PLAB债务过高(1.72亿美元)相对于营收(1.2亿美元),现金流为负,且SG&A费用高;需要3-5年的成本削减来偿还债务,之后才能增长。
逐段跳播
Playboy 看起来很有意思。市值非常低,而且方向正确。营收同比增长 11%,上个季度净利润为正。这是一个被遗忘的标志性品牌。好吧,我必须这么做。让我看看。我内心那个 13 岁的孩子想看看这到底是怎么回事。
好吧,让我们把它调出来。让我们看看一些现金流。让我看看 Playboy 的股票。我们有什么?哎哟。从每股 40 美元的峰值跌到每股 1.22 美元。哦,天哪。EBITDA、企业价值、市值 1.36 亿美元。
嗯,首先,我的意思是,如果你每股不到 1 美元,你可能会被退市。所以,如果你买入这家公司,存在严重的可能性,如果它被退市,你将更难从这家公司拿回你的钱,如果你想要的话。嗯,所以他们需要进行大规模的合股来提高股价。
合股在市场上从来都不被看好。所以,首先,财务数据,让我们看看这里有多少历史。营收没有增长,我的意思是去年增长了 4%。好吧。利润率不错,毛利率 70%,基于 1.2 亿,但他们保住了其中任何一部分吗?
所以他们实现了 8500 万美元的毛利润,销售和一般管理费用 9100 万。运营这家公司花了他们 9100 万,而它只赚 1200 万。你们看到了吗?所以他们实现了 1.2 亿的营收,员工成本 9100 万。
这意味着人均营收大约是 1.255 美元。嗯,EBITDA 为负 2。让我们看看。发行股票。这就是他们弥补自由现金流缺口的方式。我打赌他们先看资产负债表,但之后他们可能会现金流不足。
嗯,手头只有 4000 万现金。存货、应收账款。
Playboy seems interesting. Very low market cap going in the right direction. Growing revenue 11% year-over- positive net income last quarter. Forgotten iconic brand. Okay, I had to do it. Let's uh let's see. The 13-year-old in me wants to see what this has to do. All right, let's pull it up. Let's take a look at some cash flow. Wasn't Let's see. Playboy stock. What do we got? Ouch. $40 a share peak down to a$122 a share. Oh my god. Ebida enterprise uh market cap $136 million. Well, first of all, I mean, if you're less than a dollar a share, you could be delisted. So, if you're buying this company, uh there's there's a serious potential that you could not if it's delisted, it's going to be much more hard, much harder to get your money out of that company should you want it. Um, so they need to do a massive reverse split to get their stock price up. Reverse splits are never looked favorably upon in the market. So, uh, first things first, financials, let's just see how much history we have here. revenue not going I mean up 4% last year. Okay. Margins decent margin 70% gross profit margin on the 120 million but did they keep any of that? So they made $85 million gross profit selling and general administration 91. It cost them $91 million to run a business that makes 12 million. You guys see this? So they gener I'll make this a bit I can't make it bigger, but I can shrink this so it's easier for you to see. So they made 120 million of revenue with a staff of 91 million. That means like revenue per employee is like a dollar 255. Um, Ibida negative2. Let's see. Issuing shares. That's how they're covering the free cash miss. I bet they're new balance sheet first, but then they're probably so missing cash flow. Uh, only 40 million in cash on hand. Inventory A R.
从每股 40 美元的峰值跌到每股 1.22 美元。
$40 a share peak down to a$122 a share.
房产。那是那座豪宅吗?在评论区告诉我。这个 2200 万美元的资产是洛杉矶的 Playboy 豪宅吗?有个想法。那座 Playboy 豪宅的房地产价值是多少?股票的市值是多少?
你能买入股票,关闭业务,出售房地产并赚钱吗?可能不会,但这只是一个有趣的思维练习。
Property. Is that the mansion? Let me know in the comments. Is this $22 million asset the Playboy Mansion in LA? Here's a thought. How much is the real estate value of that Playboy Mansion? And what's the market cap of the stock? Could you buy the stock, shut down the business, sell the real estate and make money? Probably not, but just fun mental exercise.
嗯,应付账款没有增长。很好。我会担心应付账款在增长。长期债务、流动资本租赁、6300 万流动负债。哦,长期债务。哦,天哪。银行会拿走这个家伙。长期债务大于营收。1.72 亿的债务。
那只是银行债务。更不用说 1500 万的资本租赁或 2300 万的其他债务,总计 2.5 亿的债务。
Um, payables not growing. Good. I'd be concerned that payables are growing. Long-term debt, current port capital lease, 63 million of current liability. Ooh, long-term debt. Oh, man. The bank's going to take this sucker. Long-term debt is is greater than revenue. 172 million of debt. That's just bank debt. Not not to mention the 15 million in capital leases or 23 million of others for a total of a quarter of a billion of debt.
这里有个问题。他们的大部分资产是无形资产。看到这个了吗?那可能来自最初的收购,当他们从 Hefner 那里买下它时。我假设,如果我记得故事没错的话,我认为一些私人买家买下了它,然后他们想让它上市。
但 Playboy 这个品牌,价值可能就在这个无形资产里,你知道,谁知道那实际上值多少钱。
Here's a problem. Most of their assets are intangible. See this? That's probably from the original acquisition when they bought it from Hefner. I'm assuming they, if I remember the story correctly, I think some some private people bought it and then they wanted to take it public. But the brand Playboy, the value is probably sitting in this intangible asset, which you know, who knows what that's actually worth.
就硬资产而言,看起来你有一处房产。我假设那是房产。这里没有太多,但你有很多很多债务。让我们看看现金流量表。所以股票薪酬没什么,很好,看到经营现金流为零。让我们获取更多历史数据。
它曾经是正的,然后急剧转为负,现在达到盈亏平衡。所以评论者,你是对的。你确实是对的。他们有点像在扭转局面。
In terms of hard assets, it looks like you got a property. I'm assuming that's the property. There's not much here, but you have a lot a lot of debt. Let's see cash flow statement. So stockbased comp nothing great good to see cash operations is zero. [sighs] Let's get some more history here. It was positive then it went negative hard and it's got a break even. So you're right commenter. You're right there. They are kind of like turning the ship around a little bit.
好吧。资本支出没有。而且他们没有现金去做任何事。很难,很难喜欢。天哪,他们的债务太多了。嗯,而且我没有看到,以那样的营收,他们需要运营得更干净,看看他们能否,你知道,凑足足够的现金来偿还债务。
当你的营收是 1.2 亿时,你怎么偿还 7 亿的债务?对吧?那是负债吗?长期负债、资产、长期 100,抱歉我说错了,是 172 不是 700,1.72 亿的债务。
Okay. Capex nothing. and they've got no cash to do anything with that. It's tough to tough to like, man. They have way too much debt. Um, and I'm I'm not seeing with with that kind of revenue. They need to run a much cleaner operation to see if they can, you know, jin up enough cash to pay off the debt. How do you pay 700 million of debt when your revenue is 120 million? Right? Is that the liability? Long-term liability assets longterm 100 I'm sorry I misspoke 172 not 700 172 million in debt.
嗯,他们必须非常努力地削减成本。所以,他们在销售成本中放了 3500 万,用于一个在线制作内容的业务,然后他们真的支付他们的高管团队 9100 万。你必须削减所有这些。我认为你应该针对销售、一般和行政费用,并且你必须在总部裁掉很多人。
专注于超级精简和灵活,看看你能不能把 1.2 亿营收中的更多部分保留到利润中。然后用它来偿还债务,也许 3 到 5 年后,你就能勉强维持一个无债务的业务,然后你可以开始增长它。嗯,但他们还有很长的路要走。
Um, they've gota they've got to really work hard to uh to trim down costs. So, they got $35 million sitting in the cogs for a for a business that makes content online and then they're really paying their their executive staff 91 million. You got to cut all that stuff out. I think you go after SGNA here and you got to lay a ton of people off at HQ. Focus on being super lean and scrappy and see if you can't try to keep a lot more of the 120 million of revenue to the bottom line. Then use that to pay down your debt and maybe 3 to 5 years from now you kind of eke out a business that is debtree then you can start growing it. Uh but they've got they've got a lot of a lot of way to go here.
这个频道对 $PLAB 的历次判断
Rational Investing - Cameron Stewart, CFA 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。