PATH 具备吸引力,值得买入;DCF 公允价值为 18.40 美元,而股价为 14 美元,意味着 31% 的上行空间,因为市场高估了 AI 对其增长中业务的风险。
逐段跳播
UiPath 正是那种人工智能本应消灭的公司之一。但事实相反,该公司在最近一个已完成的季度中报告营收同比增长 13%,首席执行官对其第二季度业绩感到满意。
UiPath is one of these companies that artificial intelligence was supposed to kill. Instead, the company reported revenue increasing 13% year-over-year in its most recently completed quarter, and the CEO is pleased with their second quarter results.
这是否让 UiPath 股票成为一个有吸引力的买入机会?因此,首席执行官兼创始人 Daniel Dines 表示,人工智能非但没有扼杀其业务,反而"正在扩大企业能够自动化的范围,同时增加了对编排、治理以及确定性自动化所提供的精确性的需求。
他们将 AI 智能体、机器人系统和人员汇聚在一起执行端到端流程的能力,使 UiPath 处于这一机遇的中心。"
Does this make UiPath stock an interesting buying opportunity? So, rather than killing its business, the CEO and founder Daniel Dines said, "AI is expanding what enterprises can automate, while increasing the need for orchestration, governance, and exactness that deterministic automation provides. Their ability to bring AI agents, robot systems, and people together to execute end-to-end process positions UiPath at the center of this opportunity."
这其实是 UiPath 已经在做的事情,对吧?通过他们的机器人流程自动化。UiPath 多年来一直在帮助企业实现流程自动化,对吧?智能体 AI,不就是这个吗?他们通过实施这些系统来帮助降低成本,这些系统针对的是重复性的工作,可以由机器人流程自动化和人工智能来完成,或者说是能力进步的增加,恰好帮助了 UiPath 能够为客户提供的东西。
Well, this is something that UiPath kind of already does, right? With their robotic process automation. UiPath has been helping enterprises automate processes, right? Agentic AI, isn't that what it is? To automate their processes for several years. They help reduce costs by implementing these systems that are repetitive, that can be done by robotic process automation and artificial intelligence or the increase in the advancements of capabilities have just helped what UiPath is able to offer their customers.
所以,我还没有看到 UiPath 因自动化、因人工智能而受到负面影响,但这并不意味着他们不会。这并不意味着这不是一个威胁。这并不意味着现在没有更多企业试图向其他企业推销与 UiPath 试图推销的类似的东西,对吧?
And so, I haven't seen UiPath experience a negative impact as a result of automation, as a result of artificial intelligence, but that doesn't mean they won't. That doesn't mean that it's not a threat. That doesn't mean that there aren't now additional enterprises that are trying to sell similar things that UiPath is trying to sell other enterprises, right?
UiPath 正试图说服企业相信,他们拥有更好的解决方案来降低成本并实现流程自动化,而 OpenAI、Anthropic 和 Google 则试图说服企业相信,他们拥有更好的方法来自动化流程、降低成本、提升能力。
UiPath is trying to convince enterprises that they have a better solution to lower their costs and automate processes, whereas OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google are trying to convince enterprises that they have a better method for automating process, reducing cost, improving capabilities.
就目前而言,他们都在受益,因为分配给重复性流程的企业资金数额存在如此强劲的顺风,大量资金正被花在劳动力上,而劳动力成本在上升、人才数量在减少,因此整个行业存在这种增长的顺风。所以,你可以看到 UiPath 的增长,也可以看到 OpenAI、Anthropic 以及其他 AI 大语言模型、智能体 AI 选项的增长。每个人都能增长,因为前方有如此巨大的机遇。
As of right now, they're all benefiting because the enterprise amount of dollars that's being allocated to repetitive process, there's such a tailwind, so much is being spent on labor and the cost of labor is increasing and the amount of talent is decreasing that there's that tailwind of growth in the industry overall. So, you can see growth in UiPath and you can see growth with OpenAI, Anthropic, and other AI large language models, agentic AI options. Everyone can grow because there's such a massive opportunity ahead.
引用一些估算,每年估计有 5 万亿到 20 万亿美元花在可以自动化、或可以用人工智能或 AI 智能体复制的流程上,这就是机遇,而且这个机遇每年都在增长。工人要求更高的工资,因此随着全球 GDP 不断增长,这一类别中花费的资金也在持续增长。
To, you know, quote some estimates, there's an estimated 5 to 20 trillion dollars that's being spent annually on processes that can be automated or processes that can be replicated with artificial intelligence or AI agents and that's the opportunity and that's a growing opportunity every year. Workers demand higher wages and so the amount of money that's being spent in this category as GDP is increasing worldwide continues to grow.
所以,UiPath 的年度经常性收入增长至 19.4 亿美元。其基于美元的净收入留存率高达 109%,令人印象深刻。这意味着现有客户在服务的第二年花在 UiPath 上的钱比第一年更多。
再次强调,这并不是一家正在输给人工智能的公司的迹象。
So, UiPath its annual recurring revenue increased to 1.94 billion. It's dollar-based net revenue retention rate impressive at 109%. This means existing customers are spending more money with UiPath in their second year of service than they were in their first year of service. Again, this isn't an indication of a company that's losing to artificial intelligence.
经营活动现金流为 3100 万美元,与 4.1 亿美元的营收相比,目前还不算特别令人印象深刻。资产负债表依然非常干净,14 亿美元,零债务。
Cash flow from operations at 31 million is not all that impressive yet compared to 410 million dollars in revenue. The balance sheet is pristine still, 1.4 billion dollars with zero debt.
展望未来,管理团队预测截至 2027 年 1 月 31 日的年度经常性收入将在 20.65 亿美元区间。这将是相较于 19.4 亿美元年度经常性收入的增长。
Looking ahead, the management team is forecasting annual recurring revenue in the range of 2.065 billion as of January 31st, 2027. That would be an increase from annual recurring revenue of 1.94 billion.
所以,该公司的业务正在增长。他们正在获得更多客户,这些客户签署的协议正在增加他们的年度营收、年度经常性收入。目前还没有迹象表明他们在显著地输给人工智能,这对投资者来说是好消息。
So, the company's business is growing. They're getting more customers that are signing arrangements that are increasing their annual revenue annual recurring revenue. No signs yet that they're losing significantly to artificial intelligence, and that's good news for investors.
但投资者对 UiPath 的估值,仿佛他们将会输给人工智能。至少他们会失去一些定价权,会失去一些增长机会。与这项技术被引入之前相比,他们的处境没那么好了。因此,UiPath 目前的远期市盈率仅为 15 倍。
仅为 15 倍,我认为对于这类业务来说,这是一个有吸引力的价格,其利润率在增长、现金流在增长、年度经常性收入在增长,且净收入留存率具有吸引力。
But investors are valuing UiPath as if they will lose to artificial intelligence. At least they'll lose some pricing power, they'll lose some growth opportunity. They're not as well off compared to before the technology was introduced. And so, UiPath is now trading at a forward price to earnings of just 15. Just 15, which I think is an attractive price for this kind of business with its growing margins, growing cash flow, growing annual recurring revenue with an attractive net revenue retention rate.
所以,当我用我的贴现现金流模型来看时,这只股票也显得被低估了。我计算出该业务的公允价值为 18.40 美元。当前市场价格为 14 美元。因此,我计算出较当前市场价格有 31% 的上涨空间。
So, the stock also looks undervalued when I look at it using my discounted cash flow model. I calculated a fair value of the business at $18.40. The current market price is $14. So, I've calculated a 31% upside from its current market price.
所以,综上所述,我确实认为 UiPath 股票在当前市场价格下是一个有吸引力的买入机会。我对这一评级的信心水平为中等,信心程度为中等。不是很高,也不是很低,正好在中间,因为存在关于人工智能的那种不确定性。
它可以朝那么多方向发展。这项技术如此动态、变化如此迅速,这降低了我对这一评级的信心水平。
So, all that being said, I do think UiPath stock is an attractive buying opportunity at current market prices. I have a medium conviction level on that ranking, a medium confidence level. Not very high, not very low, just in the middle because of that uncertainty regarding artificial intelligence. It can go so many directions. The technology is so dynamic, changing so rapidly, that lowers my confidence level in this ranking.
这个频道对 $PATH 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。