英伟达的NVLink Fusion战略极为看涨,且该股被低估,因为市场最终将认识到其超过5万亿美元的增长潜力。
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英伟达基本上表示,对其竞争对手来说,游戏已经结束了。我想更仔细地看看英伟达,因为英伟达基本上表示,对其竞争对手来说,游戏已经结束了。
Nvidia pretty much said it's game over for its competitors. I want to take a closer look at Nvidia cuz Nvidia pretty much said it's game over for its competitors.
我想仔细看看四只我认为能从中大幅受益的股票,以及一只我认为需要做出一些改变的股票。如果他们不这样做,那么对这家AI巨头来说,情况可能会有点悲观。今天我想看看英伟达,这是英伟达的财报周。
I want to take a closer look at four stocks that I believe can benefit dramatically from this and one stock that I believe needs to make some changes. And if they don't, then things might be a little bearish for this AI giant. today I want to look at Nvidia and this is Nvidia's earnings week.
所以,我们会从英伟达那里得到很多内容和很多东西。随着英伟达财报的临近,我实际上很高兴这只股票没有那么兴奋,对吧?大约一周前我们还在220美元以上。现在,我们在208美元。
So, we're going to get a lot of content and a lot of things coming out from Nvidia. with Nvidia earnings coming up, I'm actually pretty happy that the stock is not as excited, right? We were over $220 about a week ago. Now, we're at 208.
我是英伟达的长期投资者,对吧?这家公司彻底改变了我的生活。现在,我不知道英伟达什么时候会迎来那个彻底扭转局面、让AI领域再次兴奋起来的季度。
I'm a long-term investor of Nvidia, right? This is the company that has completely changed my life. Now, I don't know when Nvidia's going to have that quarter that's going to completely flip the switch and make it exciting again for the AI space.
我这么说的原因是,今年迄今为止,这只股票基本上持平,对吧?上涨10%。这不算什么,尤其是如果你是AI领导者的话。
And the reason I'm saying that is because year-to-date, the stock is pretty much flat, right? Up 10%. That's nothing, especially if you are the AI leader.
我不知道是这季度、下季度还是下下季度,但其中一个季度,市场会醒悟过来说:“我对英伟达的看法错了,尽管它是市值5万亿美元的最大公司,但它实际上可以更大。”
I don't know if it's this quarter or next quarter or the quarter after that, but one of these quarters, the market is going to wake up and say, "I was wrong with Nvidia and this, even though it is the biggest company at a $5 trillion, it can actually be bigger."
在本集的开头,我提到有一个市场,英伟达基本上在说竞争已死,竞争已死到你需要回到英伟达。那个竞争就是XPU市场。
Now, in the intro of this episode, I mentioned that there's a market Nvidia is pretty much saying competition is dead and competition is so dead that that you need to come back to Nvidia. And that competition is the XPU market.
但英伟达说芯片设计很难。如果你在构建XPU,你就是在浪费时间,除非你进入英伟达生态系统,否则这个市场已经死了。
But Nvidia says that chip design is hard. And if you're building an XPU, you are wasting your time and this is a market that's dead unless unless you enter the Nvidia ecosystem.
他们提到这个的原因是,当时,在芯片设计过程或计算市场中,你真正需要做的就是卖出一块芯片。如果你卖出一块芯片,你就能获得收入,你就能收到钱,而且那块芯片运行良好。
Now, the reason that they mentioned this is because back then, right back then in the chip design process or in the kind of just the compute market, all you really had to do was sell a chip. And if you sold a chip, you got revenue, you got collected and that chip worked well.
现在,在这个AI市场中,情况正在完全改变,因为你在建造工厂,对吧?你在建造完整的工厂。当你建造完整的工厂时,你需要能够设计——你不再设计芯片,你设计的是系统。
Now, in this AI market that's completely changing because you're building factories, right? You're building full factories. And when you're building full factories, you need to be able to design you're no longer designing a chip, you're designing a system.
大多数公司仍然只是在设计芯片,这甚至不是战斗的一半,对吧?可能连战斗的三分之一都不到,因为如果你在建造——我们现在在建造吉瓦级数据中心,对吧?
And most companies are still just designing a chip and that's not even half the battle, right? Probably not even a third of the battle because if you're building we're building these gigawatt data centers now, right?
从历史上看,一个吉瓦级数据中心,我们可以看到它每年大约能产生50美元的收入。上下浮动,大约正负100亿美元。无论如何,这些大规模数据中心至关重要,它们所获得的收入数额极其庞大。
And historically, a gigawatt data center, we can see it's collecting roughly $50 of revenue per year. Give or take plus uh plus or minus $10 billion. Regardless, these massive data centers are crucial and the number of revenues that they're collecting is extremely high.
所以,如果你在制造AI芯片,你需要确保自己能够构建AI数据中心。而这不再仅仅是芯片本身。
So, if you are building an AI chip, you need to make sure that you're able to build an AI data center. And that's no longer just a chip itself.
你需要包括纵向扩展、横向扩展以及所有类型的网络解决方案。你需要能够理解如何在机架级架构的生产工厂中部署软件。你需要拥有这种庞大的供应生态系统,让你不仅仅说“嘿,我只是在制造芯片”,而是“我在构建整个AI数据中心”。
You need to include the scale up, the scale out, all the networking types of solutions. You need to be able to understand how you can racks at your rack scale architecture production factory of software. You need to have kind of this crazy supply ecosystem that allows you to not just say, "Hey, I'm just building a chip, but I'm building this whole AI data center."
因为时间就是金钱,或者金钱就是时间,对吧?你可以给NVIDIA打电话说:“听着,我需要一个1千瓦的数据中心。”NVIDIA会说:“没问题。我知道如何处理冷却。这是我做这一切的蓝图。你很快就能建立你的数据中心。你知道这些芯片很棒,你很快就能开始获得收入。”
Because money is time or time is money, right? NVIDIA you can call them up and say, "Listen, I need a 1 kW data center." NVIDIA says, "No problem. I know how to handle the cooling. This is the blueprint that I have to do all this. You'll be able to set up your data center in no time. You know these chips are great, and you're going to be collecting revenue in no time."
如果你在内部与某人合作开发ASIC,他们是否已经考虑过所有这些?如果他们还没有,最终准备好所有这些需要多长时间?
If you're doing an ASIC with somebody internally, had they thought about all that already, right? And if they haven't, what is going to be the timeline of finally getting all that ready?
然后如果它不工作怎么办?你会因为试图在ASIC解决方案上节省几个点的利润率,而错过一个1千瓦数据中心数百亿美元的收入。
And then what if it doesn't work? You missed out on tens of billions of dollars on revenue on a 1 kW data center because you were trying to save a few margins on an ASIC solution.
所以,NVIDIA在说:“如果你身处ASIC领域,那是艰苦的工作。但如果你真的想留在ASIC领域,跟我来,对吧?我会帮你。我有这个叫NVLink Fusion的东西,它能让你的ASIC进入NVIDIA生态系统。”
Uh so, NVIDIA is saying, "If you're in this ASIC space, it's hard work. But, if you really want to be in this ASIC space, come with me, right? I'll help you out. I have this thing called NVLink Fusion, which allows you to bring your ASIC into the NVIDIA ecosystem."
所以,也许你不再是我100%的客户,但你仍然是我60%、70%的客户,我们都赢了,因为你感觉“嘿,你并没有不买我所有的芯片。”而我也赢了,因为我仍然在增长,并且与你一起成长。
So, while maybe you're no longer a 100% of my customer, you're still 60, 70% of my customer, and we both win because you feel like, 'Hey, you don't aren't not buying all my chips.' And I win because I'm still growing and growing with you as well.
现在,NVLink Fusion允许,如我提到的,将这些XPU连接到NVIDIA的基础设施。NVIDIA实际上给出了很多理由说明为什么这非常重要。
Now, NVLink Fusion allows, like I mentioned, the connection of these XPUs to NVIDIA's infrastructure. And NVIDIA actually gives a lot of reasons why this is pretty important.
当你与NVIDIA的生态系统连接时,你连接的是他们的纵向扩展、横向扩展、他们的CPU,等等。但NVIDIA这样做的主要原因,或者说他们提供这个并提出来,是因为他们说这是管理风险的好方法,对吧?
And like you kind of connect with an NVIDIA's ecosystem, you're connecting with their scale up, their scale out, their CPUs, and the list goes on. But, but the main reason NVIDIA does this is because or they're offering this and they're bringing it up is they're saying that this is a great way to manage risk, right?
一个锁定单一芯片的数据中心可能成为进度风险。就像我刚才说的,想象一下你正在建设一个数据中心,它只针对你正在设计的一种ASIC芯片。
A data center locked to one chip can become a schedule risk. And like I was talking about, imagine you're building a data center that only is meant for one type of ASIC chip that you are designing.
如果出现任何问题怎么办?那个数据中心就不会产生任何收入。但是,如果你是N D I N D link融合计划的一部分呢?客户可以先部署N D I GPU的直接解决方案,对吧?
And what happens if there's a hiccup? That data center is not making any revenue. But, what if you are part of the N D I N D link fusion program? A customer can deploy direct level solution with N D I GPUs to start off with, right?
我们要建设这个数据中心,但我的AI芯片还没准备好。让我用N D I的GPU和整个生态系统来建设。
We're going to build we're building this data center my AI chip is not ready yet. Let me build with N D I's GPU and the whole ecosystem.
然后,他们可以将XPU的开发解耦,并以不同的节奏进行。所以,也许在第一个月、第二个月、第三个月,当你建设这个数据中心并逐步部署时,你会从N D link和N D I的主要解决方案开始。
And then, they can decouple the development of their XPUs and put it at a different pace. So, maybe month one, month two, month three, as you're building this data center and you're putting things on, you're going to start with N D link and N D I's main solution.
但现在五个月过去了,你实际上对自己的AI芯片更有信心了,你能够将它放入这个N D I生态系统中,现在这两台服务器可以共存。
But, now five months have happened and you've actually feel more comfortable with your AI chip and you are able to put it into this N D I ecosystem where now these two servers can live together.
所以,这是两全其美,因为你能尽快开始产生收入,因为N D I是芯片设计的首选。但同时,你也将能够让股东满意。
So, it's the best of both worlds because you're able to start collecting revenue as soon as possible because N D I is the go at designing chips. But, at the same time, you're also going to be able to make your shareholders happy.
你或许能够提高利润率,因为随着时间推移,你也能开始将你自己的ASIC添加到这些解决方案中,但仍然属于整个生态系统的一部分。
You may be able to increase your margins because as times progress, you're going to be able to start adding your own ASICs into these solutions as well, but still be part of the whole ecosystem.
我认为这非常非常非常乐观。现在,我认为有几个合作伙伴可以从中受益。N D I实际上给了我们N D I link融合计划的股票列表,列出了正在合作的公司。
And I think that is extremely extremely extremely bullish. Now, there are a few partners that I think can benefit from this. N D I has actually given us the N D I link fusion list of the stocks of the companies that are working.
在CPU方面,有ARM、Intel、Fujitsu、Sci-Fi。
In the CPU side, you have ARM, you have Intel, you have Fujitsu, you have Sci-Fi.
我发现一件非常有趣的事情是,Qualcomm曾经是这个列表的一部分。我不知道他们去了哪里。我不知道这是利好还是利空,但他们曾经是这个列表的一部分。
Now, one thing that I found pretty interesting was Qualcomm used to be a part of this list. And I don't know where they went. I don't know if that's bullish or bearish, but they used to be part of this list.
在定制硅片方面,有Astera Labs、Alchip、Samsung、MediaTek和Marvell。在技术合作伙伴方面,有Cadence和Synopsys。这些是帮助你设计这些的公司。
Now, in the custom silicon, you have Astera Labs, you have Alchip, you have Samsung, you have MediaTek, and you have Marvell. In the technology partners, you have Cadence and Synopsys. These are the ones that help you design these.
在光学合作伙伴中,有Aear Labs、Light Matter和Marvell。所以,你大概已经能猜到我认为哪些市场会从中受益,那就是这些生态系统内部的各个部分。
In the optical partners, you have Aear Labs, Light Matter, and Marvell. So, you can kind of already guess what are the markets that I believe can benefit from these, and it's going to be the parts within these ecosystems.
而我认为最有可能获胜的参与者之一将是Marvell。这不是保证,但可能性非常高。我之所以提到这一点,是因为在2026年3月31日,Nvidia与Marvell联手,扩大了合作伙伴关系。
And the one one of the players I believe is very high likely of winning is going to be Marvell. It's not a guarantee, but very high likely. The reason I bring that is because in March 31st of 2026, Nvidia brought Marvell they they joined forces in the in the kind of expanded partnership.
其中一项合作是在光学方面。另一项是NVLink融合。Nvidia最终向Marvell投资了20亿美元。大约在同一时间,我们确实听说AWS正在构建自己的芯片用于训练,实际上将使用Nvidia的NVLink融合。
And one of the partnerships was the optic side. The other things was the NVLink fusion. Nvidia ended up investing $2 billion in Marvell. Around the same time frame, we did hear that AWS, who is building their own chips to train them for is actually going to be using Nvidia's NVLink fusion.
而设计和帮助AWS进行训练的公司,你猜对了,就是Marvell。
And the one that designs and helps AWS with the training for is, you guessed it, Marvell.
没错,Marvell是这里的赢家。而现在,Nvidia,我认为这对AWS来说确实很好,明白了。AWS明白,如果我们要在AI芯片方面表现出色,拥有良好的总拥有成本,就必须与Nvidia合作。
Right, Marvell is the one winning here. And and now Nvidia I I believe this is really good for AWS understood. AWS understood that if we're going to have to be if we're going to be able to be the a good performer in our AI chip, good total cost of ownership, we have to join with Nvidia.
所以,这很有趣。但你已经看到了这样的公告,Nvidia实际上仍然保留着那个设计自己AI芯片的客户,并且他们将能够授权许多产品。
So, it's interesting. But then you have already announcements like this where Nvidia is actually still keeping that customer that designing their own AI chip, and they're going to be able to license a lot of products.
另一个我觉得相当有趣的是Marvell和Google宣布了合作。现在,Marvell不会帮助Google设计他们自己的TPU,但他们会帮助特定的AI加速器。
The other one that I thought was pretty interesting is Marvell and Google announced a partnership. Now, Marvell Marvell is not going to help Google design their own TPUs, but they're going to help specific AI accelerators.
这是否是Marvell以某种方式将NVLink引入Google的入门点?因为目前,在ASIC领域有一家非常受欢迎的公司,它不属于NVLink融合领域,那就是Broadcom。
Is this kind of the entry-level point for Marvell to somehow sleep slip the NVLink into Google? Because at the moment, there is a company that's very popular in the ASIC space that does not is not part of the NVLink fusion space, and that's Broadcom.
而Broadcom这家公司,我有点想说担心,但我认为他们需要改变一些事情,我们稍后会稍微讨论一下。
And that's the Broadcom company that I'm a little bit I want to say worried about, but I think they need a change certain things and we'll talk a little bit about there.
微软也在与他们合作开发Maya 300,对吧?所以,Marvell确实有很多——我想知道我们是否会得到一个公告,微软A6中即将推出的某个Maya可能会成为NVLink Fusion世界的一部分。
Microsoft is also working with them for the Maya 300, right? So, Marvell does have a lot of I wonder if we're going to get an announcement where one of the upcoming Mayas from Microsoft's A6 might end up being part of the NVLink Fusion world.
所以,有几只我认为会受益的股票。首先,Marvell,对吧?我认为NVLink Fusion将会很重要,尤其是当我们进入这些规模时,这将是Marvell的一个很好的收入驱动力。
So, few stocks that I believe can benefit. First, Marvell, right? I think NVLink Fusion is going to be big, especially as we're getting into these sizes and this would be a good kind of revenue driver for Marvell.
不仅因为它将成为NVLink的合作伙伴,而且很可能如果你试图研究某些网络解决方案或某些光学解决方案,Marvell将成为那个合作伙伴,因为他们正在合作,比如,“嘿,你已经在和我们做NVLink Fusion了。让我们也和你合作一些网络和光学解决方案。”
Not only because it's going to be a partner for the NVLink, but most likely if you're trying to work on certain networking solutions or certain optic solution, Marvell is going to be that partner because they're working with like, "Hey, you're already doing the NVLink Fusion with us. Let us also work with you on some of the networking and optic solution as well."
所以,Marvell是第一个。下一个是Astera Labs。这是他们定制硅片名单中的另一个合作伙伴。这里有Astera Labs,我确实相信他们可以大幅受益。
So, Marvell is the first one. The next one is Astera Labs. This is another partner from their kind of list of of custom silicon. You have Astera Labs here and I do believe they can benefit dramatically.
同样,对于所有这些类型的方法,Astera Labs目前从52周高点或年初至今高点下跌了大约42,Astera Labs是另一个我相信长期可以受益的公司。
Again, with all these types of approaches and Astera Labs right now down roughly 42 from its 52-week high or a year-to-date high, Astera Labs is another one that I believe can benefit in the long term of things.
接下来是两个已经在与Marvell合作的超大规模企业。Amazon是第一个,Microsoft是第二个。现在,我对购买这些股票有些犹豫,因为我们之前买的时候便宜得多,我们在220多的时候买过,我们在400以下买了Amazon,我们当时在买Microsoft。
Next the two are the kind of hyperscalers that are already working with Marvell. Amazon is the first and Microsoft is the second. Now, I'm a little hesitant on buying these because we did buy them a lot cheaper when we were kind of in the 220s below, we bought Amazon in the sub 400s, we were buying Microsoft.
所以,长期看涨,也许现在不是个股的时机,除非我在定投。
So, bullish long-term, maybe not right now for individual stocks unless I'm dollar cost averaging.
对于Marvell和Astera Labs,我不介意在这些高贝塔名称上更激进一些,因为它们已经从52周高点回落了不少,而且我非常看涨。
Marvell and Astera Labs, I don't mind being a little bit more aggressive on these high beta names because they have pulled down a nice amount from their 52-week high and I am very bullish.
再说一次,这并不意味着它们会成为赢家。市场总是会变化,但根据我目前掌握的数据点,我现在会对这两只股票感到兴奋。
Again, this doesn't mean they're going to be winners. The market can always shift, but based on the data points that I have right now, I would be excited on these two stocks at the moment.
现在,就像我提到的,有一只股票我认为需要改变他们的合作方式,而Broadcom不是NVLink Fusion的一部分。
Now, like I mentioned, there is one stock that I I think needs to change how they're working with and Broadcom does not is not part of the NVLink Fusion.
对,他们不是NVLink Fusion的一部分。
Right, they're not part of the NVLink Fusion.
但是,他们有很大的客户群,对吧?他们有Anthropic,他们有OpenAI,他们有Meta,他们有Google,他们还有其他客户。
But, they have a huge customer base, right? They have Anthropic, they have OpenAI, they have Meta, they have Google and they have other customers.
如果那些其他客户开始离开Broadcom,或者开始与其他参与者合作,因为他们太固执,不想成为NVLink Fusion世界的一部分,那会怎样?
What if those other customers start to leave Broadcom or start to work with other players because they're so hard-headed and don't want to be part of the NVLink Fusion world.
例如,如果我是OpenAI,如果我是Nvidia,我会去找OpenAI,说:“你确定jalapeno会表现好吗?你确定你们的供应链已经打通了吗?你确定这个、那个、还有这个和那个吗?你去和Broadcom谈谈,确保你仍然是生态系统的一部分,因为你要确保一切都正确,对吧?我们都已经解决了。”
I For example, if I was OpenAI, I was if I was Nvidia, I'll go to OpenAI, I'll be like, "Are you sure jalapeno's going to do good? Are you sure you guys have the supply chain unlocked? Are you sure about this, that, and this, and that? Wouldn't it make sense for you to go talk to Broadcom to make sure you are still part of the ecosystem because you're going to make sure that everything's right, right? We have all this worked out."
所以,如果我是像OpenAI和Anthropic这样的公司,对吧?这两家公司不幸的是没有像超大规模企业那样的现金流。
So, if I'm a company like OpenAI and Anthropic, right? These are two players that unfortunately don't have the cash flow like the hyperscalers.
所以,如果芯片失效,而且失效得很严重,特别是如果他们正在大规模建设,那对他们来说将是一个巨大的打击。
So, if a chip fails and it chip fails really bad, especially if they're building something at massive scale, that is going to be a huge hit for them.
对于谷歌来说,如果他们的人工智能芯片失效,不会发生什么坏事,对吧?我的意思是,我认为他们会受到打击,也许他们的股票会受到惩罚,但这不是世界末日。
For Google, if one of their AI chips fails, nothing bad happens, right? I mean, I think they they'll take a hit and maybe their stock might be punished, but it's not end game over.
如果OpenAI和他们的光学在500兆瓦的芯片上没有正确扩展,那是个坏消息。而且我很确定Nvidia正在让那些玩家知道这一点。
If Open AI and their optics spent 500 MW on a chip that didn't scale up properly, that is bad news. And I'm pretty sure Nvidia is letting it be known to those players.
我想知道Broadcom是否最终会成为NVLink Fusion领域或合作伙伴关系的一部分。如果确实如此,我实际上会比现在更看好Broadcom。
And I wonder if Broadcom is going to eventually be a part of the NVLink Fusion domain or partnership. If actually it does, I would actually be more bullish on Broadcom than I am right now.
现在,我不看空Broadcom,我也不认为对他们来说游戏完全结束了,但这是投资者应该更密切关注的事情。我现在宁愿专注于那些属于NVLink Fusion合作伙伴名单的公司。
Now, I'm not bearish Broadcom, and I don't think it's game over completely for them, but it is something that investors should keep a closer eye on. And I would rather right now focus on companies that are part of the NVLink Fusion partnership list.
所以,希望你们喜欢今天的节目。保重,祝你们有美好的一天,下次见。
So, I hope you guys enjoyed today's episode. Take care, have a good day, and see you all next time.
他说在等什么
他自己说在等的东西,一段话一条记录。同一件事说过几次就出现几次,我们不合并,也不判断它有没有兑现。
这个频道对 $NVDA 的历次判断
Jose Najarro Stocks 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。