RH值得买入；若房地产市场在2027/28年复苏，股价有望在12-24个月内翻三倍，但存在50%的下行风险。
逐段跳播
你知道，RH就是一个很好的例子，对吧？RH在2022年其业务的黄金时期进行了20亿美元的大规模股票回购。看看RH当时的净利润，对吧？那太惊人了。他们实现的利润率太惊人了。就像，“哦我的天，这项业务现在正处于最佳状态，不是吗？”
You know, RH is a great example of that, right? RH did a massive $2 billion share buyback in 2022 during the golden age of their business. Look at RH's net income at that time, right?
It was incredible. The margins they achieved were incredible. It was like, "Oh my God, this business is at its best right now, isn't it?"
2021年、2022年的时候，股价大概在700美元甚至更高，对吧？我记得2021年它涨到过700以上，对吧？就拿Gary Friedman来说，他是个了不起的企业缔造者，对吧？
他接手RH的时候，公司已经濒临破产。他把它打造成了一个令人惊叹的高端家具品牌，这确实非常出色、非同凡响。
The stock price was around $700 or more in '21, '22, right? I think it went above 700 in 2021, right? Take Gary Friedman, he's a great business builder, isn't he? When he took over RH, the company was on the verge of bankruptcy.
He has turned it into an incredible brand of high-end furniture, which is truly brilliant and extraordinary.
但这个人对股市没什么概念，对吧？他以极低的价格回购了价值20亿美元的股票。他本可以在今天以他买入价的一半甚至更低的价格买到同样的股票，对吧？这是一个非常糟糕的财务决策。
But the man doesn't have much idea about the stock market, right? He bought back $2 billion worth of shares at a very low price. He could have bought the same shares today for 50 percent of the price he bought them for or even less, right? This was a very bad financial decision.
好，我今天买入的四只股票中的第一只是RH。RH，这笔买入是12,000美元，准确说是12,253美元。我又买入了100股RH。
Okay, the first of the four stocks I bought today is RH. RH, it was a $12,000 purchase, $12,253 to be exact. I bought 100 more shares of RH.
如你所知，我最近在频道上已经谈过这只股票几次了。在我看来，对RH来说这是一个很好的买入机会。风险型股票，如果经营状况恶化或者发生类似的事情。也就是说，股价下跌的风险依然存在。比如，股价会不会腰斩？当然，为什么不会呢？
As you know, I've talked about this stock a few times on the channel recently. In my opinion, this is a great opportunity to buy for RH. Risky stocks, if business conditions worsen or something like that happens.
That is, the risk of a price drop remains. For example, can the stock price be halved? Sure, why not?
但你必须明白，如果房地产市场在2027年或28年回暖，你可能会看到RH的股价在短短12到24个月内涨到三倍。所以问题是，有没有可能下跌50%？有。但如果你说它真的有可能在未来24个月内涨到三倍，那么能在24个月内让你的投资翻三倍的股票是非常少的，对吧？
But you have to understand, if the housing market turns around in 2027 or 28, you could see RH's stock price triple in just 12 to 24 months. So the question is, is there a possibility of a 50 percent price drop?
Yes. But if you say there's a real chance it will triple in the next 24 months, then there are very few stocks where you can triple your investment in 24 months, right?
而且它是我会看着并想着“哦，如果我们判断对了，房地产市场在2027年和28年慢慢回暖，可能会有很大的收益，对吧？”的那种稀有股票之一。但现在，没人想要这只股票。国债收益率现在高得多。
房地产市场现在几乎已经死了，对吧？现在没人想要RH这样的股票。
And it's one of those rare stocks that I look at and think, "Oh, if we get this right and the housing market slowly turns around in 2027 and '28, there could be great gains, right?"
"But right now, nobody wants this stock." Treasury yields are much higher now. The housing market is almost dead now, right? No one wants a stock like RH right now.
这个频道对 $RH 的历次判断
Financial Education 在这只股票上共 8 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。