Rambus 基本面稳健（负债低、增长稳定），但资本回报率偏弱、估值偏高，相较同业上行空间有限。
逐段跳播
第三，内存管道。Rambus，股票代码 RMBBS。一颗强大的 AI 芯片如果卡在等待数据到达上，就毫无用处。Rambus 设计的就是在芯片与其内存之间以极快速度搬运数据的专用管道。
随着 AI 越来越饥渴，这种数据拥堵会变得更严重。而 Rambus 帮助解决它。那么，风险是什么？这项技术不断变化。错过下一个重大设计，你就可能出局。
Third, the memory [snorts] plumbing. Rambus, ticker RMBBS. A powerful AI chip is useless if it's stuck waiting for data to arrive. Rambus designs the specialized plumbing that moves data between the chip and its memory incredibly fast.
As AI gets hungrier, that data traffic jam gets worse. And Rambus helps solve it. So, what's the risk? This technology changes constantly. Miss the next big design and you can lose out.
最后，Rambus，我们的内存公司。这是拼图中完全不同的一块。它规模较小，但增长相当不错，营收增长 20%，创下纪录。
And finally, Rambus, our memory company. A totally different piece of the puzzle. It's smaller, but growing quite nicely with revenue up 20% to a record.
各位，现在它是一家规模较小的公司，但仍在稳健良好地增长。很多人喜欢它的商业模式。它通过两种不同的方式赚钱：销售实际芯片，以及就其设计收取版税，就像一个反复收费的收费站。
Now, guys, it's a smaller company, but it's still growing nice and steady. And a lot of people love its business model. It makes money two different ways, selling actual chips and collecting royalties on its designs like a toll booth that gets paid over and over again.
它的产品销售增长更快，上升了 22%。它刚刚推出了有史以来最快的、专为 AI 服务器打造的内存芯片。问题在于：它能否存活取决于能否赢得每一代新技术。
Its product sales grew even faster, up 22%. And it just launched its fastest ever memory chip built for AI servers. The catch, it lives or dies by winning each new generation of technology.
那么，我们来看看数字怎么说。各位，它是一家 97 亿美元的公司。看看这个。企业价值更低，这意味着他们手上的现金多于债务。这就是我喜欢这类生意的地方：即使生意做得没那么好，只要他们管理好现金，也不会有无法承受的巨额债务。
So, let's see what the numbers say. So, guys, it's a $9.7 billion company. Look at this. A lower enterprise value. That means they have more cash on hand than debt. That's what I love about this kind of business that even if the business doesn't do as well, they're not going to have mountains of debt that they can't overcome as long as they manage their cash well.
一年自由现金流 3 亿美元。5 年自由现金流 230。所以，我们没有看到像其他公司那样的大爆发，但我们确实看到资本回报率在改善。过去五年每年 8.6%，去年 13.5%。
One year free cash flow, $300 million. 5year free cash flow 230. So, we're not seeing quite the big explosion like the other companies had, but we are seeing returns on capital getting better. 8.6% a year for the last five, 13.5% last year.
各位，看看这个营收增长。稳定得多。过去 10 年每年 9.7%，过去五年 22%，过去 3 年每年 17.3%。
And look at this revenue growth, guys. A lot more consistent. 9.7% a year for the last 10, 22% for the last five, 17.3% a year for the last 3 years.
再看看这些利润率。这就是让我有点困惑的地方。过去 10 年是 13%，过去一年和五年是 31%。好消息是，收购非常少，过去 5 年只有 700 万，而且仍然实现了 22.5% 的营收增长。
And look at these margins. This is what kind of confuses me. 13% for the last 10, 31% for the last one and five years. Now, the good news is very little in acquisitions, only seven million over the last 5 years, and still saw 22.5% revenue growth.
我们来看看他们的八大支柱。好，市盈率贵，自由现金流价格贵，还有过去五年那个偏低的资本回报率。除此之外，看看这个债务。0.2%，2。我是说，这根本不算什么。只要他们能保持下去，把债务保持在低位，并维持现金为正的生意，那么即使 AI 出现回落，他们撑不下去的可能性也非常小。这就是我喜欢它的地方。
Let's check out their eight pillars. All right, expensive PE, expensive price of free cash flow, and that low return on capital for the last five years. So, other than that, look at this debt.
02% 2. I mean, it's nothing. I as long as they can keep this going, keep that debt low, and stay a cash positive business, it is very hard that even if there's a pullback in AI, that they won't be around still. That's what I like about this.
我们看看分析师怎么想。没那么性感。每股 3 美元将涨到 480，基本上全在未来两年内实现。所以，未来三年仍有 60% 的增长。然后营收从 8.3 亿增长到 13 亿。
Let's see what analysts think. Not as sexy. $3 a share going to 480 basically all of it in the next two years. So, still 60% growth over the next three years. And then revenue growing from 830 million to 1.3 billion.
各位，这一个是以溢价出售的，但它并不具备其他公司那样的增长故事潜力。那么，让我们打开股票分析工具。再做一次10年假设。营收增长就设4%、9%和14%。接下来是利润率。我在这里喜欢的一点是，他们10年的利润率远低于自由现金流，所以自由现金流更高。
因此，我们将重点关注自由现金流，设29%、32%和35%。而他们的自由现金流，我们采用36，不，37、40和43%。
So guys, this one's selling for a premium, but it doesn't have the same growth story potential that the other companies have. So let's pull in our stock analyzer tool. Let's do the 10-year assumption again.
Let's do four, 9, and 14%. Revenue growth. Now profit margin. What I like here is their 10-year profit margin is a lot lower than their free cash flow. So free cash flow is higher.
So, we're going to focus on the free cash flow 29, 32, and 35. And their free cash flow, we're going to go with 36, no, 37, 40, and 43%.
接下来，市盈率和自由现金流价格倍数该给多少？各位，这正是我的担忧所在。看看他们5年和10年的资本回报率，并不太好。所以，它需要更低的估值倍数。我打算在这里给出13、16和19。
没错，它身处AI这个了不起的领域，但看起来这会是时好时坏的事情，而且这些资本回报率有点糟糕。所以我看待它时会想，即便它表现不错，投入这门生意的钱依然没有获得良好的回报。这对投资者来说不是好事。事实上，13、16、19可能还太高了。
Next, what PE and price of free cash flow? Well, here's my concern, guys. Look at their five and 10 year returns on capital. Not very good. So, it needs a lower multiple. I'm going to sit here and show 13, 16, and 19.
Yes, it's in this awesome space of AI, but it seems like it's going to be a hit or miss thing and these returns on capital are kind of poopy. So, I look at it going, well, even if it does well, it's still not getting good returns on the money invest in the business.
That's not a good thing for investors. In fact, 13, 16, 19 might actually be too high.
各位，我给出的低价区间是30到38，高价区间是95到115，中间价区间是53到66。所以，这与当前价格相差不远，但话说回来，这是一家你必须在对AI的判断上正确、这家公司才真正说得通的企业。
Guys, I have a low price of 30 to 38, high price of 95 to 115, and a middle price of 53 to 66. So, it's not far off from the current price, but again, this is a company that has to be you have to be right on AI in order for this thing to make a lot of sense.
这个频道对 $RMBS 的历次判断
Everything Money 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。