说话者基于Remitly近期强劲的财务表现(利润率扩张、营销投资回报率)持有大量个人股份,但因其缺乏持久的长期护城河而将其排除在核心投资组合之外。
逐段跳播
无论如何,我想谈的不是Visa和Mastercard。我想谈的是Remitly,我认为我在大约12到13美元的价格买入该股,那是在我推介之后达到的,我为我的个人投资组合买了一个相当大的仓位,自那以来它上涨了大约80%到90%,模式与它非常相似,这就是为什么我今天想讨论它作为我们的赢家股票之一,尽管它不是内在价值投资组合的一部分。
Anyway, I want to talk about not Visa and Mascat. I want to talk about remittly and I think I went into the stock at about 12 to $13 which it reached after my pitch and I bought a quite sizable position for my personal portfolio and since it's gone up about 80 to 90% and the pattern is pretty similar to it which is why I want to discuss it today as one of our winning stocks even though it's not part of the intrinsic value portfolio
我预期Remitly在2028年,甚至可能2029年达到的利润率水平,在最近两个季度已经实现,净利润大幅增长,公司展示了它可以高度盈利地运营。
the margin level that I expected remittly to hit in 2028, potentially even 2029 has already been achieved in the last two quarters where net income has inflicted materially and the company showed it can operate highly profitably.
像Remitly和Reddit这样的公司确实表明,你真的必须了解一家企业的盈利能力。你知道,看看Remitly,我记得去年年底,公司下调了EBITDA利润率指引。你知道,EBITDA是营业利润的代理指标。
他们将其从16%下调至12%。然后股票大幅抛售,你可以想象。所以如果你现在看,利润率是22%,他们仅仅在一个季度内就实现了那个转变。所以我毫不怀疑管理层可能一直都知道利润率潜力,因此我刚刚提到的盈利能力观点。
感觉他们决定,嘿,我们必须向投资者展示这家公司一旦我们更专注于盈利能力和利润率,它能做什么。显然这就是全部所需。这是我见过的最快的利润率转变之一。也许除了Reddit。那当然令人印象深刻。我可以说我预料到了这样的季度内转变。
Companies like Hermittly and Reddit do show you that you really have to understand the earnings power of a business. And you know, looking at remittly, I remember at the end of last year, the company guided down their EBITDA margins. You know, EBITDA is a proxy for operating earnings. They guided it down from 16% to 12%. And then the stock sold off pretty dramatically as you could imagine. So if you look at it now, that margin is at 22% and they pulled off that turnaround just in a single quarter. So I have no doubt that the management team probably always knew about the margin potential, hence the earnings power point that I made a moment ago. And it feels like they decided though, hey, we got to show investors what this company is capable of as soon as we focus more on profitability and margins. And apparently that is all it takes. It's one of the quickest margin turnarounds I've ever seen. Maybe besides Reddit. It was impressive for sure. And I can say that I expected an intraquarter turnaround like that.
而且并不是说Remitly停止投资。我的意思是,他们主要的支出,正如我们当时也提到的,是营销,而Remitly在营销支出上有着惊人的回报。我认为在获得客户几年后大约是6倍。所以,你不希望他们停止在广告上花钱,他们主要节省的是工资和营销以外的投资。
And it's not like remittly stopped investing. I mean their major expense as we also covered back then is marketing and remittly has an incredible return on that marketing spend. I think it's about 6x after just a few years of an acquired customer. So, you don't want them to stop spending on ads and they primarily saved on wages and investments beyond marketing.
我只想提供一些背景,说明为什么是这样。我能理解不将一家公司纳入内在价值投资组合,但在你的个人投资组合中特别大仓位,这让人困惑。而Sean对支付公司的疑虑显然只是原因的一小部分。
And I just want to give a bit of background on why that is. And I could see how it's confusing to not include a company in the intrinsic value portfolio, but to make it especially a sizable bat in your personal portfolio. And Sean's doubts about payment companies are obviously only a small part of the reason.
所以如果我不想拥有Remitly,Kyle也不想,那么理论上我们仍然可以将其添加到内在价值投资组合中,只要你在其中有重要股份,Daniel。所以如果我们三人之间没有共识,它不会是一个完整仓位,但它可以是一个1%或2%的跟踪仓位,就像我们处理Reddit那样,在我不明智地不想立即将其设为完整仓位之后,因为再次,我缺乏你所看到的远见。
And so if I don't want to own remittly and and Kyle doesn't either, then we can theoretically still add it to the intrinsic value portfolio as long as you have a meaningful stake in it, Daniel. And so it wouldn't be a full position if we don't have consensus among the three of us, but it could be a one or 2% tracking position as we handled it with Reddit after I unwisely didn't want to make it a full position immediately because again I lacked the vision that you saw.
我没有推动添加Remitly。嗯,主要出于两个原因。第一个是时间范围。这个播客每周播出两次。那时,它曾经每周只播出一次。我们主要专注于每次推介新公司,而不是回顾旧公司,所有投资组合持仓,这在某种程度上是我们今天所做的。
这也意味着我们不能真正购买需要每日或至少每周审查的价值投资,并且会在几周或几个月后卖出,仅仅因为让人们保持更新要困难得多。有太多公司我们不断收到问题,它们甚至不在我们的投资组合中。
所以这有点难以处理,这就是为什么我们主要添加我们认为具有可持续模式的公司,我们可以持有多年。我不期望Remitly成为那种公司,尽管我想说我希望在我的个人账户中尽可能长时间地持有它。
I didn't push on adding midly. Um, and it was primarily for two reasons. So, the first one is Time Horizon. This podcast is going out twice a week. Back then, it used to be only once per week. And we are primarily focused on pitching new companies each time, not reviewing old ones, all portfolio holdings, which to some extent is what we're doing today. And that also means that we can't really buy value plays that need daily or at least weekly reviewing and will be sold after a couple of weeks or months simply because it's so much harder to keep people updated. There's so many companies that we constantly getting questions about and they are not even in our portfolio. So it was just a bit too much to handle and that's why we settle for primarily adding companies that we see as having sustainable modes that we can hold for many many years. And I don't expect remittly to be that sort of company, although I would say that I hope to own for as long as possible in my personal account.
一个很好的例子说明为什么可能不会如此,就是他们刚刚经历了一些重大且意外的业务变化。虽然我认为这些是正确的事情和正确的决定,但这些事情不会发生在Google、Amazon或Netflix这样的公司。
And and a good example for why that might not end up being the case is that they just went through some major and unexpected business changes. And while I think they were the right thing to do and the right decision, those things just wouldn't happen at, you know, Google, Amazon, or Netflix, those sorts of companies.
听起来你可能指的是CEO卸任的事。你仍然了解这家公司,那还不错。那也是其中的一部分。而且确实进展顺利。我认为他这么做主要是因为考虑到公司目前的规模,他觉得新CEO会做得更好,因为公司已经从一个小盘股变成了中盘股。
但这也令人意外,我得这么说。而且他们在那之前不久还推出了新产品,主要面向微型和小型企业。你可以说这总体上是好事,但我有点喜欢他们专注于汇款业务,我希望他们能继续保持这个主要焦点,因为企业领域竞争非常激烈,对吧?
微型企业和个体经营者不同,但这是进入中小企业领域的第一步,而那里有很多公司在争夺相同的客户。
Yeah, it sounds like you might be referring to the CEO stepping down. you're still informed about the company. That's not too bad. And yeah, that was part of it. Um, and it did go well. I think he primarily did it because he generally felt like the new CEO would do a better job considering the current size of the company because again, sort of going from a small cap to a midcap by now. But it was also surprising. I got to say that. And they also introduced new products just briefly before that that are aimed more at the micro and small businesses. And you could argue that it's generally a good thing, but I sort of like the sole focus on remittances and I hope they will keep that as their primary focus because there's a whole lot of competition in the enterprise space, right? Micro businesses and solarreneurs are different, but it's a first step to go into this SMB space, small and medium businesses, and there are just a lot of companies competing for the same customers there.
这个频道对 $RELY 的历次判断
The Intrinsic Value Podcast 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。