由于营收增速为 MSFT 的 3 倍且利润率更优，PLTR 是相较 MSFT 更受青睐的加仓选择。
逐段跳播
Palanteer 产生的收入只是 Microsoft 整体收入的一小部分，但已经实现了利润率，取决于你看的是哪个指标，甚至比 Microsoft 更好。
Palanteer is generating a tiny fraction of the overall revenues that Microsoft is generating, but is already earning a profit margin, depending on the metric you look at, better than Microsoft.
这是否意味着，按当前市场价格，Palunteer 股票比 Microsoft 股票是更好的买入机会？Microsoft 在过去 12 个月期间产生了 3320 亿美元的收入。Palanteer 只是其中极小极小的一部分，为 61.56 亿美元。
Does that make Palunteer stock a better buying opportunity than Microsoft stock at current market prices? Microsoft generated $332 billion in revenue over the trailing 12-month period.
Palunteer a tiny tiny fraction of that at 6.156 billion.
这会让 Palanteer 看起来很差。它让 Palanteer 看起来像是没有产生任何增长，但这是因为规模上的差异。
Now, this makes Palunteer look bad. It makes Palunteer look like they're not generating any growth, but it's because of the scale differences.
如果我们聚焦于最近的 12 个月期间，Palanteer 产生的收入增长是 Microsoft 收入增长速度的三倍以上。
If we were to zoom in to the most recent 12-month period, Palunteer generated revenue growth that was over three times the rate of revenue growth of Microsoft.
Palanteer 的业务增长速度远快于 Microsoft 的业务增长速度，而且 Palanteer 的增长速度还在改善。
Palunteer is growing its business much more quickly than Microsoft is growing its business and the rate of increase is improving for Palunteer.
因此，Palanteer 与 Microsoft 增长率之间的这一差距正朝着有利于 Palanteer 的方向发展。
So that difference between the growth rates of Palunteer and Microsoft is working in Palunteer's favor.
尽管规模无疑存在显著差异，Palanteer 的 60 亿大约相当于 Microsoft 3310 亿收入的 2%。
Although the scale is unarguably significantly different, Palanteer's six billion is about 2% that of Microsoft 331 billion in revenue.
话虽如此，Palanteer 的利润率在某些情况下甚至更好，或者即便在规模小得多的情况下也接近 Microsoft。
That being said, Palanteer's profit margins in some cases are even better or approaching that of Microsoft even at its much smaller scale.
看看 Palanteer 营业利润率的改善速度，它已从 2021 年的 -40% 一路攀升至最近 12 个月期间的 43%。
And look at that rate of improvement there for Palanteer's operating profit margin, which has soared from -40% in 2021 all the way up to 43% in the most recent trailing 12-month period.
Palanteer 尽管在最近 12 个月达到 43%，但如果我们看 5 年期间的平均值，那会显著更低。因此，Palanteer 尚未维持住 Microsoft 那样的营业盈利水平。
它尚未证明自己能在 5 年或 10 年的跨度上做到这一点，而这是投资者需要考虑的重要一点。
Now, Palanteer, even though it's at 43% in the most recent trailing 12 months, if we look at the average over the 5-year period, it would be significantly lower. So, Palanteer hasn't sustained the level of operating profitability that Microsoft has.
It hasn't yet proven that it can do this over a 5year stretch or a 10-year stretch, which is important for investors to consider.
我提到过，在某些指标上 Palanteer 已经超过 Microsoft，其中之一就是投入资本回报率，Palanteer 在过去 5 年持续改善这一指标，而 Microsoft 则一直呈下降趋势。
So I mentioned in some metrics Palunteer is already exceeding Microsoft and one of those metrics is the return on invested capital where Palunteer has continued improving on this metric over the previous 5 years whereas Microsoft has been trending downward.
而 Palanteer 的 ROIC 已从负 30% 一路改善至 38%。对于 Microsoft 和 Palanteer 来说，它们都轻松高于这些门槛。对 Palanteer 来说，接近 3:1。
While Palanteer's ROIC has improved from negative 30% all the way up to 38%. And for Microsoft and Palanteer, they are comfortably above those thresholds. For Palanteer, it's nearly 3:1.
因此，无论我们是单独看，还是与 WACC 相比，按这一指标，Palanteer 的盈利能力都优于 Microsoft。
So regardless if we look at it individually or compared to the WACC, Palunteer's profitability according to this metric is better than that of Microsoft.
现在让我们看看估值，不出所料，Palanteer 的交易估值比 Microsoft 更贵。
So now let's look at valuation and unsurprisingly Palunteer is trading at a more expensive valuation than Microsoft.
我提到过，Palanteer 的收入增长速度大约是 Microsoft 的三倍。它的利润率已经超过 Microsoft。相比 Microsoft，它有更大的上行空间。因此，通常你会预期这样一家企业以溢价交易。
I mentioned Palunteer is growing its revenue at roughly three times the rate of Microsoft. Its profit margins are already exceeding Microsoft. it has bigger upside compared to Microsoft.
And so typically you would expect to see a business trading at a premium.
我不知道它是否配得上相对 Microsoft 这么高的溢价。它的远期市盈率为 73，而 Microsoft 的远期市盈率为 21。因此，按远期市盈率衡量，它的交易估值是 Microsoft 的 3 倍以上。
I don't know if it deserves this much of a premium over Microsoft. It's trading at a forward PE of 73 whereas Microsoft is trading at a forward PE of 21. So it's trading at more than 3x the value of Microsoft when measuring on a forward price to earnings basis.
当我用我的贴现现金流估值模型来看 Palanteer 时，我计算出该股的合理价值为 195 美元。当前市场价格为 170 美元。因此，我计算出 Palanteer 股票在未来 12 到 18 个月还有 15% 的上行空间。
When I look at Palunteer using my discounted cash flow valuation model, I calculated a fair value of $195 for the stock. The current market price is $170. So I calculate another 15% upside for Palunteer stock over the next 12 to 18 months.
顺便说一下，作为这一计算的一部分，我在这里计算加权平均资本成本，Palunteer 的加权平均资本成本为 13%，而正如我跟你们分享过的，它的 ROIC 为 38%。所以两者的比例接近 3:1。
By the way, as part of this calculation is where I calculate the weighted average cost of capital, which for Palunteer came to 13% and as I shared with you, it's ROIC is 38%. So it has a nearly 3:1 ratio.
同样地，对于 Palunteer，我想说，从远期市盈率来看，Palunteer 的股价看起来估值合理，而从现金流折现估值来看则略微低估。
And similarly with Palunteer, I would say Palunteer stock looks fairly valued when looking at the forward PE multiple and slightly undervalued when looking at the discounted cash flow valuation.
Palanteer 在名人堂方面还没有达到那个水平，因为它的卓越表现持续的时间还不够长，不足以赢得名人堂的评级，但它正朝着那个方向前进。营收增长非常出色。利润率非常出色。如果它能在未来 5 年继续保持这样的表现，如果我把这家企业上调为名人堂评级，我不会感到意外，但现在还没有达到。
Palanteer not yet there in terms of Hall of Fame because it hasn't performed excellently for a long enough duration to earn that Hall of Fame ranking, but it's headed there. Revenue growth is excellent.
Profit margins are excellent. If it achieves this kind of performance for another 5 years, I wouldn't be surprised if I upgraded to the business as a Hall of Fame ranking, but not there yet.
不过，如果我必须在这两者之间做出选择，而且只能选一个，我会选 Palunteer。我实际上同时持有 Palunteer 和 Microsoft。所以与其只选其中一个，我两个都选了。我的投资组合里两个都持有。
Still, if I had to make a choice between these two and I could only pick one, I would pick Palunteer. I actually own Palunteer and Microsoft. So rather than picking only one of them, I picked both of them. I own both of them in my portfolio.
但如果我今天必须加仓，而且必须在这两个持仓中选择加哪一个，我会先加仓 Palunteer，然后才会加仓 Microsoft。
But if I had to add to my positions today and I had to pick between which one of the positions I would add to, I would add to my position in Palunteer before I would add to my position in Microsoft.
这个频道对 $PLTR 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。