SE基本面强劲(便宜、数据出色、抽佣率上升),但风险/波动性高;并非最高信念的买入。
逐段跳播
最后但同样重要的是,我们来看看 C Limited,这家公司不久前,对吧?我觉得我可能几个月前就向你推荐过,但肯定不是很久以前。有趣的是,我想这里大多数人可能都知道。我是 Mac Libra 的忠实粉丝,或者我们都是。
以及它背后的商业模式。我认为 Shopee 在某种程度上,我知道这总是被简化,他们试图构建同样的东西。它还没有达到那个规模,而且这也取决于你所在的市场。显然他们在巴西与 Mac Libra 竞争,但他们主要在东南亚,而且他们也有更多的市场份额。
All right, last but not least, um, we got C Limited, which is a company that's not too long ago, right? I felt like I pitched that to you maybe a couple of months ago, but definitely not too long ago. Um, it's interesting. I mean, probably most people here know that. Um, I'm a big fan of Mac Libra or we both are. Um, and the business model behind it. I think Shopppee to some extent and I know it's always simplified. Um, they try to build the same thing. Um, it's not yet there at the scale and it also depends on which market you are in. Obviously they have um they compete with Mad Libra in Brazil but they're mainly in Southeast Asia and but they have a lot more market share too.
所以对我们来说有点难以排名,因为如果你只看他们的数字,他们增长很多。这相当令人印象深刻。这里我只有 Shopee 和 Money。Shopee 基本上是他们的市场,Money 是他们的金融科技部门,同样还没有达到例如 Macato Pag 对 Mac Libé 的水平。他们增长很快。
Um so it's a bit difficult for us to rank here because if you just look at their numbers um they're growing a lot. Um it's pretty imposs impressive. Um here I only have Shopee and Money. Shopee is basically their marketplace. Um money is their fintech arm which again is not yet at the level that for for example Macato Pag is um for Mac Libé. They're growing fast.
C Limited 还没有做到这一点,因为在某种程度上它还没有那么重要,它是业务中较小的一部分。所以,我假设当时机成熟时他们会给你更多指标。但有些事情我只是不知道,我希望有更多洞察。
例如,不良贷款(NPL),这是这些支付业务最重要的指标之一,如果你看,它们比 C Limited 高出大约七倍,部分原因是他们的贷款规模小得多,还款时间表也不同。例如,他们只给你大约 10 美元的贷款,然后如果你用他们的钱包支付,比如下次你拿到工资或下次付款时,他们立即收回现金。
所以通过这种结构,你很可能偿还贷款,而 MacB 曾经也是如此,但后来他们推出了新贷款。这意味着贷款规模更大。贷款不仅针对接下来的 12 周,而是接下来的 12 个月。所有这些都从结构上增加了某些贷款违约的可能性。
所以你不能仅仅比较这些数字就说一个业务比另一个风险更高。
Um, C Limited is not yet doing that to some extent because it's not yet that important. Um, it's a smaller part of the business. So, I would assume they will give you more metrics um, when the time comes. But some things are just I don't know I I would like to have more insight. So for example the NPLs which is uh the non-performing loans um one of the most important metrics um for these payment operations if you look at me they're about seven times higher than than for um C Limited and and part of the reason is that they have significantly smaller loans and the payback schedule is sort of different. So for example, they only give you a loan for about 10 bucks and then if you pay for um with using um using their wallet for example, next time you get um I don't know your salary or next time you pay, they immediately get their cash back. So it just um by the structure that they have very likely that you will pay back the loans whereas it used to be the same for MacB but then they push into new loans. Um that means the loans are are larger. The loans are not only for the next 12 weeks, but they're actually for the next 12 months. And all of that structurally increases the likelihood that some loans will fail. Um so it's not that you can just compare those numbers and say one business is more risky than the other.
而且,对他们的业务有更多洞察会很好,只是为了安全方面。但除此之外,业务增长良好。你看到最重要的指标之一也是市场占有率,它基本上告诉你他们能保留多少 GMV 或总商品价值,这个比例在上升,你可以通过发展广告业务来实现,也可以通过物流业务获得一些额外收入,这正是 C Limited 所做的,或者你只是提高对商家的费用,这不是最可持续的方式。所以通常你会选择广告业务或物流。
Um and yet a bit more insight into their business would would sort of be nice just um for the safety aspect. But apart from that, the business is growing well. Um you see one of the most important metrics too is the take rate um on on the marketplace which basically tells you how much of the GMV or the the gross merchandise value um they can actually keep um is rising and you know you could either do that by having an advertising business that is growing um you could also do it by having a logistics business where you get some extra secret which is actually what C Limited has done or you just increase the fees um for the merchants which is not the most sustainable way to do. So usually you go for the advertising business or you go for logistics.
C Limited 也在朝着同样的方向发展,你会看到占有率随时间上升。这是一家我觉得非常有趣的公司。在我们播客讨论它之后,我买了它,我建立了一个仓位。从那以后,我认为它表现相当不错,尽管它波动很大,所以如果未来我们看到完全不同的价格,我一点也不会感到惊讶。
Um and C Limited is sort of going into the same direction which is where you see the take rate over time um increasing. It's a company that I find very interesting. Um after our podcast on it I bought it. Um I built a position. Um since then I think it has also performed quite well although it's you know pretty volatile so I wouldn't be surprised at all if if we see completely completely different prices again um in the future
对我来说,如果我看它,让我们看看我们从哪里来,我想我是在 80 到 90 左右买的,可能是三月,我们可能是在三月推荐的,我认为大约上涨了 50%,所以我们实际上没有意识到我们抓住了底部,有趣。但同样,这是一只波动的股票,它可能很快变化。
I think to me um if I look at it let's see where we coming from I think bought it like 80 to 90 something like that um wasn't March it could have been in March that we actually pitched it um which is I think it's about 50% so we actually I didn't realize that we caught the bottom um with the pitch interesting. But again, it's a volatile stock. It could change quickly.
看看这里的其他公司,看看 Meta 和 B,我可能会把它放在这里。它只是比这里大多数其他股票风险大得多的赌注。我也可以看到它更低。如果 Shopify 是 D,你可能可以把它放得更低。
Um, looking at the other companies here, looking at Meta on at B, I would probably put it here. Um, it's just a way more risky bet than than most other stocks here. I could also see how it's lower. Um, if Shopify is D, you could probably you could probably put it lower.
是的,我不是特别想拥有它,但它是那种我真的很喜欢关注的公司,如果有的话,是为了帮助我理解我们对 Marcato Libre 的投资。
yeah, I I'm not falling over myself to to own it, but uh it's one of those that I really enjoy keeping an eye on, if anything, to inform uh help inform my understanding of our Marcato Libre investment.
是的,是的。我认为这也是一个缺点,这使得在一个竞争激烈得多的世界部分地区更加困难。我们在亚洲覆盖的许多其他公司也看到了这一点。所以,你离得更远,竞争更激烈。这从来都没有帮助。如果披露有点困难,或者在某种程度上不是那么好,这不会给你的决策增加太多确定性,但我认为总的来说,这是一家便宜的公司,数字很棒。
显然,所有可能来自人工智能和机器人的好处,也适用于 Amazon 和 Mac Libra,也会适用于 Simon。总的来说,这是一个我喜欢的行业,当它被市场更不喜欢或不太受欢迎的时候。
>> Yeah. Yeah. I think it's um it's it's also a bad which kind of makes it more difficult on a part of the world that is way more competitive. We've seen that with a lot of other companies that we covered in in Asia. Um, so you're further away, it's more competitive. Um, that never helps. And if then the disclosures are a bit more difficult, um, or not as good to some extent, um, it doesn't add a lot of certainty, um, to your decision-m, but I think generally it's a it's a cheap company with fantastic numbers. Um, and obviously all the benefits that could come through AI and robotics that also apply to Amazon and Mac Libra would also apply to um, to Simon. It's generally an industry that I that I sort of liked um when it was a bit bit more disliked or a bit less popular um for the general market.
这个频道对 $SE 的历次判断
The Intrinsic Value Podcast 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。