$ORCL

Oracle 具备投资机会,因其估值相对 AI 同业偏低,且拥有积压订单和营收增长等强劲基本面,尽管说话者目前尚未持有显著仓位。

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《3 AI Stocks Down Big That Could Explode From Here!!》
Jose Najarro Stocks发布 2026-09-13 · 3 段内容
01:08/ 打开原视频

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3 段内容

第二个是 Oracle,股票代码 O RCL。我们有 Oracle,它显然是 AI 基础设施领域的巨头。遗憾的是,从某些高点算起,该股已下跌近 50%,实际上还略高一些,达到 52%。

The second one is going to be Oracle, ticker O RCL, We have Oracle that's obviously a massive player in the AI infrastructure. Unfortunately, from some of its peaks, the stock is down nearly 50%, actually a little bit higher than that, 52%.

Oracle 又处在有意思的价位上,150 美元,对吧?财报发布后现在是 150 美元,而我认为这份财报很不错。年初至今,该股已下跌近 46%。而且正如我们从它的一年高点、52 周高点看到的,该股已下跌近 54%。

Oracle sitting at again interesting levels, $150, right? $150 right now after earnings, which I thought earnings were great. Year to date, the stock is down nearly 46%. And like we saw from its one-year high uh 52- week high, the stock is down nearly 54%.

那么 Oracle 让我兴奋的是什么?第一点是,现在 Oracle 的远期市盈率大约为 18 倍。这是一家 AI 基础设施企业。我看不出为什么一家 AI 基础设施企业的市盈率不该在 25 倍左右的中段。

我认为这里有机会,尤其是如果这家公司在其 OCI,也就是 Oracle 云基础设施上确实做得极其出色的话。而我们看到情况正是如此。我的意思是,总营收预计将加速增长。我们看到那条紫色线、那条虚线不断走高。

到 5 月 27 日,你会看到营收同比增长约 38%。随着这家公司继续建设更多基础设施,那部分营收将继续加速增长。他们拥有极其庞大的积压订单。他们提到积压订单大约为 6400 亿,其中约一半将在未来 36 个月内转化为营收。

他们还提到客户正带着预付款前来。我们看到他们的经营性现金流增加了,因为很多公司正在以预付款的形式支付,或者自带 GPU。所以资本开支在增加,但这并不意味着 Oracle 需要拿出或抽出更多现金,因为在这部分资本开支中,你同时也获得了相当可观的预付款,这一点我觉得对 Oracle 来说相当令人兴奋。

而这实际上对整个行业都非常看涨。我们在所有 NeoCloud 玩家、所有 AI 基础设施玩家身上都看到了这一点。如果你想知道风险是什么,对我来说,风险显然是如果 AI 基础设施不再被需要,如果我们过度建设,Oracle 和许多这类 NeoCloud 玩家都会失败。

这就是风险,对吧?这一点毫无疑问,尤其是考虑到 Oracle 背负着巨额债务。但如果 AI 的故事真如我所相信的那样疯狂,而我也可能是错的,对吧?这就是为什么每个投资者都需要提出自己的理由,需要选边站。

如果你在投资这类公司,你需要明白,即便 AI 很疯狂,也可能出现某种完全打乱需求的情况,或任何其他导致看跌情景的因素,也许是你没有预见到的。所以,要理解每一项投资的风险。那么,他们最近这份财报让我兴奋的一点是,他们提到在第一季度到期续约的 GPU 中,这些产能以比先前合同高出 20% 的溢价续约或转售。

这些 GPU 大多数已使用 4 年或更久,这很疯狂,因为当时的许多模型都认为这些 GPU 不会再赚多少钱了。但答案是肯定的。它们仍在赚钱,而且赚的钱比先前合同多得多。所以对他们来说,一旦你付清了 GPU 的成本,这些 GPU 现在就是在以高利润率赚钱,这对一家拥有大量基础设施的公司来说极其看涨。

他们也是 OpenAI 的主要玩家,对吧,本季度他们交付了约 131,000 块 GPU。八个园区中已有六个、代表 618 兆瓦和 75% 的总产能,现已交付给 OpenAI。

最近发布的 GPT6 Astro,非常惊艳,就是在他们的场地上训练的,他们正在世界各地建设多吉瓦级园区,进展极其顺利。所以风险是,如果 AI 失败会怎样;增长则是,如果 AI 真如它那样疯狂会怎样?

如果是这样,那么 Oracle 做得极其出色。而且随着大量 GPU 来自续约,尤其是那些较旧的 GPU,它们将为他们赚钱,帮助重建经营性现金流,并能够在整体 AI 基础设施上投入更多。

所以,Oracle 是一个有意思的标的。我会说,Oracle 我持有得不多。如果持有的话,我记不清是不是低于 1% 到 2%,但那是因为我主要持有其他 NeoCloud 玩家。

我显然在 Core Wee 有重仓。我在 Naian 有重仓,这就是我可能在 Oracle 上落后的唯一原因。如果我没有那些仓位,Oracle 肯定会排在我的名单最前面,或者如果我在打造一个类似 NeoCloud 的 ETF 一篮子组合,Oracle 100% 会入选。

So what gets me excited about Oracle? The first thing is now Oracle is trading at forward PE ratios of roughly 18. This is an AI infrastructure player. I can't see why an AI infrastructure player wouldn't be trading in the mid20s, 25s.

I think there's opportunity there, especially if if this company is truly doing extremely well in its OCI, which is Oracle Cloud Infrastructure. And we see that's the case. I mean, total revenue is expected to accelerate.

We see that purple line that dash line continues to go higher and higher. And by May 27th, you see about 38% year-over-year growth in revenue. As this company continues to build out more infrastructure, that revenue is going to continue to accelerate.

They have a massive, massive backlog. They mentioned somewhere around 640 billion in backlog and about half of that is going to become revenue in the next 36 months. They are also mentioning that customers are coming with prepayments.

We saw their operating cash flow increase because a lot of companies are giving prepayments in value for or bring in their own GPUs. So capex is increasing, but it doesn't mean Oracle needs to build out or pull out more cash because within that capex, you're also getting a nice amount of prepayments with one thing that I found pretty exciting for Oracle.

And this is actually very bullish for the whole industry. We're seeing it across all NeoCloud players, across all AI infrastructure players. And if you want to know the risk, to me, the risk is obviously if AI infrastructure is not needed, if we overbuild, Oracle and a lot of these NeoCloud players are going to fail.

That's the risk, right? There's no other question about it, especially with Oracle having the massive debt. But if the AI story is as crazy as I believe, and I could be wrong, right?

And that's why every investor needs to make their case, needs to pick a side. If you are investing in these types of companies, you need to understand that even though AI is crazy, there could be something that completely throws off the demand or anything else to a bearish scenario that maybe you did not foresee.

So, understand the risk of every investment. So, the thing that got me excited from their most recent earnings is they mentioned that of the GPUs that came up for renewal in quarter 1, the capacity was renewed or resold at 20% premium to prior contracts.

The majority of those GPUs are 4 years or older, which is crazy because a lot of the modeling back then, you thought that these GPUs were not going to make much money anymore. But the answer is yes.

They're still making money and they're making way more money than prior contracts. So for them once you pay off your GPUs these GPUs are now just making money at high margins and that's extremely bullish for a company that has a lot of infrastructure.

They are also the main player of OpenAI right they delivered about 131,000 GPUs this quarter. They have already six of the eight campuses representing 618 megawatt and 75% of total capacity have now been delivered to OpenAI. the recent release GPT6 Astro which is amazing was trained on their site and they're building multi-gigawatt scale campuses all over the world and they are progressing extremely well.

So the risk is what happens if AI fails the growth is what if AI is as crazy as it is? If it is, then Oracle is doing extremely well. And with a lot of these GPUs coming from Renew, especially those older GPUs, those are going to be making money for them and helping rebuild that operating cash flow and be able to spend a lot more in overall AI infrastructure.

So, Oracle is an interesting one. I would say I Oracle I don't own much. If I do, I I can't remember if it is sub one 2%, but it's because I'm mainly in other NeoCloud players.

I obviously have a big position in Core Wee. I have a big position in Naian and that's the only reason I may be lagging here on Oracle. If I didn't have those positions, Oracle would definitely make it on the top of my list or if I was creating kind of like a ETF blanket of Neoclouds, Oracle would 100% fit that list.

这个频道对 $ORCL 的历次判断

Jose Najarro Stocks 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。

2026-09-13看涨本条
第二个是 Oracle,股票代码 O RCL。
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