NU鉴于其在拉丁美洲的增长与长期跑道而被低估。
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好的，现在让我们继续讨论我想谈的下一只股票，即 New Bank。New Bank 的财报非常出色，财报公布后第二天股价上涨超过 10%。然而，它几乎回吐了所有涨幅，我认为这有点令人惊讶，因为这确实是一份令人难以置信的财报。
All right, let's now move on to the next stock that I want to talk about which is New Bank. New Bank had a fantastic earnings report and the stock was up over 10% the next day after earnings. However, it has pretty much given all of its gains back, which I think is kind of surprising because this was truly an incredible report from the business.
现在，对于那些可能不了解的人，New Bank 是一家位于拉丁美洲的金融科技公司。他们目前大部分业务在巴西，并且正在扩展到墨西哥和哥伦比亚。他们在美国也有一个小规模的扩张正在进行中。
但就我个人而言，我不会将这家公司的投资论点视为其成功扩展到美国，而是其正在数字化拉丁美洲经济，特别是巴西、墨西哥和哥伦比亚。
Now, very quickly, for those of you who may not know, New Bank is a fintech business down in Latin America. Most of their business is currently in Brazil, and they're also expanding into Mexico and Colombia. They do have a small expansion underway in the United States. But personally, I would not view the thesis on this business as it's successfully expanding into the United States, but instead the thesis is that it is digitizing the Latin America economy, specifically again Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia.
它还直接与 Mercado Libre 的金融科技平台竞争，而 Mercado Libre 是我投资组合中的股票。这两项业务都在快速扩张。
It also competes directly with Marcato Libre's fintech platform, and Marcato Libre is the stock that I have in my portfolio. Both of these businesses are expanding rapidly.
那么，让我们快速看一下 New Bank 财报的亮点。现在，这个截图显示了在汇率中性基础上的亮点。我们可以看到客户增长了 13%，交易量增长了 16%，每用户平均收入增长了 22%，整体组合增长了 37%，存款增长了 18%，收入增长了 39%，毛利润增长了 43%，盈利增长了 49%，第一季度是 GAAP 盈利超过 10 亿美元的第一个季度。
所以，New Bank 的业务增长非常出色，第二季度盈利同比增长了 49%。
So, let's take a quick look at the highlights from New Bank's earnings. Now, this screenshot here shows us the highlights on an FX neutral basis. And we can see that customers are up 13%, purchase volume is up 16%, average revenue per user is up 22%, the overall portfolio is up 37%, deposits are up 18%, revenue was up 39%, gross profits up 43%, and earnings were up 49%. with the first quarter being the first quarter of over $1 billion in GAP earnings. So, New Bank's business is growing extremely well and again earnings were up 49% on a year-over-year basis for the second quarter.
下一张截图来自他们的季度投资者演示文稿，它真正用一张图片展示了 New Bank 的投资论点。在这里你可以看到 New Bank 的客户继续增长得很好。每客户平均收入也在增长。
业务的总收入几乎在爆发式增长，而服务成本实际上在下降，这体现在效率比率的下降上。这最终导致盈利爆发，现在季度盈利超过 10 亿美元。简单来说，New Bank 继续增长其客户。
每客户收入在增长。服务这些客户的成本在下降，这导致了巨大的利润增长。
This next screenshot comes from their quarterly investor presentation and it really shows the thesis of New Bank in a single image. Here you can see that the customers of New Bank are continuing to grow very well. The average revenue per customer is also growing. the gross revenue of the business is pretty much exploding and then the cost to serve is actually coming down represented by the efficiency ratio also declining. This ultimately leads to earnings exploding and earnings being over $1 billion in the quarter now. So to put that simply, New Bank is continuing to grow its customers. Its revenue per customer is growing. Its cost to serve those customers is coming down and that leads to massive profit growth.
事实上，如果我们快速转到 Stock Unlock，我这里有一个图表想给你看。我们将展示每客户平均收入和平均服务成本。让我们以线性方式来看。在这里你可以看到每客户平均收入继续增长并很好地扩展。
然而，服务这些客户的平均成本根本没有增长。事实上，自 2020 年第四季度以来，它总共下降了 9%。而同期每用户月平均收入增长了 418%。这就是 New Bank 的业务如何继续以爆炸性的速度增长其利润。
它正在获得客户。它从每个客户那里获得更多收入，但其每客户服务成本并没有上升。
In fact, if we head over to Stock Unlock here really quickly, I have a chart here that I want to show you. And what we're going to do is show the average revenue per customer and the average cost to serve those customers. And let's take a look at this on a line basis. And here you can see that the average revenue per customer is continuing to grow and scale very well. However, the average cost to serve those customers is not growing at all. And in fact, since the fourth quarter of 2020, it is down a total of 9%. While again at the monthly average revenue per user has grown 418% over that same time. This is how New Bank's business is continuing to grow its profits at an explosive pace. It is gaining customers. It's getting more revenue per customer, but its cost to serve on a per customer basis is not going up.
但让我们回到 New Bank 的投资者演示文稿。这个截图显示 New Bank 现在是墨西哥最大的数字银行。这里的跑道仍然巨大。它还在今年第一季度在墨西哥实现了盈亏平衡。现在墨西哥直接增加了底线，并帮助底线增长更快。
在墨西哥，35% 的用户在注册 New Bank 之前没有银行账户，52% 没有信用卡。墨西哥仍然是一个银行服务不足的国家，New Bank 和 Mercado Libre 是将人们带入线上并让他们接触数字经济的业务。
But let's get back over to New Bank's investor presentation. And this screenshot shows us that New Bank is now the largest digital bank in Mexico. And the runway here is still massive. It also broke even in Mexico in the first quarter of this year. And now Mexico is adding directly to the bottom line and helping the bottom line grow faster. 35% of its users in Mexico had no bank account before signing up with New Bank and 52% had no credit card. Mexico is still a very underbanked nation and New Bank and Marcato Libre are the businesses bringing people online and giving them access to the digital economy.
New Bank 在巴西信贷市场也表现优于同行，尽管现有机构的不良率开始上升，但 New Bank 保持了较低的不良率。事实上，New Bank 的不良贷款实际上在下降，而市场其他部分则在上升。
与此同时，业务同比增长 50%，并继续夺取市场份额。在我看来，这表明 New Bank 的承销能力优于现有机构。
New Bank is also outperforming the credit markets in Brazil, keeping loss rates low despite the incumbents seeing loss rates starting to increase. In fact, New Bank's non-performing loans are actually declining while the rest of the market is seeing increases. This is at the same time as the business is growing 50% on a year-over-year basis and continuing to take market share. In my opinion, this shows that New Bank's underwriting capabilities are superior and better than the incumbents.
现在，让我们回到 Stock Unlock，看看一些关键绩效指标。在这里我们可以看到 New Bank 的过去 12 个月收入达到 193.4 亿美元，并且正在重新加速。如果我们打开过去 12 个月的百分比变化，New Bank 的收入增长了 50.5%。
现在，在这个规模水平上，这是很好的增长。接下来，如果我们看看 New Bank 的盈利，他们现在在过去 12 个月中实现了 36.1 亿美元。按季度计算，你可以看到这是他们正式实现盈利超过 10 亿美元的第一个季度。
按年化计算，New Bank 现在每年盈利约 40 亿美元。所以，这项业务增长非常好，而且非常盈利。
Now, let's head back over to Stock Unlock and take a look at some of the KPIs. And here we can see that New Bank's revenue hit $19.34 billion in the trailing 12 months, and it is reacelerating. If we turn on the percent change in the trailing 12 months, New Bank's revenue has grown by 50.5%. Now, this is great growth at this level of scale. Next, if we take a look at New Bank's earnings, they have now done $3.61 billion in the trailing 12 months. And on a quarterly basis, you can see that this is the first quarter where they have officially achieved over $1 billion in earnings. On an annualized basis, New Bank is now doing about $4 billion in earnings as well. So, this business is growing very well and it is extremely profitable.
那么，现在让我们谈谈 New Bank 的估值。在这里我们可以看到它目前在股市上的估值为 716 亿美元。所以，让我们快速打开计算器，716 亿美元除以约 40 亿美元的年化盈利。
这意味着，如果他们能够继续产生约 10 亿美元的季度利润，New Bank 的交易价格约为年化盈利的 18 倍。对于一家营收同比增长 50% 的企业来说，这不是一个很高的市盈率。
我理解 New Bank 显然是一家银行，但通常成熟的银行交易价格约为盈利的 15 倍，而它们每年增长约 10%。所以，尽管 New Bank 的增长速度是典型银行的五倍，但它的溢价并不高。
如果我们再看看 New Bank 的远期市盈率，目前为 14.3。在我看来，对于一家增长如此迅速且未来增长跑道如此之长的企业来说，这是一个极低的倍数。所以，我确实认为 New Bank 目前在市场上被低估了。
So, now let's talk about New Bank's valuation. And here we can see that it currently has a valuation of 71.6 billion on the stock market. So, let's open up our calculator very quickly and go 71.6 6 billion divided by about 4 billion in annualized earnings. Now, which means that New Bank is trading for about 18 times annualized earnings if they can continue to produce about a billion dollars in quarterly profits. This is not a very high price multiple for a business that is still seeing its top line grow by 50% on a year-over-year basis. I understand that New Bank is obviously a bank, but typically mature banks trade for about 15 times earnings while they grow around 10% per year. So, New Bank is not selling for that much of a premium despite it seeing about five times as much growth as your typical bank. If we also take a look at New Bank's forward PE, it's currently sitting at 14.3. This in my opinion is an extremely low multiple for a business that is growing so rapidly and in my opinion has such a long runway for future growth. So I do think that new bank is actually quite undervalued in the market right now.
我不持有New Bank的原因是我持有Mercado Libre，而Mercado Libre已经成长为我的一个相当大的仓位。Mercado Libre有自己的金融科技业务，与New Bank大体相同。
但我认为Mercado Libre实际上有一些竞争优势，因为它有更多关于客户的数据，因为它的很多客户也使用其电子商务平台。所以Mercado Libre可以看到客户在电子商务平台上的消费情况，并获得更多的洞察和数据。
此外，Mercado Libre的金融科技业务在过去十二个月的收入为150亿美元，这大约比New Bank落后两个季度。换句话说，它现在的规模几乎与New Bank相同。但Mercado Libre的整个业务目前市值约为1000亿美元。
所以，多花大约300亿美元，我得到的是大致相同规模的金融科技业务，可能延迟约6个月，还有拉丁美洲最大的电子商务平台、庞大的媒体和订阅业务，以及一个庞大且高利润、快速增长的广告业务。
再说一次，所有这些只需额外约300亿美元。所以我认为Mercado Libre有更强的护城河，更多的顺风，以及更加多元化的业务。因此，我认为Mercado Libre的溢价是合理的，而且我认为Mercado Libre在今天的市场上甚至比New Bank更便宜。
但我仍然认为New Bank的财报结果非常出色，而且我认为这只股票在今天的市场上也被低估了。
Now the reason that I do not own new bank in my portfolio is because I have Marcato Libre and Marcato Libre has grown into a pretty large position of mine. Marcato Libre has its own fintech business that is largely the same as Newbank. But I think that Marcato Libre actually has some competitive advantages because it has even more data on its customers because a lot of its customers also use its e-commerce platform. So Marcato Libre can see what its customers are spending money on on the e-commerce platform as well and get even more insights and data there. Additionally, Marcato Libre's fintech business did $15 billion in revenue in the trailing 12 months, which puts it roughly two quarters behind where New Bank is. Or in other words, it's almost the same size as New Bank today. But Marcott Libresy's entire business is valued at around 100 billion in the stock market right now. So for an extra $30 billion I am getting roughly the same size fintech business maybe delayed by about 6 months. The largest e-commerce platform in Latin America a massive media and subscriptions business and also a massive highly profitable and rapidly growing advertising business. Again all of that for an extra roughly $30 billion. So I think that Marcado Libre has a little bit of a stronger moat, much more tailwinds and just a much more diversified business too. So I think that the premium for Marcato Libre is more than justified and I think that Marcato Libre is even cheaper in the market today than New Bank. But I still think that New Bank had a fantastic earnings result and I think that this stock is also undervalued in the market today.
他说在等什么
他自己说在等的东西，一段话一条记录。同一件事说过几次就出现几次，我们不合并，也不判断它有没有兑现。
这个频道对 $NU 的历次判断
Daniel Pronk 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。