原油看跌，高点更低，预期低点更低，年底可能触及60多美元或50多美元中段；12月合约可能跌破70美元。

If you just take the politics out of the equation, just take a look at this chart. And I I'm I'm showing you oil going back to the start of the war, late February, early March. Uh two-month trend upwards, and then two-month trend downwards, and it looks like it's on another two-month trend upwards. How would you evaluate this chart pattern here? Just looking at the technicals.

Very very bear very bearish chart making lower highs. If you go from the 120 tip, and every time we've had an issue in Iran, you've seen a lower high come in, and I expect to see lower lows. In fact, I would not be surprised at all if we get back into the '60s or mid-'50s before year's over.

Does this surprise you that the Iran war hasn't pushed oil up to above 150, and in fact we're talking about shorting it right now? No, I thought it was a short from the day If you remember, I thought it was a short the day it came out. I thought it was a selling opportunity of a lifetime. Uh there's no there's a glut of oil. The problem we have right now is they don't have enough refineries open to refine the oil that we have. But they'll get that solved out as well. It's it's This is a a very tricky situation and a very tricky comments, okay? You know, they could [clears throat] refine more, but of course they wouldn't be able to keep the prices up. If as I re- If you recall, I told you that the oil companies would have record profits when all this was going on. Everybody was worried, and of course they all had record profits. Shell, Exxon, all of them, because they're controlling these prices and keeping them too high because they're not refining enough, so they're creating the shortage. It's very similar thing that would happen in the cattle markets, where the packers were not putting out enough, so they kept prices artificially high. The price at the pump is dramatically way too high based on the fall of the price of oil since the peak at 120.

Yeah, prediction market, 62% chance on Kawachi that it's going to go WTI is going to go to 75 or above by year end. So, that isn't People aren't really I I think the markets are more or less aligning with you, because people aren't really that bullish on oil. Look at this, 85 or above, 38% only. If you go even higher, 90 or above, 34. So, right now, people are saying it's going to go people are predicting it's going to go flat or sideways. I mean, this sounds like to me, if I were just as an observer, as a consumer, probably good news. Nobody wants the oil prices to go up, unless you're an oil trader or oil company. Right? The average person doesn't want oil prices to go up. We also don't want interest rates to go up, and it looks like the government's trying to do everything they can to backstop that. So, I I know you've talked about the economy being bad, but I'm looking at these two pieces of news together, putting it together, things are looking pretty good. Oil prices coming down, or at least staying flat. Interest rates are going to get backstopped by the government from going up. You know, what what what's wrong with

I I I I I I have to I have to disagree. Okay. please do. Interest rates are only down a little bit, and they're still much higher than they were, and they have no chance of coming down further, unless there's a financial calamity where the Fed actually goes back into another full-blown program as they did in 2008, which I hope never happens again. And I'm not talking about the sell-off, I'm talking about the Fed intervention. Uh oil prices at the pump, maybe at the at the barrel level that we talk about, they're coming down a little bit, but at the pump, they're not coming down. And of course, the consumer can't afford to pay for it. Again, we go back

how much consumer debt there is, and it's way too much. And you cannot survive. And and again, this is just another sign, and I go back to 2008. We've had very similar action going into the September fascination, where Paulson said, "The banks are safe and sound." We're getting a lot of the same messages right now, and I'm saying that I disagree. I think that the banks got problems. I don't think they could pass a legitimate stress test. I think that's why the Federal Reserve is trying to do something. That's why the Fed's trying to do some things, and we know that eventually those things don't work and they end up failing. And again, you can go back and and look at when they've drained [snorts] the SPR and what's happened to oil, has it gone back up? You can go look at what happened to the yen after they intervene intervene there, and you can look right now at the bond market and watch this play out in lifetime.

So, if you had to take a guess as to where WTI ends by the end of the year, right now we're at 89 85 We're now we're at 85. Well, actually you have to you have to take into consideration, okay, in oil there's one thing you have to remember they have what they call, you know, there's a curve and oil has expiration. So, right now if if I look for you, okay, oil right now in December, so we'll call that the the end of the year, okay, December oil right now is trading $81. Okay? So, the fear premium is in the front month, which is what we're watching. I would say to you that it would not surprise me if if December oil, when it goes to comes to contract, is below is not below $70 a barrel.

What happens when the the contract price further out is lower than the spot price? What does that usually signal?

Well, that usually means there's fear in the front right now, so there's fear in the near term because of the uncertainty in what's going on in Iran and the chance for more war, the you know, the all the things that go along with it. But if you go out and further in the curve, I mean if we go out actually right now if we go out to August of 2027, so a year from now, oil is at $72 a barrel. Mhm. That's a that's a fear premium that is built in into the near term. That is called, for those who may understand the words, that is called backwardation. Yeah. Most markets trade in contango where the prices get more expensive as you buy into the future, and the oil market, especially when there is fear in front, it's called backwardation, where the front month is the most expensive, and and the back months are cheaper. It's kind of like the yield curve, when the yield curve starts to invert. Okay, so the the prices are reverting because the only that's trading right now is the fear premium that is trading in the current month.

Do you follow the future markets as as a guide? In other words, when when when something has backwardation, when the future's price is lower than the spot price, is that an indicator for you to sell? I mean, that must be too simple. It is, okay.

I mean, it's not that simple. Listen, you know, we can all want to sell, but if you were short oil at 90, when it went to 120, it wasn't a very comfortable feeling, right? You know, there's a there Listen, if you're doing your diligence and you're watching and you're watching markets, that's another indicator or another trigger that will help you as a trader. It's the same thing as if you're an options trader, the volatility on options. You know, there's no such thing as a cheap options. Options are fairly priced unless they're expensive. So, when volatility is falling, that usually means more stability, and there's not a great likelihood that volatility would bounce. But when you get volatility that gets so inexpensive, it makes more sense to be long volatility versus short volatility. So, in the oil market, if you [clears throat] have a reason to sell, especially if the market's in backwardation, that's another signal to you that if you've got a pretty good of a green light. Again, there's no guarantees, but it's a more of a green light to be able to sell.