RKLB相对于公允价值被高估；维持持有评级，等待更好的入场价格。
逐段跳播
Rocket Lab 仍将重心放在于 2026 年第四季度将火箭送上发射台。该火箭即 Neutron，目前仍在研发中，且面临轻微延迟。
Rocket Lab remains heavily focused on getting the vehicle to the launch pad in the fourth quarter of 2026. This vehicle is the Neutron, which is still under development and facing a slight delay.
然而，该公司在最近一个季度录得了显著的营收增长，两个业务板块均实现增长。其整体利润率也在改善。投资者正在考虑，尽管 Neutron 的研发已推迟至 2026 年第四季度，他们是否仍应买入 Rocket Lab 的股票。
However, the company recorded significant revenue growth in its most recent quarter , achieving growth in both of its sectors. Its overall profit margins are also improving. Investors are wondering whether they should buy Rocket Lab shares despite the Neutron development being delayed to the fourth quarter of 2026.
近年来营收显著增长，过去十二个月达到 7.69 亿美元。这相比 2022 年年中约 1 亿美元有所增加。此外，该公司宣布积压订单大幅增加，达到 23.6 亿美元。你可以将其与过去十二个月 7.7 亿美元的营收相比，就会发现该公司的合同覆盖了 3 至 4 年的营收。
这一积压订单正在增加，其增长速度超过了公司的执行能力。
Revenues have risen significantly in recent years, reaching 769 million during the past twelve months. This represents an increase from approximately 100 million in mid-2022. Furthermore, the company announced a massive backlog of orders that rose significantly to $2.36 billion. You can compare that to its revenue of 770 million over the past twelve months , and you will see that the company has contracts that cover 3 to 4 years of revenue. This backlog of contracts is increasing, growing at a faster pace than the company's ability to execute.
因此，该公司仍处于发展的早期阶段。其潜力远大于当前所展现的。但目前，该公司在净利润上亏损，经营现金流与销售额之比为负的 29%。尽管该指标在 2025 年 1 月前有所改善，但改善已放缓。
Therefore, it is still in the early stages of development. This company's potential is much greater than it is today. But currently, the company is losing money on net profit, and the cash flow from operations to sales ratio is negative at 29%. Although this indicator improved until January 2025, the improvement has slowed.
当然，如果你能在 2026 年第四季度及之后成功发射 Neutron，该技术的研发成本将会下降，你将开始收获已投入投资的回报。
Of course, if you manage to launch Neutron in the fourth quarter of 2026 and beyond, the research and development costs for that technology will decrease and you will begin to reap the rewards of the investments you have already made.
然而，该公司仍计划进行大量研发投资，并且只要在未来看到机会，就可能继续这些投资。作为投资者，这应该令你满意。这是你希望从这类公司得到的。只要他们看到前方有巨大机会，你就希望他们继续投资。
However, it still has many research and development investments planned, and the company is likely to continue to make these investments as long as it sees opportunities in the future . As an investor, this should please you. This is something you would want from a company like this. You want them to continue investing as long as they see a great opportunity on the horizon.
该领域的增长前景巨大。几乎无法估量这类技术的潜在增长前景有多大。
The growth prospects in this sector are significant. It is almost impossible to estimate just how huge the potential growth prospects are for this type of technology.
然而，看到其部分利润率改善令人鼓舞。例如，该公司在最近一个季度录得 36% 的毛利率，好于管理层预测的 33%。你还可以看看投入资本回报率，已显著改善至 -7.5%，高于 2022 年的 -40%。
However, it is encouraging to see some of its profit margins improving. For example, the company recorded a gross profit margin of 36% in its most recent quarter, which was better than the 33% that the management team had predicted . You can also look at the returns on invested capital, which have improved significantly to -7.5%, up from -40% in 2022.
因此，尽管该公司距离无需向投资者寻求资本就能实现可持续发展的状态还很远，但它正在取得切实的进展并完成关键里程碑，这使投资者对其未来充满信心。
So, although it is still far from being a sustainable company without needing to ask for capital from investors, it is making tangible improvements and completing key milestones, which gives investors confidence in its future.
对于像 Rocket Lab 这样的公司，实现里程碑目标极为重要；因为每次实现目标，投资者信心就会增强，从而允许他们以更低的资本成本提供融资。
For a company like Rocket Lab, achieving milestone goals is extremely important; Because every time it achieves a goal, investor confidence increases , allowing them to provide financing at a lower cost of capital.
现在，该公司绝未陷入绝境。公司手头约有 24 亿美元现金，因此即使其净利润继续以我们最近几个季度所见的速度流失现金，它也有足够的现金流支撑未来几个季度，以达成这些目标。
Now, the company is by no means in a desperate situation . The company has approximately $2.4 billion in cash on hand, so even if it continues to lose cash in its net income at the level we have seen in recent quarters. It has enough cash flow for several quarters to come to enable it to reach these goals.
当然，在 2026 年第四季度从发射台进入 Neutron 火箭的发射阶段将是向前迈出的一大步，也是降低资本成本的又一重要步骤。
Certainly, reaching the launch stage of the "Neutron" rocket from the launch pad in the fourth quarter of 2026 will be a big step forward, and another important step towards reducing the cost of capital.
看看市场价格又是另一回事，不是吗？在 SpaceX 以股市历史上最受欢迎的 IPO 进入市场时，太空领域股票曾充满狂热和兴奋，我们看到太空公司利用了那些顺风。
Looking at the market price was another story, wasn't it? There was a lot of euphoria and excitement surrounding space sector stocks at the time when SpaceX was entering the market in the most popular IPO in stock market history, and we saw space companies take advantage of those positive winds.
特别是 Rocket Lab 的股票，从每股约 57 美元跃升至 150 美元，在两个月内几乎翻了三倍。此后，那种热情可以说已经消退，股票动能下降，现在交易价格接近炒作和热情之前的水平。目前约为每股 60 美元。
Rocket Lab's stock, in particular, saw a jump from about $57 per share to $150 per share, nearly tripling its price in two months. Since then, that enthusiasm has evaporated, so to speak, and the momentum of stocks has declined, and they are now trading at levels close to what they were before that hype and enthusiasm. It is now at around $60 per share .
当然，如果你记得，我曾制作多个视频警告投资者不要被媒体炒作所裹挟，不仅针对 Rocket Lab，也针对 SpaceX。我曾警告投资者避开这种炒作和狂热；因为它永远不会结束——好吧，我不应该说永远不会结束，但当投资者被炒作、狂热和所有兴奋冲昏头脑时，结果很少对投资者有利。
Of course, if you recall, I made several videos warning investors against being swept away by media hype, not only regarding Rocket Lab, but also regarding SpaceX . I have warned investors to avoid this hype and euphoria; Because it never ends—well, I shouldn't say it never ends , but it rarely ends well for investors when they get carried away by the hype, the euphoria, and all that excitement.
看看最近几年。你甚至不必像我一样研究数百年的历史，不是吗？我并不是说我活了几百年，但我研究过数百年的市场历史，当你被噪音、狂热和兴奋冲昏头脑时，结果很少对投资者有利。
Just look at recent years. You don't even have to study history for hundreds of years like me, do you? I don't mean to imply that I've lived for hundreds of years, but I've studied the history of markets going back hundreds of years, and when you get carried away by the noise, euphoria, and excitement, it rarely ends well for investors.
但你不需要看得太远，不是吗？只看过去七年，对吧？仅回溯到 2019 年。看看 meme 股票热潮、非同质化代币（NFT）热潮，以及部分加密货币热潮。并非所有这些实验都以糟糕的结局告终，或者说其中许多对投资者来说结局不佳。
因此，每当你看到这种噪音和狂热时，这都是需要避免的。这是另一个例子。我希望你看过我的一些视频，避开了许多这类灾难。
But you don't have to look too far , do you? Just look at the past seven years, right? Going back to 2019 only. Look at the meme stock craze, the non- fungible token (NFT) craze , and some of the cryptocurrency craze . Not all of those experiments ended, or rather many of them did not end well for investors. Therefore, this is something to avoid whenever you see this kind of noise and euphoria. This was another example of that. I hope you have watched some of my videos and avoided many of these disasters.
今年该股已下跌10%。它经历了起伏，但目前下跌了10%。评级已回到所有炒作和兴奋之前的水平。目前其远期市销率为27倍，大致与SpaceX炒作和兴奋将该股推高至65倍市销率之前的水平相当。
For the year, the stock has fallen by 10%. It has seen ups and downs, but at the moment it is down 10%. Ratings have returned to the levels they were at before all the hype and excitement. It is currently trading at a forward price-to-sales multiple of 27, which is roughly the same level it was at before the hype and excitement surrounding SpaceX drove the stock to a price- to-sales multiple of 65.
但在这个估值水平，高风险投资者买入Rocket Lab的股票是否合理？我还想用我的贴现现金流模型来审视估值，根据该模型，在每股62美元的价格下，股价仍远高于我估计的22美元公允价值。
对于像Rocket Lab这样极难估值的股票，我分配了更大的安全边际，即使应用了更大的安全边际，该股在这些水平上似乎仍被高估。
But at this valuation, does it make sense for high- risk investors to get in and buy Rocket Lab stock? Well, I also wanted to look at the valuation using my discounted cash flow model, and according to it, at $62 per share, the price is still much higher than my fair value estimate of $22. Now, for a stock like Rocket Lab, which is extremely difficult to value, I'm allocating a larger margin of safety, and even with a larger margin of safety applied, the stock still seems overvalued at these levels.
这是一家非常令人兴奋的公司，也是世界上最具创新性的公司之一，但如果你是高风险投资者并考虑进入，我建议等待更好的机会。
It's a very exciting company, and one of the most innovative in the world, but if you're a high- risk investor and thinking about getting in, I'd advise waiting for a better opportunity.
我会等待更好的价格，还有其他高风险高回报的股票比Rocket Lab更值得持有。因此，今天我重申对该公司的“持有”评级，并指出在这一类别中——我指的是高风险高回报股票，不仅限于航天领域，而是总体上——可能有更好的股票我更愿意持有而非Rocket Lab。
I will wait for a better price, and there are other high- risk-reward stocks that are better to own than Rocket Lab. So today I will reiterate my “ hold” rating of the company, noting that there may be better stocks in this category—and by category I mean high-risk, high-reward stocks, not just in the space sector, but in general— that I would prefer to own instead of Rocket Lab.
这个频道对 $RKLB 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。