SBUX 的预期回报偏低（5-6%）且风险偏高，在当前价格下并不具吸引力。
逐段跳播
我们已经好几年没有讨论过星巴克的股票了，而在过去几年里，这只股票并没有发生什么大的变化。现在我们必须看看星巴克是否会回到它曾经的样子，一台累积增长的机器。
We haven't discussed Starbucks stock for a few years, and over the past few years , not much has happened to the stock. Now we have to see if Starbucks will return to what it once was, a machine of cumulative growth.
因为当你回顾过去五年时，你会发现20%的下跌，以及在涨跌之间不断的波动。不过，市值为1080亿，市盈率为54，股息率为2.61%。
Because when you look at the past five years, you will find a 20% decline, and constant fluctuations between ups and downs. However, the market capitalization is 108 billion, the price-to- earnings ratio is 54, and the dividend yield is 2.61%.
那么，让我们来讨论星巴克新任CEO在两年后回归、能让我们很好地了解当前处境的长期财务数据、华尔街的看法、内在价值的计算，以及了解你在投资方格中处于什么位置，然后你可以自己决定星巴克是否适合你投资。
So, let's discuss the return of Starbucks' new CEO after two years, the long-term financial data that will give us a good indication of our current situation, the view of Wall Street, the calculation of intrinsic value, and knowing where you fall in the investment square, and then you can make your own decision as to whether Starbucks is a suitable investment for you.
回到星巴克，我记得几年前去过它的一家门店，那地方真的很脏。那不是个好地方，这是他们需要改变的地方。如果他对星巴克做到这一点，我认为所有股东都会非常高兴。
Going back to Starbucks, I remember going to one of its branches a few years ago and the place was really dirty. It wasn't a good place and that's something they need to change.
If he does that with Starbucks, I think all the shareholders will be very happy.
同店销售在过去几个季度已开始改善。预测显示同店增长率为6%。净收入略有增长。他们正在出售在中国的业务，并从中获得了一些流动性。
Sales at similar stores have started to improve over the past few quarters . Forecasts indicate a 6% growth rate in similar stores. Net revenue is growing slightly. They are selling their operations in China, and have obtained some liquidity from there.
营业利润率正在改善，从而带动每股收益改善，尤其是在上一季度。目标是回到星巴克曾经的样子，回到让它成为今天这个品牌的东西。
Operating margins are improving, leading to improved earnings per share, especially in the last quarter. The goal is to return to what Starbucks was and what made it the brand it is today.
但也存在问题：工会投诉、价格、人员配备水平，以及导致星巴克门店脏乱（至少在欧洲）的艰难环境，造成顾客数量减少、收入减少，以及随之而来的一切。
But there are also problems: union complaints, prices, staffing levels, and the difficult environment that has led to dirty Starbucks branches, at least in Europe, resulting in a decrease in the number of customers, a decrease in revenue, and all that entails.
他们出售了中国业务60%的股份，所以现在计算方式会有所不同，它一直在实现累积增长，尤其是在过去15到20年里。
They sold 60% of their stake in China, so it will be calculated differently now, It has been achieving cumulative growth, especially in the last 15 to 20 years.
如果我们看收入，会发现惊人的增长率，而且也是有利润的增长。收入，可以说，增长了六倍。从这些平均值到当前潜在利润，可以说，利润增长到了八倍。
If we look at the revenues, we will find an amazing growth rate, and profitable growth as well. Revenues, let's say, have increased sixfold. The profits from these averages to current potential profits, let's say, have multiplied eightfold.
每股也许略多一点，因为他们进行了一些股票回购。然而，在这些亮眼的利润率之后，我们看到2025年利润率下滑，毛利率萎缩。
For each share, perhaps a little more because they did some share buybacks. However, after these impressive margins, we saw 2025 with declining margins and shrinking gross profit margins.
正常年份的净利润约为40亿。而在过去十二个月里，它已经达到20亿。但在上一个季度——这是一张季度图表——利润率已经回到其历史水平，这可能带来星巴克盈利能力的改善。
Net income was around 4 billion in normal years. Now, in the past twelve months, it has reached 2 billion, but in the last quarter, and this is a quarterly chart, profit margins have returned to their historical levels, which could lead to an improvement in Starbucks' profitability.
40亿乘以1等于每年40亿，如果从这个角度看，情况就不同了。市盈率回到了二十几倍，一切都很正常。现在，就长期债务而言，他们在2018年前后决定使用财务工程，即借款和股票回购。
4 billion times 1 equals 4 billion annually, which changes the picture if you look at it from this perspective. The price-to-earnings ratio is back in the twenties, and everything is normal.
Now, with regard to long-term debt, they decided around 2018 to use financial engineering, borrowing, and share buybacks.
有股息派发，但他们进行了两次大规模回购，这在2018至2019年推高了股价，但他们的大部分回购都是在高股价时执行的。
There are dividend payouts, but they made two large buybacks, which drove the stock up in 2018-2019, but they executed most of the buybacks at high stock prices.
他们花了250亿，把市值削减了20%，降至1000亿。这里面没有什么大的收获。此外，资产负债表在曾经完全没有债务之后，如今已高度负债。
They spent 25 billion, and reduced the market value by 20% to 100 billion. There are no big wins there. Furthermore, the balance sheet is now highly indebted after having been completely debt-free.
因此，我完全不赞成财务工程。你确实需要对自己所做的事保持谨慎。这种局面并不令华尔街分析师满意。当你看到大多数人都在说“持有”时，在华尔街，持有意味着“卖出”。“强烈卖出”意味着“做空”。
“强烈买入”只代表12。因此，分析师中存在一种疲弱。
Therefore, I am not at all a fan of financial engineering. You really need to be careful about what you do . This situation is not pleasing to Wall Street analysts. When you see most people saying "hold," holding on Wall Street means "sell."
" Strong selling" means " short selling". " Strong buying" represents only 12. Therefore, there is a weakness among analysts.
分析师不喜欢一只股票停滞5年。他们当时在推荐它，然后情况变得更糟，而且几乎没有改善，因为你可以看到他们只是在跟随股价。
Analysts don't like a stock to remain stagnant for 5 years. They were promoting it and then things got worse, and there is little improvement as you can see that they are only following the stock price.
但他们很乐观，尤其是对盈利，预计未来增长20%，到2028年达到每股3，甚至可能4，并瞄准25倍的市盈率。如果我们看星巴克的“投资者日”目标，他们瞄准的是到2028年达到3.45或4。
But they are optimistic, especially about earnings, with 20% future growth, reaching three, and possibly four per share in 2028, and targeting a price-to- earnings ratio of 25.
If we look at Starbucks' "Investor Day" targets, they are aiming for 3.45 or 4 by 2028.
投资叙事是：如果星巴克真的复苏，如果他们能够以盈利的方式增加门店数量并实现盈利增长，那么它可能是一个有意思的品牌。
The investment narrative is: if Starbucks really comes back, and if they can profitably increase the number of stores and grow profitably, then it could be an interesting brand.
这里我有星巴克。股息被作为一项入选标准，因为它是一家派息公司，我们希望它会成为一家派息成长型公司。
And here I have Starbucks. Dividends were taken as an entry criterion because it is a dividend-paying company and we hope it will be a dividend-paying growth company .
如果我设定5%的股息增长率，我会预期10%的折现率和10%的较低收益率。最终的倍数是25，这意味着预期股息率为4%。内在价值仍与当前股价相距甚远。
If I set a dividend growth rate of 5%, I would expect a discount rate of 10%, and a lower yield of 10%. The ultimate multiplier is 25, which means an expected dividend yield of 4%.
The intrinsic value is still far from the current share price .
要获得10%的回报，当前价格是多少？也许不是10%，但也许市场满足于6%。那么，我们给未来4%的股息率、6%的折现率定价，如此等等，就得出结果。
What is the current price for a 10% return ? Well, maybe not 10%, but maybe the market is satisfied with 6%. Then, we price a future dividend yield of 4%, a discount rate of 6%, and so on we arrive at the result .
因此，以当前价格，你可以预期从星巴克获得约6%的长期回报。当然，如果股息率为3%，而市场满足于这个百分比，那么在7%的股息增长率下，以当前价格我们面对的已经是8%的预期收益率。
Therefore, you can expect a long-term return of around 6% from Starbucks at current prices. Of course, if the dividend yield is 3% and the market is satisfied with this percentage, then we are already facing an expected yield of 8% at current prices with dividend growth rates of 7%.
在最坏的情况下，股息率为5%——这并非不可能——而增长只有4%，该股需要下跌50%。
In the worst-case scenario , with a dividend yield of 5 %, which is not impossible, and growth of only 4%, the stock needs to fall by 50%.
她会说：“不，Sven，对一个这种品质的品牌来说，5%太离谱了。”所以，说到星巴克，是的，一切都很好，但回报低、风险高。
She would say, "No, Sven , 5% is insane for a brand of this quality." So, when it comes to Starbucks, yes, everything is great, but the return is low and the risk is high.
我把它放在这里，未来5%到6%的潜在回报，同时伴随着所需回报率上升的高风险，而这会导致你的实际回报下降。
I put it here, a potential return of 5 to 6% in the future with a high risk of the required return increasing , which will result in a decrease in your actual return.
这个频道对 $SBUX 的历次判断
Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。