ROL 从历史角度看估值便宜，但可能仅处于合理价值；大型科技股提供更好的机会成本。
逐段跳播
最后，第五只股票是 Rollins，股票代码 ROL，这是给核心粉丝、社区里的人看的，因为正是他们想看这只股票。你可以看到这里出现了急剧下跌。最近在周五触及 52 周低点。过去 5 年下跌 17%，今年下跌 48%。
Now, finally, stock number five, we have Rollins, ticker symbol ROL, and this is for the core fans, the people in the community, because they were the ones that wanted to see this stock.
And you can see they had a sharp drop-off here. Recently hit 52-week low on Friday. It's down 17% over the past 5 years and 48% this year.
但从长期来看，它在市场上一直表现优异。把股息再投资，如果回到 1980 年代，它的复合年增长率为 13%，即便去年表现很糟糕。
But in the long run, this has been a great performer in the market. With dividends reinvested, if you go back to the 1980s, it's growing at 13% CAGR, even with this last year being terrible.
我并不在这个领域，所以我不一定算是 Rollins 的拥趸。但基本上，它是一家综合性的害虫防治公司。他们拥有一批区域性害虫防治公司，是美国最大的一家。他们拥有的数量最多。几十年来，这一直是一门很好的生意。
Now, I'm not in this space, so I'm not necessarily a Rollins guy. But basically, they are a conglomerate pest control company. So, they own a bunch of regional pest control companies, and they are the biggest one in the US.
They own the most of them. And it's been a great business over the decades.
这里你可以看到他们的股息。它长期以来持续上升，期间还穿插着这些特别股息，而且他们一直在逐步提高基础季度股息。你可以看到过去 10 年股息上涨了 310%。这是 15.17% 的复合年增长率，而且期间还有这些特别股息。
Here you can see their dividend. It's consistently gone up over time, and they sprinkle in these special dividends along the way, and they've been raising the base quarterly dividend over time.
You can see over the past 10 years the dividends up 310%. That's a 15.17% CAGR, and they had these special dividends along the way.
目前的股息率处于历史高位。是过去 10 年中的巨大异常值。它甚至比包含所有这些特别股息的股息率还要高。
It's a historically high dividend yield right now. Massive outlier over the past 10 years. It's even higher than the yields with all of those special dividends.
我会说他们没有股息被削减的风险。过去 12 个月自由现金流派息率为 55%，盈利派息率为 64%。这里你可以看到每股收益。过去 25 年它一直在持续增长。过去 10 年每股收益上涨了 241%。
复合年增长率为 13.4%。过去 5 年上涨了 75%。这是 12.65% 的复合年增长率，而且过去 3 年它一直在增长。过去 12 个月上涨了 11.5%。
I would say they're not at risk of a dividend cut. It's 55% free cash flow payout ratio over the trailing 12 months, 64% earnings payout ratio. Here you can see earnings per share.
It's been a consistent grower over the past 25 years. Earnings per share is up 241% over the past 10 years. 13.4% compound annual growth rate. It's up 75% over the past 5 years.
That's a 12.65% CAGR, and it's kept growing over the past 3 years. Trailing 12 months they're up 11.5%.
他们在最新的财报中确实报告了不及预期。比预期低了 4.7%，而公司目前的市盈率处于历史低位，过去 12 个月市盈率为 27.3。这是过去 10 年来的最低水平，
Now, they did report a miss on their latest earnings report. It's down 4.7% from expectations, and the company's P/E ratio right now is historically cheap at a 27.3 trailing 12-month P/E ratio.
This is the lowest it's been over the past 10 years,
但我觉得 Rollins 股票一直以来的估值倍数实际上令人意外。10 年市盈率中位数为 53。即便过去 5 年，中位数也是 51.49。说实话，直觉上这对我来说不太说得通，而这个 27.3，是的，它是史上最便宜的，但我不认为这一定就是个便宜货。他们每年增长大约 10% 到 15%。
but I find this actually be surprising the multiple that Rollins stock has traded at. A 53 10-year median P/E ratio. Even over the past 5 years the median's 51.49. Intuitively that doesn't make much sense to me, to be honest, and this 27.3, yes, it's the cheapest ever been, but I don't think it's like a steal necessarily at that. They're growing like 10 to 15% a year.
也许我需要对其业务做更多研究，才能理解为什么他们这么多年来能获得那样的溢价倍数。
Maybe I need to do some more research into their business to understand why they got that premium multiple for all those years.
自由现金流创造能力真的很好。过去 10 年上涨了 258%。复合年增长率为 14%。过去 5 年上涨了 68%。不过最近几个季度自由现金流开始下降。
The free cash flow generations are really good. It's up 258% over the past 10 years. 14% compound annual growth rate. It's up 68% over the past 5 years. Although it is starting to decline in recent quarters for free cash flow.
总体而言，基于财务数据或其他方面，我不认为他们有股息被削减的风险。这项业务并没有在走向死亡或类似的情况。分析师仍预计每股收益将继续增长。2026 年为 5%，之后几年为 10%。
Overall, based on the financials or anything, I don't think they're at risk of a dividend cut. The business isn't dying or anything like that. Analysts are still expecting continued higher earnings per share growth. 5% 2026, and then 10% in the years after.
而且，与历史估值倍数相比，这只股票目前确实显得便宜。无论你看什么，每股收益、股息还是自由现金流。当我看到这个时，我唯一会想到的就是，是的，与它历史上的交易估值相比，它确实便宜，但它在过去真的配得上那样的溢价吗？也许它现在只是更接近合理价值。
And again, compared to the historic multiples, the stock does look cheap right now. No matter what you look at, earnings per share, dividend, free cash flow. And when I'm looking at this, the only thing that I'm necessarily like thinking about is that yeah, it's cheap compared to how it's historically traded, but did it really deserve that premium in the past? Maybe it's just closer to fair value right now.
这并不算差。有时候，如果一家公司质地优良，在合理价值买入股票是非常好的操作。它会在长期继续增长。但我的意思是，有一些大型科技公司以更低的估值倍数交易。它们的增长速度要快得多。我总是会做那种心理上的机会成本比较，就是你可以把钱投在这里，也可以把钱投在那里。
Which that's not bad. Sometimes buying a stock when it's at fair value is a very good move if it's a quality company. It's going to continue growing in the long run. But I mean, there are big tech companies trading at cheaper multiple.
They are growing way faster. And I always do that mental opportunity cost of like you could put your money in this or you could put your money in that.
所以我不知道。这只是我个人的看法，我并不是做害虫防治这一行的。我对此没有任何洞见。如果它继续变得更便宜，也许我可以做些研究。也许做一期专门的视频。
So I don't know. That's just me as I I'm not in the pest control business. I don't have any insight into this. Perhaps I could do some research if it keeps getting cheaper. Maybe do a dedicated video.
这个频道对 $ROL 的历次判断
Dividend Data 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。