RIOT的AI转型存在重大风险（资本支出、建设、租户集中）且收入延迟；将敞口限制在不超过1%。
逐段跳播
对 Riot 作为 AI 基础设施投资有什么看法？他们刚刚与 Enthropic 达成了一项 91 亿美元的数据中心交易，用于托管 AI 计算，大幅偏离纯粹的比特币挖矿。我很好奇你是否认为他们会重新估值，成为多年的 AI 房东，或者资本支出要求和加密货币关联是否使其风险太大。
Any thought on Riot for the AI infrastructure play? They just landed a $9.1 billion data center deal with Enthropic to host AI compute, pivoting heavily away from pure Bitcoin mining. Curious if you see them revaluing as a multi-deade AI landlord or if the capex requirements and crypto ties make it too risky.
那么，让我们谈谈 Riot。Riot 是一个有趣的标的。那是一个我进进出出的矿工。但正如我从第一天起就说的，挖矿是一个残酷的行业，向 HPC 高性能计算的转变对某些矿工来说意义重大。而 Riot 实际上做得非常好。
So, let's talk about Riot. Uh Riot is an interesting play. That's a minor I have been in and out of. Uh but as I always say since day one, mining is a cutthroat business and the pivot to HPC high performance compute has been big for some of the miners. And Riottock has actually done surprisingly well.
但他们确实做了那笔 191 兆瓦的交易，而且直到 2028 年才会开始提供全部电力。无论如何，一份头条合同并不等于即时的净现值。他们仍然面临很多问题，比如高额的资本支出、高施工风险、高租户集中度，以及他们将使用哪些GPU等等。很多问题。
But they did do that 191 megawatt deal and it doesn't start delivering full power until 2028. Anyway, a headline contract is not immediate net present value. They still have very a lot of things like heavy capex, heavy construction risk, heavy tenant concentration, what GPUs are they going to use, etc. A lot of questions.
另外，当他们得到消息时，也就是一两周前，股价上涨了25%。然后立即回撤，全部回吐。所以，并没有发生真正的重新评级。
Also, when they got the news, and there was a week or two ago, the stock popped 25%. And immediately retraced, gave it all back. So, there was no rerate per se.
深入研究细节时，这有点令人兴奋，但也有些吓人，因为还很遥远。所以现在的好消息是能源稀缺。德克萨斯州的廉价兆瓦是真实的。这很好。但还有过桥贷款和施工风险。而且你还有一大堆事情。你有租户集中度。还有我之前提到的资本支出。
It's kind of exciting when you dig into the weeds. kind of scary as it's far out. So now the good news is energy is scarce. Cheap Texas megawatts is real. That's good. But there is that bridge loan and there's a construction risk. Uh and you got a whole bunch of things. You got tenant concentration. You got capex as I covered before.
谁知道Anthropic会发生什么，那也可能是一个纸牌屋，也可能拖累这些公司。记住，191兆瓦与大型超大规模数据中心相比只是一个小数目。那不是很多电力。
Who knows what could happen to anthropic that could also be a house of cards which could drag these guys down too. And remember 191 megawws is a rounding error compared to the big hyperscalers. That is uh not a lot of power.
所以当Jensen看客户时，他会给Riot一点时间还是给Anthropic？我不知道。我们拭目以待。但人们真的能拿到这些产品吗？如果他们拿不到，而且他们拥有较旧的Nvidia设备，那将消耗更多电力，每token的成本会高得多，他们将处于竞争劣势，相对于Elon Web Services、SpaceX等。
So when Jensen looks at customers, is he going to give Riot the time of day or anthropic? I don't know. We'll see. But will people even be able to get their hands on these things? And if they can't and they have older Nvidia boxes that will suck a lot more power, the cost per token will be a lot higher and they'll be at a competitive disadvantage to Elon Web Services, SpaceX for example.
另外，这些是Riot的财务数据。债务非常高，接近9亿美元。收入一直持平。也许这会在2027年或2028年改变。好消息是净利润和IBITA（应为EBITDA）随时间推移负值减少。所以他们肯定在取得进展。
The other thing too, these are the financials for Riot. The debt is very high at nearly $900 million. The revenue has been flat. Maybe that would change in 2027 2028. The good news is the net income and IBITA is getting less negative over time. So they are definitely making progress.
但你必须非常仔细地观察，看看实际资金何时开始从Anthropic流入。就是这样。如果你想玩这个游戏，我不建议将超过1%的投资组合投入Riot或任何比特币矿商。
But you got to watch this very carefully and see exactly when the actual money starts flowing in from anthropic. That's it. If you want to play this game, I wouldn't recommend more than 1% of your portfolio into Riot or any of the Bitcoin miners.
所以要小心。顺便说一句，我之前也说过，比特币挖矿是一个残酷的行业，但AI计算也会随着时间的推移被压至底部，就像比特币挖矿一样，除非你拥有完全垂直整合，并且不租用别人的空间。
So, be careful. And by the way, I did say as well that Bitcoin mining is a cutthroat business, but AI compute will also be erased to the bottom over time, just like Bitcoin mining was unless you have complete vertical integration and you're not renting somebody else's space.
他说在等什么
这个频道对 $RIOT 的历次判断
InvestAnswers 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。