ONON增长正在减速；当前20倍市盈率取决于未来增长率，存在进一步放缓的风险。
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关于这家瑞士运动服装品牌的一些评论。
Some comments on on the sportsware brand from Switzerland.
我们先从 On Holding 这只股票开始。就在几天前，我妻子还问：“On 到底怎么了？”最大的悲剧是罗杰·费德勒不再是亿万富翁了。我不知道他在做什么，也不知道他将如何应对这一局面。他现在只是一个贫穷的千万富翁。
Let's start with on on stock on holding. And uh even a few days ago, my wife said, "What's going on with Onon?" the biggest tragedy is that Roger Federer is not a billionaire anymore. I don't know what he's doing, how he will manage to cope with that. He's just a poor multi-und millionaires.
但他也换掉了 On 的鞋子。所以这个品牌出了一些状况。
But he's also changing shoes from on on. So there's something going on with the brand.
我们最近关注了一家时尚类上市公司。这总是值得思考的。几年前先跌后涨，表现强劲，而现在显著下跌，这意味着增长正在减速。市盈率为 20。我稍微研究了一下情况，净销售额仍在增长，但增速不再那么高。
We have a recent fashion listing. That's always something to think about. a few years down then up booming and now significantly down which means growth is decelerating. P ratio of 20. I've looked a little bit at the situation and net sales are still growing but not at the higher rates.
对于时尚业务来说，有一点非常重要：每当美国销售开始停滞时，分析师就会恐慌，这就像是对全球接下来会发生什么的预告，起初这对股价非常不利。
And something very important with fashion businesses. Whenever US sales starts to stagnate, analysts panic and then it is like an annunciation of what will happen next globally and that is terrible for the stock at first.
我们可以看到这里的增长率很高，达到 20%、30%，而现在降到了 13%。新的时尚品牌怎么了？它们只有在不再酷之前才显得酷。它们可以在利基市场发展，然后开始扩大规模，而这非常非常冒险。
And we can see here huge growth rates 20 30 and now we are at 13. What's going on with new fashion brands? Those are cool until those aren't. And they can develop in a niche market and then they start to grow bigger and that is very very risky.
总之，人会变。Rich Roll 变了，Stephen Curry 变了，情况已不如从前，这是一个巨大的风险。同样的事情也可能发生在 On 身上。
Anyway, people change. Rich roll goes Stephen Curry goes it isn't as it was and that is a huge risk. Same thing can happen to on on
然后我稍微看了一下数据，增长迅猛，达到了 30 亿美元的规模，利润率良好，一切看起来都不错；接着销售额开始下降，问题是 On 能否在市盈率为 20 的情况下实现增长？如果增长 10%，那还可以；如果增长更高，比如 20%，那就是便宜的。
then I look a little bit the numbers booming reaching the three billion situation good profit margin everything looks good then the sales start to go lower and the question is will on grow with a P ratio of 20 if they grow 10% it's okay if they grow higher 20% then it is cheap
分析师担心销售放缓，因为如果这种情况重演，销量越来越低，那就变得非常糟糕。一些分析师建议买入以建设未来的增长能力，但另一些人则下调目标价，认为缺乏可见性，让我们看看他们能否实现规模化。
the analysts are concerned on slowing sales because if that repeats goes lower and lower then it gets very ugly. Some analysts say buy constructive capacity for future growth but some say lower targets no visibility let's see if they can scale.
分析师的预期是积极的，盈利随时间增长。但你可以看到，随着股价下跌，分析师会在事后调整他们的目标价，现在他们已经开始调整了。因此，如果出现进一步的下跌或放缓，他们会跟随调整，但除了一个强烈卖出评级外，所有人都将其视为良好的买入机会。
The analyst estimates are positive growing earnings over time. But you can see analyst as the stock price goes lower then after it happens they adjust their stock prices and now they have started adjusting. So if there is an more decline slowdown they will adjust following but everyone sees it as a good buy except one as a strong sell.
这个频道对 $ONON 的历次判断
Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。