Realty Income 相对市场而言不适合追求资本增值，但适合获取可靠的月度收益。
逐段跳播
首先，我们要谈的是O，也就是Realty Income Corporation。这是一只非常受欢迎的股息股，但它的表现并不好。过去5年下跌了12%，过去10年下跌了16%。即使把股息再投资计算在内，它也大幅落后于市场。
And to start, we're going to be talking about O, that's Realty Income Corporation. This is a very popular dividend stock, but it has not been doing well. It's down 12% over the past 5 years and 16% over the past 10 years.
Even with dividends reinvested, it's been trailing the market significantly.
那它为什么这么受欢迎？这与它按月支付股息有关。而且他们在一年中不断提高股息支付，增幅也越来越大。他们已经连续30年支付并增长这笔股息。
So, why is it so popular? It has to do with the fact that it's a monthly dividend payer. And they continually raise their dividend payment throughout the year with larger increases as well.
And they have been paying and growing this dividend for 30 years.
然而，这里有几个警示信号。其一，股息增长已显著放缓。过去3年股息的5年复合年增长率为3.49%，而过去3年已进一步放缓至1.98%。
However, there are a few red flags here. For one, dividend growth has slowed significantly. The 5-year compound annual growth rate of the dividend is 3.49% over the past 3 years, it's slowed down even more to 1.98%.
现在，你在这里拥有的潜在机会是，它的股息率处于历史高位，因此你是在优化自己成本基础上的股息率。过去5年它处于第90百分位，而当前的前瞻股息率为5.86%，远高于目前美国国库券的水平。
Now, the potential opportunity you have here is that it's a historically high dividend yield, so you're optimizing your dividend yield on cost. It's in the 90th percentile over the past 5 years, and the current forward-looking dividend yield is 5.86%, so that's well above what T-bills would be right now.
如果你买入Realty Income，你是把它当作一项收益型投资来买的。
And if you're buying Realty Income, you're buying it as an income investment.
我提到了警示信号，其中之一是Realty Income增长放缓。另一个是，一些人开始担心可能出现的股息削减，我会就此谈谈我的看法。
Now, I mentioned red flags, and one of those was the slowing growth at Realty Income. The other is that some people are starting to get worried about a potential dividend cut, and I'll give you my thoughts on that.
我认为这来自人们看不同类型的派息率。过去12个月的自由现金流派息率现在是138%。不过，2025年时是73%。而如果你通常看的是盈利派息率，也就是基于GAAP每股收益计算的派息率，这是大多数网站上看到的典型派息率，那么Realty Income按这个标准一直是不可持续的，但他们仍然年复一年地支付股息。
Now, I think this comes from people looking at different types of payout ratios. A free cash flow payout ratio is now 138% over the trailing 12 months. However, it was 73% in 2025.
And if you normally look at an earnings payout ratio, so based on GAAP earnings per share, this is the typical payout ratio you see on most websites, Realty Income has always been unsustainable based on that, yet they continued paying a dividend every single year.
这在一定程度上是因为，这两者其实都不是你分析REIT时应该看的派息率类型。对于REIT，也就是房地产投资信托，你应该看的是运营资金，也就是FFO。
And that's partly because both of these really aren't the type of payout ratio you should be looking at for a REIT. For REITs, or real estate investment trusts, you should be looking at funds from operations. That would be FFO.
而当你查看运营资金时，我个人完全不担心Realty Income会削减股息。他们给出的全年指引是每股4.44至4.45美元的调整后运营资金。而如果你看这里的股息，是3.25美元。
所以，股息被他们年度运营资金覆盖得非常好。而且REIT通常的FFO派息率本来就在70%左右，这相当标准。我认为他们实际上被要求达到一定的比例。所以，在削减股息方面我没那么担心，但我担心的是Realty Income增长放缓。
And when you look at funds from operation, I'm not personally worried about dividend cut at all for Realty Income. They gave guidance for the full year of $4.44 to $4.45. This is for adjusted funds from operation per share.
And if you look at the dividend here, it's $3.25. So, the dividend is very well covered by their annual funds from operation. And REITs typically they're around that 70% FFO payout ratio anyways.
That's pretty standard. I think they're actually required to do some amount. So, I'm not as worried in the cut department, but I am worried about the slowing growth at Realty Income.
而当你回顾过去10年，这只股票表现并不好，即使把股息再投资计算在内也是如此。平心而论，如果回到近期高点，它的表现要好得多，但仍落后于大盘。我不确定Realty Income能否重回其历史上相当不错的总回报。
追溯到1994年，在那些月度股息再投资的情况下，它的复合年增长率为13%。但其中很大一部分收益来自你再投资的股息。
And when you look at the past 10 years, the stock hasn't been doing well, even with dividends reinvested. Now, to be fair, if you go back to the recent high, it's doing much better, but still underperforming the broader market.
I'm not sure whether Realty Income can ever get to its historically pretty good total return. Going back to 1994 with those monthly dividends reinvested, it's grown at a 13% compound annual growth rate.
But, a huge chunk of those gains are from your reinvested dividends.
而如果你看Realty Income的合理价值图，它现在看起来确实处于历史便宜的水平，尤其是基于股息来看。过去12个月的股息率中位数为5.91%。我们目前远高于这一水平。但这就是我担心的地方。
如果你投资这只股票，你投资它是因为股息。收益的大部分将来自那里。如果我们尝试用股息贴现模型计算内在价值，这只股票现在看起来其实并没有那么便宜，因为股息增长太低了。
And if you look at the fair value graph for Realty Income, it does look historically cheap right now, especially based on the dividend. The median yield over the trailing 12 months is 5.91%.
We're well above that right now. But, here's where I'm worried about it. If you're investing in the stock, you're investing it because of the dividend. That's where the majority of the returns are going to come from.
If we try and calculate the intrinsic value using the dividend discount model, the stock really doesn't look that cheap right now because the dividend growth is so low.
所以，这里会预先填入所有这些股票信息。而问题在于，三年复合年增长率是1.98%。所以，如果你想达到10%的年回报率，那就像是你的贴现率，你根本达不到。它给出的内在价值是40.39美元，意味着27%的下行空间。
这是在你想要基于股息获得10%年回报的情况下。即使它回到5年复合年增长率那种更高的增长，3.49%，你仍然达不到。相对于10%的门槛，它略微高估。
So, this pre-fills with all of those stock information. And this is the thing, the three-year CAGR is 1.98%. So, if you want to hit a 10% annual return, that would be like your discount rate, you're just not going to get there.
It gives an intrinsic value of $40.39, which implies 27% downside. This would be if you wanted 10% annual returns based on the dividend. Even if it goes back to that 5-year CAGR of higher growth, 3.49%, you're still not getting there. It's slightly overvalued that 10% hurdle.
所以，这就引出了一个问题：Realty Income股票现在适合谁，它是不是一个好的买入标的？我认为，如果你想跑赢标普500，你可能不想买入Realty Income，即使它处于52周低点。
不过，如果你只是想要可靠的月度股息收入，这是一个相当不错的选择。所以，如果你已退休，希望投资组合中有一部分放在某种每月都能获得可靠金额、并且随时间增长的东西上，那它值得考虑。
So, it starts to leave the question of who Realty Income stock is for right now, and is it a good buy? I think if you're someone who's trying to beat the S&P 500, you probably don't want to be buying Realty Income even at its 52-week low.
However, if you're someone that just wants reliable monthly dividend income, this is a pretty good option. So, if you're retired and want a part of your portfolio that's just in something where you're getting a reliable amount every month and it goes up over time, it's worth considering.
这个频道对 $O 的历次判断
Dividend Data 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。