将 Oracle 作为小型、高风险仓位买入；强劲基本面被严重的债务/利息支出问题所抵消。
逐段跳播
接下来第二个话题，我们要谈的是 Oracle 和 Adobe。它们的财报已经公布了。我想分享一下我的看法和观点，说说我喜不喜欢这两只股票，诸如此类的事情。
Second subject up here we're going to talk about Oracle and Adobe. Their earnings have come out. I want to share my opinion and perspectives on if I like those stocks, if I don't, those sorts of things.
Oracle。听着。数字是不错的。这里给个 A- 的评级，好吗？公司营收增长了 30%。这是个强劲的数字，而且我们看的是固定汇率口径，看这个口径一直很重要，对吧？
Oracle. Listen. The numbers are good. It's an A- minus grade here, okay? Revenue's up 30% for the company. That's a strong number and we're looking at a constant currency basis, always important to look at that, right?
不过，他们确实有一些问题。一个是云和软件的运营费用。这项增长了 77%。而相比之下，云业务只增长了 62%——这仍然是个很棒的数字——但你的费用端增长了 77%，对吧？还有，看软件业务，实际上是下降了 3%。
所以，这就不妙了。再看硬件，那边增长了 58%，而营收只增长了 15%。所以，这些都不是好数字，这也是我给他们 A- 的一个很大原因，就是因为这两个项目。
Now, they did have some some problems. One is cloud and software operating expense. That was up 77%. Now, that's versus cloud, which was only, you know, only, it's still a great number, up 62%, but you're up 77% as far as your expense goes, right? And then also, when we're looking at software, that was actually a 3% decrease. So, that was no bueno. And then hardware, that 58% growth there versus only 15% revenue growth. So, those were not good numbers and that's a big reason why I gave them an A- minus cuz of those two line items there.
至于销售和营销、研发、一般及行政费用，他们把这些都控制得非常好。这非常令人印象深刻。他们实际上把其中一些项目在同比基础上降了下来。所以，非常令人印象深刻。
Now, as far as sales and marketing, R&D, G&A, they kept all those in check very nicely. That was very impressive. They actually brought some of those down on a year-over-year basis. So, very impressive.
然后，他们这里确实有一些很大的助力，这一点很重要，需要理解。这些算是比较一次性的类别。比如无形资产摊销，之前占营收的 3%，现在降到了 1%；还有重组及其他，本季度只占 1%，而去年同期是 3%。
所以，这些让运营费用看起来比本来要好得多，好吗？
And then, they did have some big helps here that's it's important to understand. These are kind of like more one-offish categories. Like amortization intangible assets, you know, that was a 3% of revenue hit before, now it's down 1% and then restructuring other, that was only a 1% hit in the quarter versus 3% at the same time last year. So, those helped the the operating expenses look much better than they would have been, okay?
所以，这一点值得记住，运营费用增长了 18%，但当你的营收增长 30%、运营费用增长 18% 时，你的盈利能力就会爆发，对吧？而这正是我们看到的情况。公司运营利润同比增长了 57%，对吧？
So, just something to kind of keep in mind there, but operating expenses up 18%, but when your revenue's up 30%, your operating expenses up 18%, you're going to your profitability's is to explode, right? And that's exactly what we saw. Operating income was up 57% for the company year-over-year, right?
利息支出也在爆发式增长，这可不妙。公司利息支出同比增长了 55%。所以，这家公司有严重的债务问题。如果你不了解 Oracle，只要明白：利润表整体很棒，营收很棒，盈利能力甚至也相当棒，但他们有资产负债表问题。
而且他们还在不断借更多的债、更多的债、更多的债，对吧？而你处在过去 15 到 20 年我们确实经历的高利率环境中，所以这并不理想，对吧？
Interest expense is also exploding, that's not good. Interest expense was up 55% for the company year-over-year. So, this company has a major debt problem. If you don't know Oracle, just understand like great income like generally great income statement, great revenue company, and even pretty great profitability company, but they got balance sheet problems. And they just keep taking on more debt, more debt, more debt, right? And you're in a higher interest rate environment that certainly we've been in in the past 15-20 years, and so it's not ideal, right?
仅最新一个季度的利息支出就超过了 14 亿美元。这相当于他们营收的 8%。营收的 8% 就这么拿去付利息支出了。不是还本金，只是利息支出，女士们先生们。这是个很大的数字，而且在恶化，而且在这里会先变得更糟才会好转，好吗？
Interest expense alone for this latest quarter was, you know, over 1.4 billion dollars. That was 8% of their revenues. 8% of their revenues just went to trying to pay interest expense. Not the debt down, just interest expense, ladies and gentlemen. That's a big number, and it's getting worse, and it's going to get worse before it gets better here, okay?
现在，公司净利润同比增长了 63%，所以这是个非常强劲的数字，增加了 47 亿美元。摊薄每股收益为 1.56 美元，而去年同期是 1.01 美元，那是 50% 以上的增长吧？
Now, net income grew 63% for the company on a year-over-year basis, so very strong number there, up 4.7 billion dollars. Diluted EPS a dollar 56 versus dollar 01, was that 50 plus percent growth there?
所以，总体 A- 的评级，对 Oracle 来说相当不错了，但他们有利息支出问题。这些利息支出问题会变得更糟。这家公司有资产负债表问题，对吧？
So, overall A- minus grade, pretty dang good for Oracle, but they got interest expense problems. Those interest expense problems are going to get worse. They got balance sheet problems at this company, right?
所以，Oracle，我并不排斥这只股票。它的前瞻市盈率很低，两年期前瞻市盈率也很低，但你要明白，人们会想要——他们只会想以折价来买这只股票，因为资产负债表问题。而且如果你看 CDS 市场，就 Oracle 而言，情况并不好。
So, Oracle, I I don't mind the stock. It has a you know, a low forward P, low two-year forward P, but just understand, people are going to want to get They're They're going to only want to buy the stock at a discount because of the balance sheet problems. And if you look at, you know, the CDS market, like it's it's not great when it comes to Oracle.
所以，除了债务和资产负债表之外，它在各方面都是一家令人印象深刻的公司。所以，你要明白，这可能是未来五年一只赚钱的股票，但如果事情变糟，我的意思是，那可能会变得非常难看。当我们谈到这家公司必须支付的这种利息支出、这家公司的资产负债表问题时，那是很严重的。
So, it's an impressive company on everything except debt and the balance sheet. And so, you know, you just got to understand this could be a money-making stock over the next five years, but if things go south here, I mean, it could get really ugly. When we're talking about this sort of interest expense this company has to pay, the balance sheet problems at this company, it's it's severe.
所以，Oracle 是他们——我会买 Oracle 的股票吗？我的意思是，我会有兴趣买，但只作为一个小仓位。我实际上必须把它当作一只风险股来对待，而你可能不会把它看作风险股，因为它的市值——它是 4000 多亿美元的市值，对吧？
但是，我必须把买 Oracle 看作实际上是在买一只风险股，因为它的利息支出变得如此沉重，而且还会变得糟糕得多，也因为资产负债表。
So, Oracle's one of the stocks they would I buy Oracle stock? I mean, I'd be interested in buying it, but as a small position. I have to actually treat it as a risky stock, and you might not think of it as a risky stock cuz of market cap of it's a $400 billion plus dollar market cap, right? But, I have to think of Oracle as actually buying a risky stock because of how heavy that interest expense is getting, and it's going to get a lot worse, and because of the balance sheet.
这个频道对 $ORCL 的历次判断
Financial Education 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。