PEP是一个良好的入场点；估值处于历史低位，尽管增长放缓，股息仍然安全。
逐段跳播
我52周低点名单上的第二只股票是PepsiCo，其股票代码为PEP。它是一只股息之王，意味着它已连续50多年持续增加其年度股息。
The second stock on my 52-week low list is PepsiCo, whose ticker symbol is PEP. It is a dividend king, meaning it has been consistently increasing its annual dividend for more than 50 years.
他们拥有众多优秀顶级品牌的组合，目前正以历史性折价交易。该股在过去5年下跌了15%，在过去一年下跌了8.4%。它目前接近其52周低点。
They have a portfolio of many great top brands and are currently trading at historic discounts. The stock has fallen 15% in the last 5 years and 8.4% in the last year. It is currently near its 52-week low.
我最近制作了一个关于PepsiCo股票的完整视频，其中我提到这是该股在过去42年中最高的股息率。你没听错，42年。上一次股息率达到如此高位是在1984年，我会深入探讨这一点。
I recently made a full video on PepsiCo stock , where I mentioned that this is the highest dividend yield for this stock in the last 42 years. You heard that right, 42 years. The last time yields were this high was in 1984 , and I'll go into that in depth.
所以，这里你可以看到他们悠久的股息增长历史。这是一家按季度派发股息的公司。在过去10年中，股息增长了96%。这是7%的复合年增长率。
So, here you see their long history of dividend growth. This is a quarterly dividend paying company. In the last 10 years, dividends have increased by 96%. This is a 7% compound annual growth rate.
然而，与McDonald's类似，虽然没有McDonald's那么严重，股息增长的速度正在放缓。在过去3年中，它增长了17%。这是5.37%的复合年增长率。最新的股息增长率为4.04%。
前一次为4.98%。然而，这是一次放缓，因为前一次为7.11%。
However, similar to McDonald's, although not as severe as McDonald's, the pace of dividend growth is slowing. In the last 3 years, it has grown by 17%. This is a compound annual growth rate of 5.37%.
The latest dividend growth rate is 4.04%. The previous one was 4.98 %. However, this is a slowdown because the previous one was 7.11 %.
该股目前的预期股息率为4.55%，是过去5年中最高的，即第100百分位。正如我提到的，这是42年历史中最高的。我们的图表只显示到2007年，但你可以看到它处于迄今的最高点。当时，其中位数为2.89%。
所以，这是上升趋势的一个重大例外。你很久没有机会以如此高的股息率买入PepsiCo股票了。
The stock is currently trading at 4. 55% forward-looking dividend yield, which is the highest in the last 5 years , i.e. the 100th percentile. And as I mentioned, this is the highest in 42 years of history.
Our chart only shows up to 2007, but you can see it's at its highest point yet. At that time, its median was 2.89%. So, this is a major exception to the upward trend. You haven't had the opportunity to buy PepsiCo stock at such a dividend yield in a long time.
然而，关于该公司存在一些担忧。增长正在放缓，我们将会讨论这一点，但股息似乎也不再可持续。2019年，其自由现金流派息率首次达到97%。2022年为110%，2024年为100%，2025年为99.6%。
这使许多人怀疑PepsiCo的股息是否可能面临风险。
However, there are some concerns about the company. Growth is slowing, which we will discuss, but dividends also no longer seem sustainable. For the first time in 2019, their free cash flow payout ratio was 97%.
It was 110% in 2022, 100% in 2024, and 99.6% in 2025. This has led many to wonder if PepsiCo's dividend could be at risk.
然而，我特意加入这一点，是为了让你看到过去12个月的自由现金流派息率，他们的自由现金流在过去一年有所改善。近几个季度出现了改善，他们目前有望实现84.6%的自由现金流派息率。而在预期基础上，计算股息增长，为87.1%。
所以，情况正在改善，就我个人而言，我不认为他们有任何削减股息的风险。
However, I specifically added this so that you can see the free cash flow payout ratio for the last 12 months , and their free cash flow has improved over the past year. Recent quarters have seen improvements and they are currently on track for an 84.6% free cash flow payout ratio.
And on a forward-looking basis, calculating dividend growth, it is 87.1%. So, the situation is improving and personally I don't think there is any risk of them cutting their dividend.
如果我们看他们的盈利派息率，这是基于GAAP每股收益计算的，去年为92.7%。这再次在人们心中敲响了警钟，但由于业绩改善，过去12个月现在为75.3%。现在，在预期基础上，计算股息增长，为77.6%。
If we look at their earnings payout ratio, which is based on GAAP earnings per share, it was 92.7% last year. It was once again raising alarm bells in people's minds , but due to improved performance it is now 75.3% over the last 12 months.
Now, on a forward-looking basis, calculating dividend growth, it is 77.6%.
我最近为准备这个视频添加了这个功能，因为我意识到随着新的季度数据出炉，这些年度派息率可能显得过时。拥有过去12个月的数据和前瞻性预测是很有用的。
I recently added this feature in preparation for this video because I realized that these annual payout ratios might seem outdated as new quarterly data comes in. It is useful to have data from the past 12 months and forward-looking projections.
PepsiCo是股市中一家可靠的财富积累型公司。过去12个月为8.36美元。这是他们的调整后每股收益，你可以看到它在几十年间持续增长。在过去10年中，调整后每股收益增长了77%。
这是6%的复合年增长率（CAGR）。然而，在过去3年中为11%。它正在放缓。这是3.98%的CAGR。
PepsiCo is a reliable wealth-building company in the stock market. $8.36 in the last 12 months. This is their adjusted earnings per share, and you can see it has grown consistently over the decades.
Over the past 10 years, adjusted earnings per share have increased by 77%. This is a 6% compound annual growth rate (CAGR). However, it is 11% in the last 3 years. It is slowing down. This is a CAGR of 3.98%.
而目前，分析师预计未来几年每股收益将实现低个位数增长。但事实是，PepsiCo的股价正在下跌。基于过去12个月的每股收益，其市盈率为17.06。这是过去5年中的最低水平。其中位数倍数为25.84，因为它是一家非常可靠的公司。
And right now , analysts expect low-single-digit growth in earnings per share in the coming years. But the truth is, PepsiCo's share price is falling. Based on trailing 12- month earnings per share , its P ratio is 17.06.
This is the lowest in the last 5 years. Its median multiple was 25.84, because it is a very reliable company.
如果我们看预期市盈率，目前为15.22。这是过去10年中的最低水平。你可以看到其中位数为22。这是自2007年以来的第七低百分位。只有在2008年至2011年期间才如此之低，那在历史上被认为是买入PepsiCo股票的最佳时机。
If we look at the forward-looking P ratio, it is currently 15.22. This is the lowest in the last 10 years. You can see that its median was 22. This is the seventh lowest percentile since 2007.
It was only this low from 2008 to 2011 , which was historically considered the best time to buy PepsiCo shares.
目前是 15.22。这是过去 10 年里的最低水平。你可以看到它的中位数是 22。这是自 2007 年以来第七低的百分位。只有在 2008 到 2011 年才这么低，而那在历史上被认为是买入 PepsiCo 股票的最佳时机。
currently 15.22. This is the lowest in the last 10 years. You can see that its median was 22. This is the seventh lowest percentile since 2007. It was only this low from 2008 to 2011, which was historically considered the best time to buy PepsiCo shares.
与McDonald's的例子类似，它正以相对于历史倍数的折价交易，尤其是在过去5年、10年以及整个期间。预期市盈率目前为15.22。自2007年以来，其中位数为20.89。如果该股开始以20.8的倍数交易，其潜在股价将为178。
这比当前水平高出37.3%。所以，你可以把这视为你投资PepsiCo股票的安全边际。
Similar to the McDonald's example, it is trading at a discount to historical multiples , especially over the past 5 years, 10 years, and the entire period. The forward- looking P/E ratio is currently 15.22.
Since 2007, its median has been 20.89. If the stock starts trading at a multiple of 20.8, its potential share price will be 178. It is 37.3% higher than here. So, you can think of this as your safety margin for investing in PepsiCo shares.
前瞻市盈率目前是 15.22。自 2007 年以来，它的中位数是 20.89。如果该股开始以 20.8 倍市盈率交易，其潜在股价将是 178。这比当前水平高 37.3%。所以，你可以把这看作投资 PepsiCo 股票的安全边际。
The forward-looking P/E ratio is currently 15.22. Since 2007, its median has been 20.89. If the stock starts trading at a multiple of 20.8, its potential share price will be 178.
It is 37.3% higher than here. So, you can think of this as your safety margin for investing in PepsiCo shares.
尤其是与其历史股息率相比，这是一个良好的入场点。如果它最终回到2.89%的股息率，那将比当前价格高出57.4%。
Especially compared to its historical dividend yield, this is a good entry point. If it eventually returns to a 2.89% yield, that's 57.4% more than the current price.
不过，PepsiCo 的增长预计会放缓。所以，如果你想要跑赢市场的回报，即使把股息再投资，你也需要一次估值上修。它在 20.5 倍市盈率的位置上处境更好。如果它以 25 倍市盈率交易，那就更好了。
However, PepsiCo's growth is expected to slow. So, if you want market-beating returns, even with dividends reinvested, you will need an upward re- rating. It is in a better position at a multiple of 20.5.
If it is traded in multiples of 25, that is even better.
所以，看 PepsiCo 的股票，我认为这是过去十年、当然是过去五年里最好的买入时机，但问题仍然是，它适合谁？
So, looking at PepsiCo shares, I think it's the best time to buy in the last decade, certainly in the last 5 years, but the question remains, who is it suitable for?
和 McDonald's 一样，我认为它很适合那些临近退休、想要可靠收入和股息增长、并且希望获得高于 S&P 500 的收益率，但对总回报能否跑赢整体市场持怀疑态度的股息投资者。
Like McDonald's, I think it's a good fit for dividend investors nearing retirement who want reliable income and dividend growth, and who want to get a yield higher than the S&P 500, but are skeptical about whether the total return will outperform the overall market.
这个频道对 $PEP 的历次判断
Dividend Data 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。