$ON

OnSemi 在技术面上出现改善,RSI 有望形成看涨交叉,尽管其表现仍落后于 SMH ETF。

看涨他说的是几周内
《Options Corner: ON Making Bullish Crossover as SMH Outperforms》
Schwab Network发布 2026-09-23 · 13 段内容
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13 段内容
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是的,我们可以看到 OnSemi 的表现优于科技板块,但其表现低于 SMH 半导体交易所交易基金,OnSemi 上涨了约 46%。与此同时,SMH 基金上涨了约 88.8%。

Yes, we can see that OnSemi is outperforming the technology sector , but its performance is lower than that of the SMH semiconductor exchange-traded fund , where OnSemi rose by about 46%.

Meanwhile, the SMH fund rose by approximately 88.8%.

当我们考虑这个模拟和工业芯片领域的其他公司时,可以看到 ON 在这里处于接近顶端的位置,与 Analog Devices 和 Texas Instruments 并列。

When we think about the other names in this analog and industrial chip field, we can see " ON" near the top end here with Analog Devices and Texas Instruments.

这些模拟芯片通常是为重工业用途而设计的,而不是用于 CPU 和 GPU。这有点像把运输卡车和法拉利进行比较。两者擅长不同的任务,但这些芯片更多是为可靠性、耐用性等而设计的。

These analog chips are typically intended for heavy industrial use rather than CPUs and GPUs. It's somewhat like comparing a transport truck to a Ferrari. Both are good at different tasks, but these chips are designed more for reliability, durability and the like .

最近,我们可以看到这里形成了一个向下倾斜的通道。它在我们这两条白线之间的这些高度上相当一致。当你复制这条线并将其横跨这些低点时,它就为我们的价格走势提供了一个很好的区间。

Recently, we can see the formation of a channel with a downward slope here. It is fairly consistent along these elevations between our two white lines here. When you copy this line and place it across the dips , it gives you a good range for our price movement.

看起来我们昨天可能已经开始向上突破了,但这并不是一次真正强劲的突破;在这个阶段它非常轻微。

It looked like we might have started to break upwards yesterday, but it wasn't a really strong breakout ; it's very slight at this stage.

下一步是突破我们接近 76 的相对高点,填补这里接近 83 的缺口,然后分别突破 94 和 98 处更多的这些相对高点。

The next step is to break through our relative highs near 76, fill the gap here near 83, and then break through more of these relative highs at 94 and 98 respectively.

与此同时,在下行方面,我们这里有一个明显突出的缺口。64 到 66 之间的区域将是支撑区域。你可以看到,这也是我们最近触底的水平。因此,未来任何跌破这一点位的下跌都将是值得注意的。

At the same time, on the downside, we have a gap here that stands out clearly. The area between 64 and 66 will be the support area. You can see that this is also the level at which we recently hit rock bottom .

Therefore, any drop below this point will be something to be noted in the future.

当我们稍后看移动平均线时,我们开始看到趋势出现一些改善的迹象。价格已经上穿其最快的指数移动平均线,即代表一周的 5 日移动平均线。该均线目前位于 71.55。

When we look at the moving averages later, we begin to see some signs of improvement in the trend. The price has crossed its fastest exponential moving average here, which is the 5- day moving average representing one week. This average currently stands at 71.55.

我们也在几天内开始上穿蓝绿色的 21 日指数移动平均线,位于 73,它代表一个月的交易日。接下来,我们有位于 77 的年度均线,它是最长的,因此也是最重要的。

We also started within a few days to break above the 21-day exponential moving average in blue- green at 73, which represents one month of trading days. Next , we have our annual average at 77, which is the longest and therefore the most important.

相对强弱指数正在稳步移动,在突破这里的长期下降趋势线后,可能会上穿中位的 50 线。相对于我们的动量指标而言,那将是一个看涨的交叉。

The Relative Strength Index is moving steadily, possibly to cross the middle 50 line after breaking a long-term downtrend line here. That would be a bullish crossover with respect to our momentum indicator .

成交量分布显示,我们这里有一个大约在 68 到 74 之间的节点。上方区域大约在 80,下方区域大约在 60。

The trading volume file shows that we have a node here that is approximately between 68 and 74 . The areas above are about 80, and the areas below are about 60 .

所以,鉴于该板块的强势,以及我们在芯片公司中看到的这种重新活跃的迹象。在 11 月 20 日,我们这里的绿色基金就是我们可能开始考虑一笔试探性交易的地方,在未来 58 天内上下浮动 20.7%。

So, given the strength in this sector, and the type of renewed activity we are seeing among chip companies. Um, on November 20, our green fund here is where we might start looking at a trial deal, up or down 20.7% over the next 58 days.

所以,这笔交易是单次买入一份 75-85-90 蝶式合约,针对 11 月 20 日的看涨期权,折价成本为这里的 215。那么我们得到的是最大亏损 215,也就是我们在这里支付的折价成本。

最大盈利为 785,位于双重做空行权价,正好在 85 这一水平。如果我们达到 785 的最大盈利并随后开始超过它,我们将在 90 上方约 285 处达到所获权利金的最大值。所以,一笔普通的蝶式交易如果朝趋势方向走得太远,就可能从盈利转为亏损。

这笔交易避免了这整个问题。盈亏平衡点为 77.15,即向上增加 5.7%。如果我们在 90 的行权价上超过 23.3%,那就是我们达到最大值的地方。预期波动:20.7%。因此,它大致与那个预期波动区间的边缘相吻合。

So, the deal is a single purchase of a 75-85-90 butterfly contract for a November 20 call at a discounted cost of 215 here. What we have then is a maximum loss of 215, which is the discount cost we paid here.

The maximum profit is 785 at the double short strike price exactly at the 85 level here. If we reach our maximum profit of 785 and then start to exceed it, we will reach the maximum in terms of credit received above 90 at around 285.

So, a regular butterfly trade can turn from winning to losing if it goes too far in the direction of the trend here. This deal avoids that whole problem here. The breakeven point is 77.15, which is an increase of 5.7% upwards.

If we go beyond 23.3% at a strike price of 90, that's where we'll reach the maximum. Expected movement: 20.7%. Therefore, it roughly coincides with the edge of that expected movement zone.

观察点

RSI 上穿中位 50 线
上穿 50
近期技术图表分析
支撑看涨交叉论点;若 RSI 未能上穿或出现反转,则削弱该论点

这个频道对 $ON 的历次判断

Schwab Network 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。

2026-09-23看涨本条
是的,我们可以看到 OnSemi 的表现优于科技板块,但其表现低于 SMH 半导体交易所交易基金,OnSemi 上涨了约 46%。与此同时,SMH 基金上涨了约 88.8%。
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