$RBLX

RBLX缺乏吸引力;在约50亿美元营收下未能盈利,原因是费用过高(研发、SBC)。

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Rational Investing - Cameron Stewart, CFA发布 2026-08-11 · 4 段内容
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4 段内容

Roblox。我不知道,伙计。你想看看那个吗?好吧,让我们看看。看看我们有什么。

Roblox. I don't know, man. You want to take a look at that? Okay, let's take a look. See what we got.

Roblox。让我们看看。不错的收入。好吧,收入同比增长35%,利润率在增长。过去几年毛利率在上升。看起来早期持平,或者回到了23%。对于一家软件公司来说,这似乎很低。23%。

他们的收入成本是多少?那么多开发者。那似乎是PG,PNG在你的雷达上。也许我们今晚可以谈到。看看我们有多少时间。研发。哦,我的天。15亿的研发。看看这个研发费用。拜托,伙计们。

加上销售和营销。这是你的管理费用。他们可能有大量的股票薪酬。然后他们赚了什么?收入。在这个,这是营业收入,不应该这样倒挂。收入应该是正的。他们在历史上从未实现过正的营业收入。他们有近50亿的收入,却赚不到一分钱利润。

为什么这么难?你带进50亿美元。而要做到这一点,花费了你60亿。

Roblox. Let's take a look. Uh, nice revenue. Okay, revenue growing 35% year-over-year margins are growing. Profit gross profit margin last couple years it's moved up. It looks like it was flat early on or it's kind of returned to this 23. That seems low for a software company. 23%. What is their cost of revenue? that many developers. That seems PG's PNG is on your radar. Maybe we can get to it tonight. See how how much time we got. R&D. Oh my god. 1.5 billion of R&D. Look at this R&D expense. Come on, guys. Plus selling and marketing. There's your admin. They probably have a good slug of stockbased comp. And then what did they what they make? Income. in the this is operating in income is not supposed to be upside down like this. Income should be positive. They have never made positive operating income in their history. They have almost five billion in revenue and they can't make a single dollar in profit. Why is it that is it that hard? You're bringing five billion dollars in the front door. And to do that, it cost you six.

让我们看看现金流。有人想猜一下吗?让我们这样做。现在在评论区猜猜他们的股票薪酬是多少。在50亿的营收中。我还没看过这个。我们有公司费用5.8亿。在评论区给我一个猜测,你认为股票薪酬是多少,我们来看看。

我猜是8000万,我不知道。我没看过,可能完全错了。我们会看到的。8亿。好吧,伙计。我们走吧。我的意思是,如果你在那里工作过,如果你能做到,如果你有能力走进董事会说:“我想要8亿美元的薪酬,拜托。”

然后他们说:“哦,哦,好吧。算我一个。”1.45亿。给你。8000万。猜测不断涌来。好吧,让我们看看。让我们看看我们有什么。现金流量表,股票薪酬[哼声和笑声]11亿。抱歉。我没有分享我的屏幕。

抱歉。这整段时间我都在那里说话。股票薪酬1129。哦,我的天。怎么会这样?那大得令人发指。

Let's take a look at cash flow. Anybody want to take a guess? Let's do this. Let's take throw throw guesses in the comments right now on what their stockbased comp is. One the five billion of topline revenue. And I haven't looked at this. We've got corporate expenses 580 million. Throw me a guess in the comments for what you think stockbased comp is and we'll take a look. I'm guessing it's a I'm guessing 80 million and I don't know. I haven't looked at could be totally wrong. We'll see. 800 million. All right, dude. Let's go. I mean, if you've worked there, like, if you can do it, if you you have the chops to go into the board and say, "I'd like $800 million of comp, please." And they're like, "Oh, oh, yeah, okay. Sign me up." 145 million. There you go. 80 million. Guesses are rolling in. All right, let's see. Let's see what we got. Cash flow statement stock bit [snorts and laughter] 1.1 billion. I'm sorry. I'm not I'm not sharing my screen. I'm sorry. This whole time I'm I'm talking right there. Stock base comp 1129. Oh my god. H how is that? That's That's offensively large.

所以,让我理清一下。让我们回到利润表,因为显然我一直没有分享。所以,收入看起来不错,对吧?好吧。增长的收入,他们实现了略低于50亿的收入。好吧,不错。毛利润在赚钱。不错。这是你的研发费用。

真的,非常大。15亿。那很糟糕。他们怎么研发的?哦,我想我知道。所以,我反应的是,他们把这些钱藏在哪里?通常,股票薪酬会支付给员工。大多数员工会归入销售费用,他们归入一般和行政费用。

他们的总费用是5.8亿。如果你的G&A只有5.8亿,你怎么藏11亿的成本?这就是为什么销售成本这么高。他们带走员工,说:“嘿,你写代码软件。你是我收入生成机器的一部分。我要把你推进销售成本。”

这意味着这个销售成本数字是37亿。所以,这不像你通常认为的销售成本,你想到的是工厂工人或制造产品时消耗的单位的人。但如果你说你的产品是软件,我在这里推测,你可以,而且这些人不断生成用于产生收入的软件,你可以把他们移到那里。

那是一个更大的数字。现在,37亿,这更容易隐藏11亿的股票薪酬,在像销售成本这样的整体费用桶中。那就是他们埋藏的地方。而且你可以。

So, let me get this straight. Let's go back to the P now because I apparently I wasn't sharing all this time. So, revenue looks good, right? Okay. Growing topline, they make just under five billion in revenue. Okay, fine. Gross profit making money. Not bad. Here. Here's your R&D expense. Really, really large. 1.5 billion. That That's That's rough. Um, how do they even R&D? Oh, I I think I know what So, what I'm what I'm reacting is where do they even hide this money? So, normally normally um stockbased comp goes to the employees. Most the employees go to sit in selling they sit in general administrative expenses. Their GNA is 580 million total expense. Where do you hide 1.1 billion in costs if your GNA is only 580? That's why the COGS is so high. They take their employees and they say, "Hey, you write code software. you're part of my revenue generation machine. I'm going to push you into cost of goods sold. That means this cost of goods sold number is 1 point is 3.7 billion. So this isn't like you know normally think COGS you think like um you know factory workers or people who are making the units that are consumed when you sell the product. But if you say your product is software and I'm speculating here, you can and and these people are constantly generating software that's used to make revenue, you can move them up there. That's a bigger number. Now 1 3.7 billion, that's easier to hide 1.1 billion of stockbased comp overall expense bucket like COGS is. That's where they buried it. And you can

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这个频道对 $RBLX 的历次判断

Rational Investing - Cameron Stewart, CFA 在这只股票上共 2 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。

2026-08-26看跌
Roblox。我们来看一下。嗯,收入不错。好的。
原话 00:01 ›
2026-08-11看跌本条
Roblox。我不知道,伙计。你想看看那个吗?好吧,让我们看看。看看我们有什么。
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