ROST 是一项看空交易,因卖方活动持续,且相对 TJX 等同业表现疲弱。
逐段跳播
你这里的首选是 Ross Stores。该股当日小幅走低,但年初至今表现良好,上涨了 25%。从盈利来看,它刚刚经历了一段强劲的表现,但我从你笔记里的内容可以看出,你今天给我们带来了三只小熊,找不到金发姑娘。那么,请讲讲你是如何看待 Ross 的。
You've got Ross Stores as your first pick here. They're slightly lower on the session, but year-to- date performing well. They're up 25%. uh they're coming off a strong performance in terms of their earnings, but I know from looking across your notes that you've brought us three little bears today. There's no Goldilocks to be found. So, uh take us through how you're looking at Ross.
我选择 Ross Stores 的原因之一是,它恰好正处于某种卖方活动之中。该股最近刚从 257 的高点回落,现在跌到了 227 左右的位置。
So, one of the reasons I selected raw stores is this just happens to be, you know, in the midst, if you will, of some sellside activity. The underlying just recently came off of a high of 257. It's now down to like the 227 kind of handle.
我只是觉得,这恰好是该板块内最具机会主义的一笔交易。这将是一个看空头寸,因为正如我所说,看到一些卖方活动,我现在要顺势而为。但它受到的打击远没有 TJ Maxx 或像 Dick's Sporting Goods 那样严重。
And I just think that this happens to be okay, the most opportunistic trade within the particular sector. And that is going to be a bearish position because as I said, I'm going to jump on trend right now with seeing some sellside activity. But it's not getting hit nearly as hard as if you will the TJ Maxx or like a Dick Sporting Goods.
尽管如此,我在 Ross 上选择 11 月 20 日到期。11 月 20 日。我将买入 220 看跌期权,并卖出 210 看跌期权与之相对。所以,这是一个不错的、宽度为 10 美元的看跌价差,以 3.20 美元的净支出完成。
我给了自己充足的时间,70 天,让卖方活动在这里持续。而正如我所说,这种卖方活动已经开始。我们从 257 跌到 227。如果这一趋势继续,我们就会正好处在 11 月到期时我们需要的位置。
Nevertheless, I'm going out to the Nove 20th expiration here in Ross. Nove 20. I'm going to be buying the 220 puts and selling the 210 puts against it. So, it's a nice big $10 wide put spread done for a $3.20 debit. And I've given myself all kinds of time. 70 days for there's some sellside activity to uh to persist here. Uh and that sellside activity, as I said, it's already begun. We're 257 to 227. Um if this uh trend continues, you know, we'll be uh we'll be right where we need to be for uh for that November expiration.
我的意思是,Ross 在浅蓝色这条线上明显跑赢 TJX,后者是绿色那条线,已经跌到我们图表的底部附近。但如果我们看一下 Ross,这里就是 Don 提到的 257 附近的那些高点。
但我们也可以看到,从那里开始形成了一个向下倾斜的通道形态。我们可以看到,我们处在两条白线之间。我们的上轨线向下倾斜。把它复制一下,放到低点上方。你可以据此尝试预测潜在的支撑位。
当然,这不会每次都奏效,只是一个大致指引。我们可以看到这里 218 附近有一个相对低点,以及在 4 月那次向上盈利缺口之后出现的重复低点,大约在 207 附近。与此同时,在上方,一个相对低点变成了 232 附近的顶部。
另一个相对高点大约在 247 附近也很突出。如果我们接下来看移动平均线,可以看到价格跌破了其中三条,也就是我们跟踪的指数移动平均线。我们的 5 日线,深蓝色那条,是最近的一条。
它位于 22926。如果我们确实向上突破通道形态,我们的 21 日和 63 日均线在 234 附近形成汇合。RSI 正在走低,我们处于 50 中位线下方。我们也正处于突破绿色趋势线的边缘。
所以如果你持更看空的观点,就关注这一点发生,以及跌破 30 水平以进一步看空。我们可以看到,我们的成交量分布研究显示,在约 223 到 236 之间有一个节点。我们基本上正好处在我们的控制点,也就是最密集的交易区域,它略低于 228。
下方还有一个节点,209 到 217。上方还有一个,249 到 255。因此,我们有幸拥有一些非常清晰的密集交易区域,如果未来几天出现强劲的方向性走势,可以据此寻找潜在的支撑或阻力。
I mean, Ross the clear outperformer in the light blue here against TJX, which is the green and and down near the bottom of our chart. But so, if we do look at Ross, here's those highs near 257 Don mentioned here. But we can also see from there a downward sloping channel type shape has developed. We can see then uh we're between those two white lines here. Our our top line uh pointing downward. Just duplicate it. Put it across the lows. You can try to project potential support based on that. Certainly not going to work every time. Just a general guideline here. We can see a relative low here near 218 and as well as a repeated low uh after the earnings gap that we saw to the upside back in April here near 207. Meanwhile, to the upside, a relative low became a ceiling here near 232. Another relative high near about 247 stands out as well. If we were to look at our moving averages next, we can see that prices slip below three of them. our exponential moving averages that we follow here. Our 5day and dark blue is the closest. Uh 22926 is where that one comes in. If we did push out to uh above our channel type shape, we have a confluence between our 21 and 63 day near about 234. RSI is moving lower here. We are below the 50 midline. We are on the verge of breaking through our green trend line as well. So look for that to happen if you have more of a bearish outlook as well as a slip below that 30 level for further bearishness. We can see our volume profile study shows that we have a node here between about 223 to 236. We are basically right on our our point of control, our heaviest trading area of all that comes in just below 228. Another node down here 209 to 217. Another one to the upside 249 to 255. So we have the luxury of some very clearly defined areas of heavy trading to look for potential support or resistance if we do get a strong directional move in the coming days.
在你刚才强调的那波上涨之后,Ross Stores 已经回落了超过 11%,Don。
We've had more than 11% pullback in Ross stores after that runup that you just highlighted there, Don.
他说在等什么
这个频道对 $ROST 的历次判断
Schwab Network 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。