PANW的平台化战略及强劲的第四季度营收共识支持其积极的增长前景,尽管面临其他供应商的竞争压力。
逐段跳播
Palo Alto Networks 一直被视为网络安全领域的真正领导者之一,但这也是一个竞争相当激烈的领域,因此当你在评估其财报事件时,考虑到其一些同行刚刚发布了非常强劲的报告,你会如何看待这只股票?
Palo Alto Networks has been seen as one of these real leaders in cyber security, but this is also pretty competitive space and so as you assess an earnings event coming off of the heels of really strong reports from some of its peers, how do you think through this name?
是的,我认为这非常有效地概括了情况。Palo Alto 本身在收入前景方面非常有吸引力,而且我认为其整体财务表现也很出色,这实际上与整个网络安全市场领域正在发生的事情是同步的。
Yeah, I think that definitely frames it very effectively. That is Palo Alto in itself is very attractive in terms of its revenue picture and I would say it's overall fiscal performance and that is actually alongside what's going on and across the entire cyber security market segment.
因此,我认为市场对第四季度 33.5 亿美元的共识预期将会实现,这也表明同比增长 32%。而且你可以将这一点与 Palo Alto Networks 我认为正在非常有效地实现差异化的事实结合起来。
也就是说,它正在推动客户将其多供应商 IT 堆栈整合到其统一平台上。
And so I think the consensus for 3.35 billion in Q4 will ring true and what that is also indicating is a 32% year-over-year acceleration. And you can combine that with the fact that Palo Alto Networks I think is differentiating itself very effectively. That is it's pushing its customers to consolidate. It, you know, their multi-vendor IT stacks onto its unified platform.
因此,我正在关注剩余履约义务的增长以及净留存率,以证明企业确实致力于与 Palo Alto Networks 签署这些更大的多年期平台协议,从而支撑其未来几年的增长预测。
And so as a result, I'm looking for growth in terms of the remaining performance obligations and also net retention rates to demonstrate that enterprises are indeed committed to signing these larger multi-year platform deals with Palo Alto Networks and thus underpin their growth projections over the next couple of years.
因此,这一切看起来都是积极的,不仅对 Palo Alto Networks 而言,而且对整个网络安全领域也是如此。
So this is all looking positive in terms of not just Palo Alto Networks uniquely, but also the entire cyber security segment.
这对 Palo Alto 来说显然是成功的,因为他们试图成为,如果用外行的话说,几乎是网络安全的一站式商店。
It's been obviously successful for Palo Alto as they sort of look to be, if I use layman, almost like a one-stop shop for cyber security.
Palo Alto 真的能实现这个平台吗?他们所谓的平台化是什么?当这些大公司仍然需要多元化时,很难说清楚。这是一个很好的问题,我认为这切中了要害,将决定 Palo Alto 的成功,不仅是在下个季度,而且我认为肯定是在未来两年以上。
Can Palo Alto actually accomplish this platform is it What is it? Platform seditization that they call it? Have trouble saying that when the needs to be diversified are also still there for these big companies. That's a great question and I think that hits the nail on the head as to what will define Palo Alto's success, not just, you know, for the next quarter, but certainly I would say over the next two years plus.
而且,是的,他们的平台化战略是与其他参与者一起进行的。尽管存在一些固有的担忧,但我认为它会成功的原因是,许多组织确实在寻找一个值得信赖的顾问来帮助简化或理顺所有这些不同的孤岛。
And that is, yeah, their platformization strategy is something that is ongoing with other players. And the reason why I think will be successful despite some of the built-in concerns is that many organizations out there are looking really for a trusted advisor to help simplify or streamline all these different silos.
因此,Palo Alto 提供了我认为非常令人印象深刻的折扣或收入确认延迟机制等,以帮助鼓励企业和组织选择他们的特定平台。
And so, as a result, Palo Alto is offering, I would say, a very impressive discounting or you know, revenue recognition delay mechanisms and so forth to help, you know, encourage the enterprises, the organizations out there to go with their specific platform.
因此,对 Palo Alto Networks 来说,这可能是一个竞争方面的担忧,即 Cisco 实际上可能在平台化战略方面超越他们。
So, that could be a competitive concern for Palo Alto Networks is that Cisco could in effect outflank them in terms of, you know, the platformization strategy.
不过,我认为会有足够的空间,因为一些组织的架构方式,他们会更倾向于选择 Palo Alto 来真正专注于安全部分。
So, I think there'll be enough to go around though where some organizations, because of the the way they are set up, will prefer a Palo Alto to really focus on the security part.
但也会有其他组织说:“我需要网络和安全相结合。”或者我需要来自这些其他参与者之一的 AI 堆栈。因此,所有这些都将创造更多的竞争开放性,但 Palo Alto 有大量的机会可以利用。
But there'll be other organizations that say, "Hey, I need network and security combined." Or I need the AI stack, you know, combined from one of these other players. And so, all this is going to create, you know, more competitive open-endedness, but there's plenty of opportunity for Palo Alto to capitalize.
我的意思是,这被称为 Palo Alto Networks 特有的平台化战略,但在所有这些不同的公司中,甚至在网络安全之外,它也被以同样的方式看待。
I mean, what has been coined as like a Palo Alto Networks specific platformization really strategy, but it's it's being seen, I mean, in in that same regard across all of these various companies, even outside of cybersecurity.
但 Palo Alto Networks 一直在忙于通过收购来扩展其平台和能力。还有 Cronosphere,在可观测性方面,Palo Alto 已经表明它拥有有效优化这些收购的 DNA,从而改善了 ARR 以及 RPO 指标,而且还有基础的收入增长,不仅是按季度,更是按年度。
But where Palo Alto Networks has been busy is they've also used acquisitions to expand their platform and capabilities. and also Cronosphere when it comes to the observability part, the Palo Alto has shown that it has the DNA to effectively optimize these acquisitions and as a result improve uh metrics such as ARR as well as uh again the RPO metrics, but also the underlying uh you know, revenue growth quarter by quarter, let alone on an annual basis.
而且支撑这一点的是,我认为 Palo Alto Networks 仅到 2028 年就拥有 3000 亿美元的总可寻址市场。
And what is also underpinning this is that Palo Alto Networks I identify as having a 300 billion total addressable market just by 2028 alone.
因此,只要 Palo Alto Networks 对这些新资产进行常识性的整合,并产生这些成果,那么是的,我们可以说这对 Palo Alto Networks 来说是一次成功,而且它实际上正在增强其相对于其他安全领域竞争对手的整体竞争力,这些竞争对手可能没有同样的产品组合广度,因为他们没有在这些类型的收购上扣动扳机。
So, in essence, as long as Palo Alto Networks is doing common sense integration of these new assets, and it's resulting in these outcomes, then yes, we can say this has been a success for Palo Alto Networks and that it's actually strengthening its overall competitiveness relative to other uh security specific rivals who may not have that same portfolio breadth because they haven't pulled the trigger on uh these types of acquisitions.
暂且不论估值、重新定价、市场风险、行业性抛售,当你专门看 Palo Alto 时,也许相对于其同行,有什么可能突出的潜在风险,比如出现小问题?
Setting aside, you know, valuation, repricing, market risk, sector-wide sell-off, when you look at Palo Alto specifically, maybe in relation to its peers, what if any stands out as a potential risk of like a hiccup?
如果例如,没有足够多的组织决定采用 Palo Alto 的方法,因为他们可能选择更广泛的方法,那么它可能会出错。
Uh it can go wrong if for example, not enough organizations decide to go with Palo Alto for its approach because they might opt for an even broader approach.
具体到 AI 安全架构,存在一种担忧,即它的实施方式可能再次需要来自 AI 栈参与者(如 Google 和 Microsoft 等)的更原生方法。
And when it comes uh specifically to AI uh security architectures, uh there is uh the concern that how it's being implemented might again require a more native approach that's coming from you know, the AI stack uh players such as the Googles and the Microsofts and so forth.
因此,在整体网络安全领域,我不认为存在对 Alto Networks 独有的担忧。但同样,关键在于这些不断演变的竞争动态,它们可能使这些竞争对手有可能超越 Palo Alto Networks,但肯定也会再次减少其总可寻址市场。
And so, I don't I there is a concern that's unique to Alto Networks when it comes to the overall cybersecurity segment. But again, it's about these evolving competitive dynamics that can enable these competitors to maybe outflank Palo Alto Networks, but certainly again reduce its total addressable market.
令人敬畏的势头当然在进入这份报告之前已经大幅上升。因此,对于一只已经攀升的股票,这里期望很高。我的意思是,仅本月就上涨了约 14%。
Awesome momentum has of course went up pretty substantially into this report. So high expectations here for a name that's climbed. I mean about now 14% just this month alone.
这个频道对 $PANW 的历次判断
Schwab Network 在这只股票上共 2 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。