RBLX因持续经营亏损和过度的股票补偿稀释(5年内40亿美元,约占市值的20%)而不可投资。
逐段跳播
Roblox。我们来看一下。嗯,收入不错。好的。收入同比增长 35%。利润率在增长。过去几年的毛利率有所上升。看起来早期是持平的,或者说又回到了 23%。对于一家软件公司来说,这似乎很低。23%。
Roblox. Let's take a look. Uh, nice revenue. Okay. Revenue growing 35% year-over-year. Margins are growing. Profit gross profit margin last couple years. It's moved up. It looks like it was flat early on or it's kind of returned to this 23. That seems low for a software company. 23%.
他们的收入成本是多少?是不是有很多开发者?这似乎……研发。天哪。15 亿美元的研发。看看这笔研发费用。拜托,各位。再加上销售和营销。这是你们的管理费用。他们可能有一大笔股票薪酬。
What is their cost of revenue? Is that many developers? That seems R&D. Oh my god. 1.5 billion of R&D. Look at this R&D expense. Come on, guys. Plus selling marketing. There's your admin. They probably have a good slug of stockbased comp.
然后他们赚了什么?收入……这个营业收入不应该这样倒挂。收入应该是正的。他们在历史上从未实现过正的营业收入。他们有近 50 亿美元的收入,却赚不到一美元的利润。为什么这么难?你把 50 亿美元带进前门,但要做到这一点,却花了你 60 亿。
And then what did they what they make? income in the this is operating income is not supposed to be upside down like this. Income should be positive. They have never made positive operating income in their history. They have almost five billion in revenue and they can't make a single dollar in profit. Why is it that is it that hard? You're bringing $5 billion dollar in the front door and to do that it cost you six.
我们来看看现金流。有人想猜一下吗?我们这样吧。现在就在评论区猜猜他们的股票薪酬是多少,相对于 15 亿的营收。我还没看过这个。我们有公司费用 5.8 亿。在评论区给我一个猜测,你认为股票薪酬是多少,我们来看看。
我猜是……我猜是 8000 万,我不知道,还没看,可能完全错了。我们等着瞧。8 亿。好吧,老兄。我们开始吧。我的意思是,如果你在那里工作过,如果你能做到,如果你有本事走进董事会说:“我想要 8 亿美元的薪酬,谢谢。”
然后他们说:“哦,哦,好的。算我一个。1.45 亿。给你。8000 万。”猜测不断涌来。好吧。让我们看看。让我们看看我们得到了什么。现金流量表,股票……[笑声] 11 亿。
Let's take a look at cash flow. Anybody want to take a guess? Let's do this. Let's take throw throw guesses in the comments right now on what their stockbased comp is one five billion of topline revenue. And I haven't looked at this. We've got corporate expenses 580 million. Throw me a guess in the comments for what you think stockbased comp is and we'll take a look. I'm guessing it's a I'm guessing 80 million and I don't know haven't looked at could be totally wrong. We'll see. 800 million. All right, dude. Let's go. I mean, if you've worked there, like, if you can do it, if you you have the chops to go into the board and say, "I'd like $800 million of comp, please." And they're like, "Oh, oh, yeah, okay. Sign me up. 145 million. There you go. 80 million." Guesses are rolling in. All right. Let's see. Let's see what we got. Cash flow statement stock bit [laughter] 1.1 billion.
对不起。我没有共享屏幕。对不起。这段时间我一直在那里说话。股票薪酬 1129。哦,天哪。怎么会这样?这……这大得离谱。
I'm sorry. I'm not I'm not sharing my screen. I'm sorry. This whole time I'm I'm talking right there. Stockbased comp 1129. Oh my god. H how is that? That's that's offensively large.
所以让我搞清楚。我们回到损益表,因为显然我一直没有共享。所以收入看起来不错,对吧?好的。增长的收入,他们赚了不到 50 亿美元的收入。好的,可以。毛利润在赚钱。不错。这里,这是你的研发费用。
真的非常大。15 亿。这……这很难受。嗯,他们到底怎么研发的?哦,我想我知道。所以,我反应的是,他们到底把这些钱藏在哪里?通常,股票薪酬会发给员工。大多数员工会归入销售费用,归入一般管理费用。
他们的 G&A 总额是 5.8 亿。如果你的 G&A 只有 5.8 亿,你怎么藏 11 亿的成本?这就是为什么 COGS 这么高。他们把员工拉过来,说:“嘿,你写代码软件。你是我收入生成机器的一部分。
我要把你推进销售成本里。”这意味着这个销售成本数字是 37 亿。所以这不像你通常想的 COGS,你通常想的是工厂工人或制造产品时消耗的单元的人。但如果你说你的产品是软件,我在这里推测,你可以把这些不断生成用于产生收入的软件的人移到那里。
那是一个更大的数字。现在,37 亿,这更容易藏 11 亿的股票薪酬,像 COGS 这样的整体费用桶。这就是他们埋藏的地方。你可以在这里看到,我无法移动鼠标来指,但你可以看到右边这两个大的……
最近两个时期,右边那个大的负数,那个和上一个之间的差距,从负 26 亿到负 37 亿。这个差值是 11 亿。这个差值与这个股票薪酬 11.29 亿美元非常吻合。这大得离谱。
So let me get this straight. Let's go back to the P&L because I apparently I wasn't sharing all this time. So revenue looks good, right? Okay. Growing top line, they make just under five billion in revenue. Okay, fine. gross profit making money. Not bad. Here, here's your R&D expense. Really, really large. 1.5 billion. That that's that's rough. Um, how do they even R&D? Oh, I I think I know what. So, what I'm what I'm reacting is how where do they even hide this money? So normally normally um stockbased comp goes to the employees. Most the employees go to sit in selling they sit in general administrative expenses. Their GNA is 580 million total expense. Where do you hide 1.1 billion in costs if your GNA is only 580? That's why the COGS is so high. They take their employees and they say, "Hey, you write code software. You're part of my revenue generation machine. I'm going to push you into cost of goods sold." That means this cost of goods sold number is 1 point is 3.7 billion. So this isn't like you know normally think COGS you think like um you know factory workers or people who are making the units that are consumed when you sell the product. But if you say your product is software and I'm speculating here, you can and and these people are constantly generating software that's used to make revenue, you can move them up there. That's a bigger number. Now, one 3.7 billion, that's easier to hide 1.1 billion of stockbased comp overall expense bucket like COGS is. That's where they buried it. And you can see right here between I can't move my mouse to point but you can see these two large um on the on the right hand side the two most recent periods that large negative on the right the gap between that one and the one previous that goes from 2.6 billion negative to 3.7 billion negative. That delta is 1.1 billion. And that delta lines up very well with this with this this stockbased comp $1.129 billion. That is offensively large.
比如,让我们看看他们有多少……所以,拿出计算器。让我们看看过去五年的所有股票薪酬。1129 + 1015 + 868 + 589 + 341。那是过去五年。过去五年,从 2021 年到 2025 年,支付了 40 亿美元的股票薪酬。
40 亿美元,这几乎是他们一年全部收入,作为薪酬的一部分,在工资、现金奖金、医疗和福利之外,送给了员工。我敢肯定他们的办公室很豪华,或者这些人远程工作。我敢肯定他们有零食,也许还有无限带薪假期。
还有人真的去上班吗?所以,不,我不喜欢这家公司,这简直是在榨取股东的钱。
Like let's look at how much they've so what is bring up a calculator. Let's look at all their stockbased comp in the last five years. 1129 + 1015 + 868 + 589 + 341. That's last 5 years. $4 billion in stockbased comp was paid out in the last five years from 2021 to 2025. um $4 billion that is almost one year's entire revenue was given away to the employees as part of uh on top of their salary, on top of cash bonuses, on top of health care and benefits. I'm sure their offices are lavish or maybe these guys work remote. I'm sure they get snacks and maybe unlimited paid vacation. like is anybody showing up to work like like that? So, no, I I I I'm not a fan of this of this company that is uh that is that is just fleecing shareholders of their money.
让我们看看股价表现。目前市值是多少?嗯,市值 260 亿。所以 260 亿,他们送出了多少?那是 20%。40 亿的股票相对于 260 亿。是的。当前市值的 20% 已经作为薪酬送给了员工。
而且他们的股票,如果你看这张五年图表,股价是平的。股权所有者从这家公司得到了什么?如果他们所做的只是印股票然后交给员工。员工套现。他们在赚钱。你没有。这不是你想买的公司。我认为这应该采取法律行动。
有些东西太恶劣了。对股东如此不诚实,说:“嘿,别担心。我们会增长。”嗯,我敢肯定,如果你看看过去几年的投资者演示,它可能会说:“嘿,买我们的股票。我们要增加收入。我们要增加收益。”
等等等等。而股票做了什么?什么都没做。为什么?因为他们把它从后门输送给了自己。是的。是的。这是对正义的践踏。
Let's take a look at the at the at the stock performance. What's the market cap currently? uh market cap 26 billion. So 26 billion they've given away what's that 20%. 4 billion in stock against 26 billion. Yeah. 20 20% of the current market cap has been given to the employees as comp uh and their stock if you look at this uh five-year chart stock is flat. What are the equity owners getting out of this company? If everything they do is just print shares and hand them to the employees. The employees cash them out. They're making money. You are not. This is not a company you want to buy. That is that is a that I think that should be legal action there. There's there's something so egregious about that. Something so disingenuous uh to the stock owners to say, "Hey, don't worry. We're going to grow." Um like I'm sure if you looked at the investor presentations in this past couple years, it probably said, "Hey, buy our stocks. We're going to go revenue. We're going to go earnings." Blah blah blah blah. And what does the stock do? Nothing. Why? because they're they're funneling it out the back door to themselves. Yeah. Yeah. It's it's a miscarriage of justice.
这个频道对 $RBLX 的历次判断
Rational Investing - Cameron Stewart, CFA 在这只股票上共 2 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。