potential for a high return on invested capital exists, especially at larger scale.
ServiceNow的股价在2026年经历了过山车般的行情。年初导致股价暴跌的SaaS末日论使股价一度跌至每股80美元。此后，股价回升，截至本次录制时已超过144美元。总体而言，今年仍下跌5%。
ServiceNow stock price has been on a roller coaster ride in 2026. The SaaS apocalypse that sent shares crashing earlier in the year, the stock price fell as low as $80 per share. Since then, it's recovered and it's up over $144 as of this recording. Overall, for the year, it's still down 5%.
在某个时点，其远期市盈率估值跌破20。这是你买入ServiceNow股票最便宜的时候，我制作了多个视频，很多个视频，对ServiceNow股票进行排名，并告知投资者我认为这是逢低买入的绝佳机会。
At one point, its valuation on a forward price-to-earnings basis dropped below 20. That was the cheapest you've ever been able to buy ServiceNow stock, and I made multiple videos, many multiple videos, ranking ServiceNow stock and informing investors that I thought it was a great buying opportunity on the dip.
你们中有些人可能看了那个视频，并在那些较低的价格积累了一些股票。所以，恭喜你们获得这些收益。
Some of you may have watched that video and accumulated some shares at those lower prices. So, congratulations on those gains.
ServiceNow目前的远期市盈率为29，仍然低于你在2026年之前买入该股的价格。该股历史上远期市盈率在40至60之间交易。
ServiceNow is now trading at a forward price-to-earnings of 29, which is still lower than what you were able to buy this stock before 2026. The stock historically traded in the range of a forward price-to-earnings between 40 and 60.
因为正如我之前提到的，它的收入增长超过20%。其营业利润率和现金流正在改善。在2026年SaaS末日论之前，软件股在投资者心中占有有利地位。
Because as I mentioned earlier, it's growing revenue over 20%. Its operating profit margins and cash flow are improving. And before the SaaS apocalypse of 2026, software stocks had a favorable place in investor minds.
我也一直在使用我的贴现现金流模型来评估估值，我今天更新了它，我计算出的每股内在价值为155美元。当前市场价格为145美元，在应用安全边际后，我认为该股看起来估值合理。
I've also been looking at the valuation using my discounted cash flow model, and I updated this today, and the intrinsic value per share I calculate at $155. The current market price is $145, which after applying a margin of safety, I would say the stock looks fairly valued.
所以，ServiceNow在缓解投资者担忧方面做得很好。股价大幅上涨，因此估值不像几个月前我对此业务非常看涨时那么有吸引力。
So, ServiceNow has been doing a great job in assuaging investor concerns. The stock price is up significantly, and so the valuation is not as attractive as it was a few months ago when I was very bullish on this business.
今天我将重申对ServiceNow股票的买入评级。不过，我将降低我的信心水平。此前，我有很高的信心水平，高确信度认为这是一个绝佳的买入机会，并且在SaaS大灾难期间我多次重申这一点。
但现在股价已大幅上涨，估值接近公允价值水平，我对这一买入评级的信心正在下降。因此，我不像一个月前或两个月前股价低得多时那样看好ServiceNow了。
So, today I will be reiterating my buy rating for ServiceNow stock. However, I will be lowering my conviction level. Previously, I had a high confidence level, high conviction level that it was a great buying opportunity, and I reiterated that multiple times throughout the SaaS apocalypse. But now that the share price has increased significantly, and the valuations are approaching fairly valued levels, my confidence in this buy ranking is decreasing. So, I'm not as bullish on ServiceNow as I was maybe a month ago or 2 months ago when the share price was much lower.
这个频道对 $NOW 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。