Shopify基本面强劲，长期上行空间大，但价格昂贵且存在竞争风险。
逐段跳播
所以特别是这里，如果你知道一些我们不知道的事情，如果我们没有跟上这家公司的最新情况，请告诉我们。否则，Sean，你有没有直觉，比如说，把 Shopify 放在哪里。我想当我们报道它时，质量很好，价格太高了。
我需要现场检查一下，基本上我们谈论的是股价的走势。年初至今下跌了 7.5%，这不算太多。12 个月上涨了 6%。所以，我们仍然以相当高的估值交易。
Um so especially here chat if you know something that we don't know if we're not up to date with this company uh please tell us otherwise Sean do you have an intuition let's say where to put Shopify. Um I think when we covered it quality is good price was too high. Um I would need to check on the spot basically what we're talking in terms of where the stock has been going. Year to date we're down 7 and a half% that's not too much. 12 months, 6% up. Um, so we're still trading at a pretty hefty valuation.
这是一只相当昂贵的股票，然后在质量或持有期限方面，我可能会把它评为 B2。你有不同看法吗？我非常喜欢 Shopify，我认为我们应该重新审视它。
Um, it's quite an expensive stock and then in terms of quality or the tenure horizon I would probably put it B2. Um, do you see that differently? I like Shopify a lot and um I think we should revisit it.
你知道，对于任何不太了解这项业务的人来说，简单说一下，他们有点像小企业的白手套解决方案。所以基本上他们创建了一个商务平台。所以如果你想创办一家销售某种产品的公司，他们会为你建立整个生态系统，包括所有物流，你知道的。
Um you know Shopify for anyone who doesn't really know the business just to quickly say it um they are uh sort of a a white glove uh solution to uh small businesses. So basically they create uh a commerce platform. So if you want to uh you know start a company selling uh you know some sort of product u they build out the entire ecosystem for you all the logistics you know
明显更全面，你知道，从支付处理到订单的实际物流和供应链，帮助你建立网站，测试不同类型的广告活动，他们做所有事情。
>> significantly more comprehensive you know everything from payment processing to actually the logistics and supply chain of your order um helping you build out a website testing out different types of advertising campaigns um they do everything.
所以真的，如果你，我认为问题是，AI 将如何改变我们的购物方式？有很多人认为我们只会委托，你知道，你只会告诉你的代理去为你买东西，然后他们可能会绕过个别网站，直接去亚马逊和这些大型聚合商，找到足够好的东西。
我不一定同意这个前提。我不认为每个人都会把购物外包给代理。我认为你想看到你在亚马逊上买的阿迪朗达克椅子，你想看到你买的窗帘。你知道，你不想把所有事情都委托给代理。我对这种观点非常怀疑。
And so really, if you're um I think the question is, you know, how will um AI change the way we shop? You have a lot of people that think that we're just going to delegate uh you know, you're just going to tell your agent to go out and buy something for you and then they might bypass the individual websites uh and and just go to Amazon and go to these big aggregators and and find something that's good enough for you. I don't necessarily agree with that premise. I I I don't see everybody just outsourcing shopping to agents. Um I think you want to, you know, see the the uh aderondic chairs that you're buying on Amazon and you you know, you want to see the uh the curtains that you're buying. You know, you don't want to just delegate everything to an agent. Uh I I I I'm very skeptical of that take.
所以你知道，其中一个想法是，基本上人们会停止直接访问这些小企业网站，因为代理。代理会更喜欢去亚马逊或沃尔玛或任何地方。
Um so you know that was one of the ideas is that uh basically um people would stop going directly to these small business websites um because of agents. Uh the agents would prefer to go to Amazon or Walmart or whatever it is.
实际上，我刚刚听了一个采访，我想他的名字是 Michael Warden。这是在 Ben Thompson 的付费播客上，或者是一个付费访问的播客。非常非常好。我们不是附属机构，但我会推荐它。
它不是很贵。无论如何，他们进行了一个非常有趣的对话，他说，根据他的研究，尽管他对多个 LLM 进行了广泛的提示，问他们如果有人查询购买电子商务产品，他们会直接去小企业或中型企业网站，还是更可能将人们引导到亚马逊上的产品或类似版本的产品。
他发现，就在过去一年里，访问这些公司网站的流量比访问亚马逊本身的流量增加了四倍。重点是，如果一切都去亚马逊，那么 Shopify 就会死，但如果人们继续想直接访问企业网站，直接访问那些品牌，那才是定义 Shopify 长期成功的关键。
And actually I was just listening to an interview uh with um I think his name is Michael Warden. Uh it was on uh Ben Thompson's uh paid podcast uh or it's a paid to access podcast. It's very very good. Um I'm not we're not affiliated but uh I would recommend it. It's not super expensive. Um and anyways uh they had a a really interesting conversation where uh he was saying that you know according to his research um despite the fact that he did extensive prompting with a number of LLMs asking them um what they would be you know if if somebody came with a query about um buying an e-commerce product uh which platform would they be you know the directly to the small business or you know medium-sized business website or would they um you know be more likely to route people to the to a product or to the product or a similar version of the product on Amazon. Um and what he found is that there's been uh just in the last year like a four times increase in the amount of traffic to uh these these uh you know company websites as opposed to Amazon itself. with the point being that uh you know if everything just goes to Amazon then yeah Shopify dies but if people continue to want to go directly to uh the business's websites um and you know directly to uh those brands that really is uh what is going to define Shopify's success long term.
所以我认为这里存在一些真正的 AI 不确定性。我认为确实存在来自亚马逊的重大竞争风险，我们在节目中谈了很多。我非常非常看好 Shopify。我认为他们继续向上市场移动并帮助更多品牌的潜力是巨大的。
这是一个巨大的跑道，但就像我说的，存在相当宽的不确定性范围。所以，不仅因为 AI，而且真的也因为亚马逊作为竞争对手。我可能会把他们放在 B 级，其中，
So um I think there's some real AI uncertainty here. I think just legitimately there's a major competitive risk uh risk with from Amazon that we talked about a lot in the episode. Um I'm very very bullish on Shopify. Uh I think that um their potential to continue to move up market and help more brands um is dramatic. It's a huge runway, but like I said, there's a pretty wide band of uncertainty. So, um, not only because of AI, but, uh, really also just because of Amazon, um, as a competitor. I would probably put them in the B tier where, um,
就像我说的，我可以构建一个非常强劲的看涨论点，说明为什么 Shopify 在十年后会成为一个更好的业务，一个更大的业务。但我确实认为存在合理的不确定性。然后在估值方面，就像你说的，这是一只昂贵的股票。
它一直是一只昂贵的股票。是的，我无法把它排在 Airbnb 之上。
>> like I said, I I I can put together a really strong bull thesis on why Shopify will be uh, a much better business, a much bigger business 10 years from now. But I do think that there are, you know, legitimate uncertainties. And then in terms of valuation, um, like you said, it's it's an expensive stock. It has been an expensive stock. Uh, yeah, it would be I I couldn't put put it above Airbnb.
我可能会，是的，我可能会把它排在 Airbnb 之下。是的，我认为这是一只定价高昂的股票。你必须真正相信增长故事和附加值。
>> I I would probably Yeah, I would probably put it even below Airbnb. >> yeah, >> I think it's a richly priced stock. You have to really buy into to the growth story uh and the value ad.
我个人认为，我们之前提到过，例如，美国的电子商务渗透率只有大约 20%，而中国大约是 32%。我有时看着这些数字，它们似乎表明仍有巨大的增长空间。与此同时，美国市场在电子商务方面相当成熟。
所以我认为存在一个自然的障碍，比如这些公司以及整个电子商务渠道还有多少增长空间的上限。
I think like personally for me I think we mentioned before for example that um e-commerce penetration in the US is only about you know is probably 20% and then China is about 32%. I still sometimes you look at these numbers and they make it seem like there's still huge room to grow. Um at the same time the US market in terms of e-commerce is quite mature. Um so I think there's a natural barrier like ceiling for how much more um room there is to grow for these companies and especially the e-commerce channel in general.
我想说的是，我不认为亚马逊是那么大的威胁，因为对我来说它们是两回事。比如有些产品，当我寻找它们时，我会立刻去亚马逊，甚至不会先看谷歌再输入，而是直接去亚马逊。而有些东西我就在谷歌上搜索。
我无法给出一个百分比，但我觉得我去的大多数商店或店面都是 Shopify 商店，即使你不知道。所以当你不在亚马逊上时，感觉就像去了 Shopify。对我来说，那是一种非常独特的购物体验。
Um, what I want to say with that is I don't think Amazon's that big of a threat because to me they're two different things. Like there's certain products that when I look for them, I go on Amazon immediately. I don't even look at Google and then type it in and then I go through Amazon. It's more me going to Amazon in the first place. And then there's stuff that I just I look up on Google. And I couldn't give you a percentage, but I feel like the vast majority of, you know, store places or like storefronts that I go on is a Shopify store, even if you don't know it. So whenever you're not on Amazon, it feels like you're going to Shopify. And to me, that's like a very distinct um shopping experience.
我认为亚马逊有一个很宽的利基市场，Shopify 也是如此。我不认为它们的重叠程度有我们想象的那么大。我认为亚马逊实际上想进入的一些领域更接近 Shopify 正在做的事情。这更像是基本论点。
I think Amazon has a well I wanted to say niche like a very wide niche and then Shopify is the same. And I don't think they overlap to the extent um that we think. I think there are some things that Amazon actually wanted to get into that's closer to what Shopify is doing. That's more of the bare thesis.
尤其是现在，我们有图表显示目前有多少钱花在人工智能上，以及有多少人才进入人工智能领域。当我想到谷歌、亚马逊这类公司时，我认为他们大部分的人才和资金将花在人工智能上，而不是考虑如何开始颠覆 Shopify。所以我认为从长远来看，这不会是一个大问题。
And especially right now I mean we had the chart on how much money is currently spent on AI and how much talent is going to the AI space. When I think about Google, when I think about Amazon and these sorts of companies, I think most of their talent and money will be spent on AI and not to the capacity of how can we start disrupting Shopify. Um, so I don't think that will be a huge um problem in the long term.
我认为 BT 是合理的，因为老实说，在 A 和 B 级中，我们这里只有高质量的公司。所以我认为把它放在那里很有道理，而今天的估值肯定更贵了。
I think BT is fair because I mean to be completely honest like A and B tier, we only have high quality companies here. Um, so I think it makes a lot of sense um to put it there and then value today it is certainly more expensive.
Shopify，我们刚刚讨论了 Meta，上周我们讨论了 MS、LVMH，
Shopify, we just discussed Meta, we had last week, um, MS, LVMH,
这个频道对 $SHOP 的历次判断
The Intrinsic Value Podcast 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。