高通（QCOM）因估值低廉和数据中心增长潜力，是一个具有吸引力的买入标的，未来12-18个月有67%的上涨空间。
逐段跳播
几天前，即8月26日，高通提醒投资者其在为人工智能而更新的数据中心内获取市场份额的雄心。该公司表示，其第一代高带宽计算HBC计划于2027年开始商业出货。
A few days ago on August 26th, Qualcomm reminded investors of its ambition for gaining market share inside the data centers updated for artificial intelligence. The company said its high-bandwidth compute HBC, its first generation, is slated for commercial shipment in 2027.
那么，鉴于该公司在核心业务（即智能手机）之外扩张的成功，以及在汽车和计算机领域的成功，投资者是否应对高通在数据中心的雄心感到兴奋？在这次扩张中，高通的股票是否是买入机会？
So, given the company's success in expanding outside its core competency, which is smartphones, and its success in automotive and computers, should investors be excited about Qualcomm's ambitions in data centers? And is Qualcomm's stock a buying opportunity amid this expansion?
多年来，高通在扩大销售方面做得非常出色。我提到其核心类别是智能手机。它在向汽车领域的扩张中做得很好，最近在向笔记本电脑和个人电脑领域的扩张中也做得很好。
So, over the years Qualcomm has done an excellent job expanding sales. I mentioned its core category is smartphones. It's done a great job expanding into the automotive segment and more recently it's done a great job expanding into the laptop and personal computer segment.
因此，鉴于其在核心业务之外投资取得的成功，可以合理假设高通将在数据中心获得可观的市场份额，而这是一个蓬勃发展的行业，预计2027年支出将达到1.2万亿美元，2028年可能更多。
So, given its success investing outside of its core competency, it's reasonable to assume that Qualcomm will gain meaningful market share in the data centers and that's an industry that's booming with an estimated $1.2 trillion of spending in 2027 and likely more in 2028.
高通的收入从2017年的220亿美元翻倍至过去十二个月的440亿美元。
Qualcomm's [snorts] revenue has doubled from $22 billion in 2017 to $44 billion over the trailing 12-month period.
话虽如此，尽管高通在过去十年中收入增长超过一倍或大致翻倍，其营业利润率一直波动并呈下降趋势。2017年，其营业利润率为29%。最近，其营业利润率为23.5%。
That said, while Qualcomm's revenues have more than doubled or roughly doubled in the previous decade. Its operating profit margins have been volatile and trending downward. In 2017, it boasted an operating profit margin of 29%. More recently, it boasted an operating margin of 23 and 1/2%.
因此，为在核心业务之外扩张而进行的所有研发支出都损害了公司的盈利能力。现在，随着向数据中心市场的扩张，可以合理假设其营业利润率将先下降，然后在其在数据中心市场取得成功后上升。
So, all of that research and development expense to expand outside of its core competency has cost the company profitability. Now, with expansions into the data center market, it's reasonable to assume that its operating margin will trend lower before moving higher after and if it achieves success in the data center market.
同样，其投入资本回报率一直波动，但该指标呈上升趋势。目前为23%，大约是公司加权平均资本成本的两倍，大约是2017年水平的两倍。
Similarly, its returns on invested capital have been volatile, but this metric has trended upward. At 23%, it's roughly two times the company's weighted average cost of capital and roughly double where it was in 2017.
因此，鉴于公司在研发方面的投资不断增加，很高兴看到管理团队在资本配置方面相对有效。
So, given the company's increasing investments in research and development, it's nice to see that the management team has been relatively effective at allocating capital.
高通的估值相对便宜，因为它面临近期的不利因素，而其投资于数据中心扩张的收益可能要到2027年下半年和2028年上半年才能实现。
Qualcomm's valuation is relatively cheap because it faces near-term headwinds and the benefits of its investments in expanding into the data center are not likely to come to fruition until maybe the second half of 2027 and the first half of 2028.
而这些只是初步的爬坡阶段。这些细分市场可能需要更多时间才能成熟并对公司的营收和利润做出有意义的贡献。与此同时，在短期内，其核心类别——智能手机行业——面临重大不利因素。内存和存储价格上涨导致2026年智能手机销量大幅下降。
这种情况可能会持续到今年剩余时间，甚至可能贯穿2027年，因为数据中心正在吸收大部分可用的内存和存储容量。因此，这给智能手机行业留下了剩余部分。
And those are just the initial ramping stages. It'll likely take more time for those segments to reach maturity and be a meaningful contributor to the company's top and bottom line. Meanwhile, in the near-term, there are significant headwinds in its core category, the smartphone industry. Higher prices for memory and storage are causing significant decreases in the number of units sold of smartphones in 2026. That's likely to persist for the rest of this year and probably even throughout 2027 as data centers are absorbing a large percentage of the capacity available for memory and storage. And so, that's leaving the smartphone industry with leftovers.
高通的远期市盈率为16.6。我还计算了该业务的公允价值，得出的结论是其价值为283美元，而当前市场价格为170美元。
Qualcomm is trading at a forward price to earnings of 16.6. I also calculated a fair value of the business and I came to the conclusion that it's worth $283 compared to the current market price of $170.
鉴于这一差异，我计算出高通股票在未来12至18个月内有67%的上涨空间。
Given that difference, I've calculated a 67% upside for Qualcomm stock over the next 12 to 18 months.
上涨空间可能会在该12至18个月期间的后期实现。正如我所提到的，数据中心的产品发布不太可能在2027-2028年之前发生。
The upside is likely to be captured towards the later end of that 12 to 18-month period. As I mentioned, the product releases for the data center are unlikely to happen until 2027-2028.
但随着我们越来越接近，我们可能会看到公司发布更多关于这些即将到来的生产爬坡的公告，或许还会与一些大型超大规模企业（如微软、亚马逊和Alphabet）以及Meta Platforms签署协议。
But as we get closer, we're likely to see more announcements from the company about those upcoming production ramps and perhaps deals signed with some of the large hyperscalers like Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet, in addition to Meta Platforms.
但超大规模企业更倾向于分解其解决方案，与多家供应商和提供商合作，包括使用自己的专有芯片，与博通、高通等合作，以开发其整个计算堆栈。
But the hyperscalers are more interested in disaggregating their solutions, going with several vendors and several providers including using their own proprietary chips, partnering with Broadcom, Qualcomm, and etc. in order to develop their entire computing stack.
话虽如此，鉴于相对便宜的估值——无论我是以远期市盈率衡量还是使用我的贴现现金流方法衡量——高通股票看起来是一个有吸引力的股票买入机会，我对这一排名有相对较高的信心和相对较高的置信水平。
That being said, given the relatively cheap valuation whether I'm measuring on a forward price to earnings basis or whether I'm measuring using my discounted cash flow basis, Qualcomm stock looks like an attractive stock buying opportunity where I have a relatively high conviction, relatively high confidence level on this ranking.
他说在等什么
这个频道对 $QCOM 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。