辉瑞（PFE）目前并非好的买入选择；由于派息超过自由现金流，股息可持续性存疑，且尽管有内部人士买入，DCF分析仍显示显著下行空间。

A high-yield dividend stock just saw insiders start buying for the first time in over a year and a half, and I'm not going to make you wait to reveal the stock. It's Pfizer.

And Pfizer is a stock that's really struggled over the last few years. I've been covering it for a while now, but it's yielding around 6.4% at its current prices. However, I've pointed out some major concerns I have with the company at least over the last few years, and you can see the share price has been decimated. If we look in the last 5 years, the stock is down by 41 nearly 42% in the last 6 months alone, down by 2.61%.

And while it's seen a slight recovery this year so far, it's up by about 7.25%, it's still underperforming the market. However, what's interesting is in the last month now, the stock is up by 10.31%.

And if we scroll down here on Forecaster, we can see two directors made purchases just a few days ago. And these were the first insider purchases since February of 2025, so over a year and a half ago.

So, what's going on with Pfizer stock? Is now becoming an interesting time to enter this stock? With the company's high starting dividend yield and still trading at some of its lowest prices in the last 10 years.

For example, you can see here how when the sales for Pfizer grew, the share price grew. And when it declined, the share price declined. Now, Pfizer is a very interesting case study for a stock because again, take a look at this 10-year chart. It's not pretty.

We can see when the COVID boom happened, sales exploded, and they hit about 100 billion in revenue in 2022, and then we saw a major decline.

Take a look at revenue. Revenue essentially doubled from 2019 to 2022 when they were hitting peak COVID revenue. But then we saw a major decline in 2023, and since 2023 to really 2025 and the trailing 12 months, revenues have stagnated. They haven't gone anywhere.

So, what type of guidance is Pfizer giving us for 2026? Well, if we look at their recent earnings report, one of the things that you'll notice is they did raise their full year 2026 revenue guidance by about 500 million at the midpoint, but they're still estimating a range of 60.5 billion to 62.5 billion. So, again, to put that into perspective, that's essentially no growth from where they were in 2025. So, we're now looking at about four consecutive years where revenue growth has remained stagnant. That is a bit of a red flag.

Now, of course, they can still grow earnings and free cash flow if their margins are expanding. So, what does earnings per share and net income growth look like for this stock? Well, really, if we look at earnings per share growth, it's not a pretty chart. Again, 2022 was another record year, but then we saw it fall off a cliff.

Why was that the case? Well, you have to understand there's a few different things going on here that start to paint the picture. Keep in mind, we're looking at GAAP, generally accepted accounting principles earnings, which may not be the perfect representation for Pfizer in this situation, and here's why.

Now, to start, we understand the 2021-2022 boom was because of COVID. Revenues were surging, margins were increasing. And once that ended, we saw a major decline, but there's more going on here than just a decline in COVID revenues.

Pfizer had also purchased huge amounts of inventory and manufacturing capacity, particularly with drugs like Paxlovid. And so, when that demand collapsed, it had recognized large charges associated with their Paxlovid inventory, as well as some other drug inventories.

Then, on top of this, Pfizer also acquired Seagen. That's fairly common for these pharmaceutical stocks to pursue acquisitions. But, because they did pursue this acquisition, there was also some additional costs, such as interest expense on the acquisition debt, as well as a few other expenses as a result of the acquisition, which naturally lowers generally accepted accounting principles earnings per share.

But, even with that being said, the story for Pfizer has not been pretty over the last few years. So, naturally, the only question we need to ask is is earnings growth going to start to ramp up in the future. Because, of course, the share price is going to follow net income. It's going to follow earnings, and that's exactly what it's done over the last 5 and 10 years.

So, more than anything, we need to understand what type of business this is, and what their capital allocation looks like. And that'll also give us a picture as to whether or not this high starting dividend yield is actually sustainable.

Now, what's interesting is if we scroll down, you will see that one of their priorities is now to simply maintain the dividend. Pay attention to the change in verbage. Historically speaking for Pfizer, the goal has been to grow the dividend over time. But, now they're focused on strictly maintaining it.

Year-to-date Q2 for 2026, they returned about 4.9 billion to shareholders, and that comes strictly from paying out dividends. So, let's put that into a little perspective. Jump back over to the fundamental tab, and let's go ahead and pull up the cash flow statement, and just take a look at free cash flow. Now, we can see free cash flow in 2025 was sitting at about 9 billion, very close to just right at 9 billion.

So, what does that tell us? Well, it tells us if the company through the first two quarters of 2026 spent about 4.9 billion on paying out in dividends, and obviously they continue to do that for the next two quarters, that result in about 9.8 billion in dividends paid out. 9.8 billion in dividends is higher than the 9 billion that they generated in free cash flow in 2025. What does that mean? Well, it means paying out that much in dividends is not sustainable unless free cash flow starts to grow again.

Now, to be fair, we can't see over the trailing 12 months, free cash flow has climbed a little bit higher, closer to around 11 billion, but this company is still spending a significant amount of their capital strictly just to maintain the dividend.

Now, this becomes even more concerning when you actually understand the business model behind Pfizer. What's their business model? Well, more than anything, this is a pharmaceutical stock. So, really ultimately their top-line growth comes from the drugs that are in their pipeline as well as any potential drugs that might be losing their patent.

So, if you want to have a deeper understanding of Pfizer, really what you have to do is you have to start diving into their pipeline, and this is something that's available on their website. You can look at a downloadable PDF and really start to go through this.

But, here's what you need to know. Here's what the highlights are after I went through this. I created a simple spreadsheet showing the major losses of their drugs as well as what they're potentially gaining over the next few years.

Keep in mind, Pfizer was guiding to around 62 billion of revenue in 2026.

Here are the drugs that they're set to lose over the next few years. We can see by 2028, they're going to lose their key blood thinner drug which was generating around 8 billion in revenue in 2025. So, this is a huge loss.

We then have their breast cancer drug which they'll be losing by 2027, losing around 4 billion as of 2025 revenue. So already we're sitting at about 12 billion loss just over the next couple of years.

These are the two huge losses and obviously there's some other key losses over the next couple of years that will move the needle in the billions range as well. This is what the major concern is for most investors.

However, the complete opposite is the case for Pfizer. Because their future growth is entirely dependent on what their pipeline looks like, future cash flows aren't very predictable. And that's concerning for investors. Investors who want reliable dividend payments want very predictable cash flows.

So we can see some of the major additions that they should be getting over the next few years. We can see most of these are in phase three, which means it's fairly close to actually hitting the market. They have a key obesity drug, a GLP-1 drug, which obviously there's a lot of demand for right now. Of course there's always going to be a demand for oncology. And if these two drugs alone are successful, that could potentially replace entirely the two losses they're set to see over the next couple of years.

So Pfizer's hopeful that they will be able to replace these cash flows that they're going to be losing in the next couple of years. However, there's still a lot to be concerned about. We can see second quarter 2026 revenues of 15 billion with just 1% year-over-year operational growth. They reported loss per share that reflected 4.3 billion in non-cash intangible asset impairments. And like I earlier, they're still guiding to pretty much the same revenue range they've seen over the last 4 years.

But again, my biggest concern is capital allocation and the lack of predictability in future cash flows. Take note that the company is not buying back any shares, ironically, despite the fact that they're trading at one of their lowest prices in the last decade.

This is the irony of share buybacks. They're most effective when you buy the stock at lower prices, but often times, if a company's using all their free cash flow to pay out dividends, then they can't buy back shares, which remember, buying back shares can actually increase your dividend payouts on a per share basis.

The company also wants to deleverage their balance sheet, which is difficult to do when again, the company's using all their cash flow to pay out dividends. And because this is a pharmaceutical stock, they're always trying to add new drugs to the pipeline, they have to heavily reinvest back into the business to drive growth or attempt mergers and acquisitions, which again, is difficult to do when a company's using all of its cash flow to pay out dividends.

So ultimately, the stock has put itself in a very difficult situation. It's in a bit of a capital allocation bind. But here's the bull case. Again, we just saw two directors make insider purchases and fairly large insider purchases for the first time in a year and a half. Typically, when it comes to these pharmaceutical stocks, that only happens if they feel relatively confident in the future pipeline.

And we have seen there is a potential to completely replace the drugs that they're going to be losing their patent to over the next couple of years. But the reality is to the average retail investor, it's still incredibly difficult to project out what future cash flows will actually look like for this stock because it's a pharmaceutical stock. It's as simple as that. There's very little predictability with future cash flows, which ultimately, future cash flows is what you do to value a stock to decide what price you should pay.

So if we start talking about valuation multiples, jump over here to forecaster and you can see they're pegging the fair value to about $29.92 per share. But if you remove the DCF model, and again, I think that's fair since future cash flows aren't predictable, the average fair value jumps down to about $22.31.

Let's talk about valuation ratios here for just a moment. If we look at the price to earnings multiple for Pfizer charted out, you can see it jumps a little all over the place. But if we look at their forward valuation, it paints a little bit of a cleaner picture. Their forward PE multiple right now is sitting just at 8.5. Just an 8.5 PE multiple. So it's certainly being valued like a stock that's not going to grow cash flows in the future, which again is kind of the guidance that management seems to be giving us.

So ultimately, my question from a valuation perspective, since Pfizer's straight-up telling us that their goal is simply to maintain the dividend at its current level, is what does valuation look like through the lens of a dividend discount model?

Well, what we can see is if we assume that Pfizer never grows its dividend again, assume 0% dividend growth, then the stock is worth about $20.24 per share, still implying 25% downside at its current prices.

Even if it grows its dividend at about 2% moving forward, it's still trading at about fair value, but keep in mind, yes, that's close to the historical dividend growth rate, but Pfizer's telling us their goal right now is to simply maintain the dividend. So from a dividend discount model perspective, there's even more downside from current prices.

So ultimately, everything does depend on the pipeline, and that's very hard to project, and for that reason alone, yes, Pfizer looks interesting with the recent insider buys, with the PE multiple and the high yield, but I don't think this is a great addition at this time.