鉴于其强劲的财务表现(高自由现金流、营收快速增长),PLTR 被低估;说话者因此加仓,并预测股价将达到约 250 美元。
逐段跳播
Karp 刚刚直白地告诉我们,应该把 OpenAI 和 Anthropic 国有化,因为它们牵涉的责任太大了。而要想避免 OpenAI 和 Anthropic 那种责任敞口,唯一的办法要么是把它们国有化,要么就是使用 Palunteer——那基本上就是一段长达 26 分钟、讲你为什么该用 Palunteer 的营销视频。
Literally Karp just told us we should nationalize OpenAI and Anthropic because there's too much liability associated with them. And the only way you can't have the liability exposure that OpenAI anthropic has is if you nationalize them or you use Palunteer which was basically a 26-inute long marketing video on why you should use Palunteer.
首先,了解一下 Palanteer 是如何运作的、以及它如何把自己宣传得与众不同,会有些帮助。所以我在白板上画了这个。我觉得这是对它们所做之事一个非常简化的例子。但基本上,你有一个早期的 Palanteer,它研究的是语言和启发式方法。
然后到了下一个层次,你就有了某种本体论。我们要把数据和算法以及确定性解决方案结合起来。而现在我们又纳入了大语言模型。这三样东西都是不同的:理解语言、我们的权重和模型、以及我们如何与大语言模型交互。
这些东西合在一起都是不同的。Palanteer 把这称为主权 AI。
First it's helpful to understand a little bit of how Palanteer functions and how they pitch themselves as different. So I drew this on the whiteboard. I think this is a very oversimplified example of what it is that they do.
But basically what you have uh is you have early palunteer which is studying language and huristics. Then the next level you get sort of this ontology. We're going to put data together with algorithms and deterministic solutions.
And now we're incorporating LLMs. And these three things are all different. understanding language, our weights and models, and how we interact with LLMs. Those things are all different together. Palanteer calls that sovereign AI.
现在,我觉得眼下发生的有点像是营销手段。我想说清楚,好吗?我们稍后会讨论 Palanteer 的估值,但我认为这其中有一部分多少和营销有关。
Now, I think it's a little bit of a marketing play what's going on. I want to be clear, okay? We'll talk about Palanteer's valuation in a moment, but I think some of this is a little bit marketing related.
按倒序来说,我确实认为 Palanteer 现在没那么贵。我会深入讲这一点,但我只想先把这话说在前头。而且我喜欢 Palanteer 这只股票。我会买入更多 Palanteer 股票。我已经有一点 Palanteer 股票了。
A in reverse order, I do actually think Palanteer isn't that expensive right now. I'm going to get into the weeds on that, but I just want to hit that up front. Uh, and I like Palanteer stock.
I buy more Palanteer stock. I got a little bit of Palanteer stock.
我认为那是 Karp 为了推销 Palunteer 产品而进行的、恰合其便的恐吓。因为 Palanteer 所做的,就是利用他们在军方方面的经验来说:“我们太厉害了。我们不会泄露军事机密。
你应该把公司数据托付给我们,而不是 Clawed 或其他什么。”平心而论,用 Palanteer 系统在本地部署或其他方式,确实有更干净的数据保管办法。所以你可以保住自己的数据,但你仍然要付 Palanteer 的费用。
Palanteer 有很多前置部署工程师来为你搭建这套东西。这很聪明。他们拥有的这套系统很聪明,但你必须在这种恐吓、末日论调和他同时也在推销产品之间做点平衡。
I think that is convenient fearmongering by Karp to sell Palunteer products because what Palanteer does is they use their experience with the military to say, "Well, we're so good.
We don't give up military secrets. you should trust us with your company data instead of clawed or whatever else. And in fairness, there are cleaner ways you could keep data using Palunteer systems on prem or whatever.
So you could preserve your data, but you're still paying Palanteer their fee. Palanteer's got a lot of forward deployed engineers to set that up for you. It's smart. Like the system they have is smart, but you have to kind of balance this fear-mongering doom and gloom with he's also trying to sell the product.
但让我们看看他还说了些别的什么,然后我们再来看 Palunteer 的估值。所以他主张,这些公司正在通过打折提供 token 访问来窃取你的知识产权,而你需要有一个好的应用层——也就是这块白板——来保护你的数据。
真是好一套营销策略。他们基本上,这个论点是:所有知识产权都该归我们。所有这些客户都会亏钱,然后他们会起诉。我举了无头 CRM 作为例子。他没有提到那一部分。那会直接摧毁市值,并摧毁责任,或者说制造大量责任。
But let's look at some of the things else that he said and then we'll look at the valuation for Palunteer. So he argues that these companies are discounting token access to steal your intellectual property that you need to have a good application layer which is this whiteboard right to protect your data.
Such a marketing strategy. Uh they basically the thesis is we deserve all of the intellectual property. All these clients are going to lose money and then they're going to sue.
I wrote the headless CRM as an example. He didn't mention that part. That's gonna just destroy market cap and destroy liabil or create a lot of liability.
他主张,当年造原子弹的时候,那些人并不在领工资,他们基本上也不与你在 Enthropic 上市时可能获得的利润激励相一致。我不认为这件事在 anthropic IPO 前一个月出现是巧合。
这种“咱们改买 Palunteer 吧”的论调。
He argues that when the nuclear bomb was built, people weren't on payroll and they weren't basically aligned with, you know, the profit incentives that you might get from an IPO at Enthropic.
I don't think it's a coincidence that this is coming, you know, a month before the anthropic IPO. This this sort of let's buy Palunteer instead.
所以,我们大致明白这里的意思了。平心而论,这家公司的财务状况非常出色。我的意思是,这里简单概览一下。我们有 10,我们在支付了大约 5 亿美元的账单之后,还有约 94 亿美元的自由现金。
他们的资产负债表很棒。除此之外,他们的营收增长了约 92%,成本上升了 53%。你拥有巨大的定价权。
Uh, and so we kind of get the idea here. In fairness, the company's got fantastic financials. I mean, just a quick overview here. We have 10 we have about $9.4 billion of free cash after they pay their bills of like $500 million.
They've got a great balance sheet. On top of that, uh, their revenue is up like 92%, their costs are up 53%. You've got massive pricing power.
所以,尽管他给人的印象有点像是个傲慢的混蛋、末日恐吓者,但他有点资格傲慢,因为这家公司确实赚很多钱。他们对客户非常挑剔。有很多人做梦都想用上 Palanteer 的软件,但想用 Palanteer 的人排着长队,却拿不到手。
So even though he comes across as kind of like an arrogant a-hole doom fearmonger, he kind of earned being arrogant because the company does make a lot of money. They're very selective with their customers.
There are a lot of people who would dream of being able to use the Palanteer software, but they have a line out the door of people who want to use Palanteer and they can't get their hands on it.
结果,他们的增长率实际上比我们上次做这个分析时还上升了。平均来看,似乎是被重新调整过了。在华尔街预期下,实际上相当稳定,约为 47%。这让他们现在的 PEG 比率约为 23。也就是市盈率相对增长比率,因为平心而论,他们的市盈率大概是——我们这里算出来是多少?
股价是 177 除以 162,他们的市盈率约为 109。如果你用这个除以未来四年平均 47% 的年增长,你得到大约 23 的 PEG。而我的预测是,他们未来四年大概会以 50% 增长。
在 100 或 1.62 美元这个价位,我个人认为他们可以支撑接近 3 的 PEG。这大概是一只 250 美元的股票。
As a result, their growth rate has actually gone up from the last time we did this analysis. Uh on average, uh it looks like it kind of got rejiggered. is actually pretty stable at about 47% on Wall Street expectations.
That puts them at about a 23 PEG ratio right now. So price to earnings growth ratio cuz their their PE ratio in fairness is like uh what do we got here? The stock's at 177 divided by 162, their PE ratio is about 109.
And if you divide that by 47% annual growth over the next four years on average, you get about a 23 peg. And my forecast is that they'll probably grow at 50% for the next four years.
At 100 or a buck 62, I personally think they could justify closer to a three peg. It's probably a $250 stock.
所以,并不是说,你知道,按当前数字我们能支撑 5 倍,但我不认为这是一只已被充分定价的股票。所以,我不认为他基于 Palanteer 的增长而称其被低估是错的。你不能仅凭市盈率就说它被低估。
但定价权很棒。资产负债表很棒。动能还可以。从我们在 118 买入以来,它有过一小波上涨。
So, it's not like, you know, we could justify a 5x here with the current numbers, but I don't think it's a fully priced stock. So, I don't think he's wrong to be calling Palanteer undervalued based on the growth they have.
You can't say it's undervalued just based on PE. But the pricing power is great. The balance sheet is great. The momentum's okay. They had a little runup from when we bought it at 118.
我们为此向课程会员、也就是 alpha 会员里的所有人发了一个提醒。如果你还不是那个会员,当然,记住,到 meetreinvest.com 加入我们。你会获得 alpha 会员资格。
你还会获得,呃,我不知道,大概一千美元或六百美元额外价值的 reinvest 终端,等它在 11 月推出的时候。所以,你会因此得到一个免费赠品。而且我们要提高 meet reinvest alpha 会员的价格。
所以,到那边加入我们吧,meet mereinvest.com。但是,你知道,我们在 118 发出了那个买入提醒,显然在那之上已经涨了。不过我不介意在这个价位再买更多。
We set an alert to everybody in the course member uh alpha membership for that. If you're not a member of that yet, of course, remember, join us at meetreinvest.com. You get the alpha membership.
You also get uh like I don't know, probably a thousand bucks or 600 bucks in extra value of the reinvest terminal when that comes out in uh November. So, you're getting a free bonus on that.
And we're going to be raising the price uh on the meet reinvest alpha membership. So, join us over there, meet mereinvest.com. But uh I you know, we sent that buying alert at 118 obviously up on that.
I I don't mind buying more though at this price.
不是因为这种末日论,因为毕竟,如果你真的认为他说的是对的、而且这会击垮整个市场,那你为什么还要买任何股票?所以这就是为什么我认为这被夸大了,是给 Palanteer 做的营销炒作。
Not because of this doomerism, because after all, if you actually think what he's saying is right and it's going to crash the whole market, why would you buy any stock? So that's why I think this is overblown and marketing hype for Palanteer.
他说:“哦,Daario 是个有道德的人。”这有点像喜剧演员的做法。你知道,喜剧演员会这么干。他们会说:“哦,犹太人,他们是世界上最棒的。我有最棒的朋友。犹太人都爱我。”然后他们就来一个关于拿犹太人开玩笑的包袱,对吧?
这基本上就是喜剧演员的做法。他在这里做的就是这种事。就像,哦,Dario 很棒。Dario 很棒,但他会被国有化,而他对这一点视而不见。他甚至没意识到自己就是那个被算计的对象。
He says, "Oh, Daario's an ethical person." This is kind of like what comedians do. You know, comedians will do this. They're like, "Oh, the Jews, they're the greatest in the world.
I've got the greatest friends. The Jews love me." And then they go for some punchline about, you know, making fun of juice, right? Like that's basically what comedians do. That's what he's doing here.
It's like, oh, Dario's great. Dario's great, but he's going to get nationalized and he's blind to it. He doesn't even realize he's the mark
>> 那一点很重要。Daario 会进入这样一种说法:“嘿,我们在安全方面尽了最大努力,这个那个的。”但真正有意思的是,Daario 有点在回击他从 Palunteer 这类人那里得到的评论。
尽管,或者说像 Carad、Palanteer 这类人,尽管 Car 说:“哦,我喜欢 Daario。他太聪明了。”哦,但他们都会被国有化,都会归零,他们的投资者会损失很多钱。
这是 Daario 在回击,说,你知道,人们批评我们,但我们在尽最大努力。
>> that's an important part right there. Daario is going to go into this idea of, "Hey, we do our best with safety, this, that, or whatever." But what's actually really interesting is Daario kind of slaps back at the commentary that he gets from people like Palunteer.
Even though, or people like Carad, Palanteer, even though Car's like, "Oh, I like Daario. He's so smart." Oh, but they're all going to get nationalized and they're going to go to zero and their investors are going to lose a lot of money.
This is Daario slapping back going, you know, people criticized us, but we're doing our best.
但我认为值得冷静地看待这件事到底是什么。这是一家好公司。这是一家赚大钱的公司。他们有点资格傲慢,但说整个市场都会崩盘、这些公司都会被国有化,就有点太极端了。我不相信这一点。我确实认为他说“嘿,在确保我们的对手不跑到前面去这方面,还有一些工作要做”是公允的。
But I think it's worth putting a level head on what this is. It is a good company. It's a company that makes great money. They're kind of right to be arrogant, but it's a little too extreme to say the entire market's going to crash and these companies are going to nationalize.
I don't believe that. I do think it's fair that he says, "Hey, there's some work to do on uh, you know, essentially making sure our adversaries don't get ahead.
这个频道对 $PLTR 的历次判断
Meet Kevin 在这只股票上共 6 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。