PANW 为持有评级；相对于利润率与 ROIC 的下滑，其估值过高（远期市盈率 68.6，DCF 公允价值 175 美元，而市价为 335 美元）。
逐段跳播
Palo Alto Networks 的营收增长因此正在加速。管理层预计 2027 财年增长至少 23%，并预计到 2028 财年自由现金流利润率达到 40%。
Palo Alto Networks is experiencing accelerating revenue growth as a result. The management team is forecasting at least 23% growth in the fiscal year 2027 and forecasting 40% free cash flow margin by fiscal year 2028.
那么，这是否让 Palo Alto Networks 的股票成为一个买入机会？让我们来看看这家公司的业务，一起回答这个问题。
So, does this make Palo Alto Networks stock a buying opportunity? Let's take a look at the business and answer that question together.
我觉得这张图很有意思，它展示了 Palo Alto 过去十年的营收增长。你可以看到最近出现的那个拐点，对吧？你可以看到营收一直在增长，但最近从 2026 年以来，你能看到那个拐点，增长的速度在加快，斜率在上升。
So, I think this chart here is really interesting looking at Palo Alto's revenue growth over the previous decade. And you can see more recently that inflection point, right? You see the revenue has been growing this entire time, but more recently since 2026, you can see that inflection point where the rate of increase is increasing, the slope is increasing.
这正是管理层在最新一季度的投资者财报电话会议上所谈到的：市场对其服务的需求正在加速，订单积压正在激增，而智能体 AI 的普及是造成这一现象的原因，而且这不太可能在短期内结束。
And that's what the management team was talking about in its latest quarterly earnings report to investors, how demand for its services are accelerating, the backlog is booming, and the proliferation of agentic AI is the cause for this, and it's unlikely to end anytime soon.
话虽如此，Palo Alto Networks 并没有因为这一营收增长而推动利润率扩张，这让我有点担忧。你可以看到这张图，展示了 Palo Alto Networks 过去十年的营业利润率。
它一直起起伏伏，对吧？其营业利润率轨迹此前也有过下行的时刻，但总体而言，过去十年的趋势是上升的，从 2017 年的 -15% 上升到最近一期的 6%。不过，大约一年前，或者说 2026 年早些时候，它曾高达 12.5%。
That being said, Palo Alto Networks is not driving profit margin expansion as a result of this revenue growth, which is a little bit troubling to me. So, you can see the chart here for Palo Alto Networks operating profit margin over the previous decade. And it's been up and down, right? There have been previous down moments in its operating profit margin trajectory, but for the most part, the trend has been higher over the previous decade, rising from -15% in 2017 to 6% in the most recent period. But, it was as high as 12 and 1/2% about a year ago or earlier in 2026.
所以，每当我看到一家公司的营收增长在加速，而营业利润率或整体利润率却在下降时，这向我表明，这种营收增长的质量没那么高。这些增长并非来自那么强劲的有机需求，而是以付出代价换来的。
And so, whenever I see a company's revenue growth accelerating while operating profit margins or profit margins overall are coming down, it shows me that the revenue growth is not as high of quality. It's not as strong of organic demand that these increases are coming at a cost.
我更希望看到一家公司的营收增长和营业利润率同时扩张，以体现规模经济效应。而 Palo Alto Networks 这里的情况并非如此。
I would much rather prefer a company's revenue growing and its operating profit margins expanding simultaneously in a demonstration of economies in scale. That's not what's happening here with Palo Alto Networks.
它在再投资，在创造新产品，进行了几笔收购等等，以推动部分增长，或者说把握部分增长。需求可能已经存在，但 Palo Alto Networks 可能需要做出一些调整，在某些成本领域增加投入，才能把握住这个机会。
It's reinvesting, it's creating new products, it's made a couple of acquisitions, etc., etc. to drive some of this growth or to capitalize on some of this growth. The demand might already be there, but Palo Alto Networks may needed to make a few adjustments, increase in some cost areas in order to capitalize on this opportunity.
同样，你可以看到该公司的投入资本回报率正在崩塌。它曾高达 45%，如今已降至仅 1.77%。所以，营收正在蓬勃发展，需求正在加速，这一点毫无疑问，但 Palo Alto Networks 能否在满足客户这些需求的同时，也改善盈利能力和利润率？
Similarly, you can see the company's return on invested capital collapsing. It reached a high as as high as 45% and it's now down to just 1.77%. So, revenue is booming, demand is accelerating, no question about that, but can Palo Alto Networks deliver on these demands from its customers while also improving profitability and profit margins?
我认为可以合理地假设，未来几年其利润率能够回升。这些成本本质上是短期的，是为了适应客户不断变化的需求、进行一些补强型收购等等。
I think it's reasonable to assume that over the next few years its margins can recover. These costs are short-term in nature, adjusting to the changing needs of its customers, making some bolt-on acquisitions, etc.
但短期内，利润率正承受压力。所以，Palo Alto 的股票在 2026 年大幅飙升。它涨了很多，我对此感到高兴。
But in the near term, the margins are under pressure. So, Palo Alto stock has soared in 2026. It's up significantly and I was happy about that.
记得在 2026 年初，我把 Palo Alto Networks 的股票评为买入机会。我已经把这只股票评为买入好几年了。
Remember to begin 2026, I ranked Palo Alto Networks stock as a buying opportunity. I've had the stock ranked as a buy for several years.
目前，Palo Alto Networks 的估值为 68.6 倍的远期市盈率，在我看来这似乎有点贵，因为利润率正在下滑，对吧？我们看了营业利润率，看了投入资本回报率。这些一直在呈下降趋势，而且它们一开始就不在很好的水平上。
Right now, Palo Alto Networks valuation is a forward PE of 68.6, which to me seems a little bit expensive because the margins are coming downwards, right? We looked at the operating profit margin, we looked at the return on invested capital. Those have been trending downward and they're not at very good levels to begin with.
所以，对于一家以 68 倍远期市盈率交易的公司来说，诚然它有几个不错的特征：营收增长加速、订单积压激增、管理层的预测在加速、自由现金流利润率预计到 2028 财年达到 40%。
这些都是了不起的数字，但就目前而言，它看起来不像是一家应该以接近 70 倍远期市盈率交易的业务。
So, for a company that's trading at a forward PE of 68, sure the company has several good characteristics, accelerating revenue growth, backlog is surging, management's forecasts are accelerating, free cash flow margin expected to reach 40% by fiscal 2028. Those are remarkable figures, but as it stands right now, it doesn't look like a business that should be trading at a forward PE close to 70.
所以，我也更新了我对 Palo Alto Networks 的现金流折现估值。我把预计这家业务从明年起每年将产生的自由现金流上调了约 2.5 亿美元。这产生了提高每股内在价值的效果，但它仍远低于当前市场价格，我的公允价值为 175。当前市场价格为 335。
So, I also updated my discounted cash flow valuation for Palo Alto Networks. I revised higher the amount of free cash flow I expect this business will generate by about 250 million per year starting next year. And that had the impact of increasing the intrinsic value per share, but it's still well below the current market price at 175 of my fair value. The current market price is 335.
所以，无论我是从现金流折现的角度看，还是从市场倍数的角度看，它都显得昂贵。在今年大幅上涨之后，Palo Alto Networks 的股票现在看起来估值偏高。
So, it looks rich whether I look at it on a discounted cash flow basis or whether I look at it on the market multiple basis. Palo Alto Networks stock looks rich now after the significant increase this year.
我提到过，今年大部分时间我都把这只股票评为买入机会。2026 年 8 月 7 日，我将其下调至持有。今天，我将重申这一持有评级。
So, I mentioned I've had the stock ranked as a buying opportunity for most of the year. On August 7th, 2026, I downgraded it to a hold. And today, I will reiterate that hold rating.
我认为估值已经变得偏高、涨过头了。我会等待更好的机会买入Palo Alto Networks的股票。
I think the valuation has gotten rich and ahead of itself. I'll wait for a better opportunity to buy Palo Alto Networks stock.
这个频道对 $PANW 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。