SKHY 在大幅上涨后已超买;现在不要买入,等待回调/均值回归。
逐段跳播
现在我们看看它的另一个版本,美国版本,SKH,看看它今天在哪里。我想它今天是表现最好的之一。我们在哪里?在那里。哦,它又涨了13美元。这一直是一笔漂亮的leaps交易。顺便说一句,回测非常重要,但我们刚刚推出了一个新版本的回测。
这一个没有足够的历史数据来做回测,但也许我们可以把它打开。我们把置信度模型也打开。我们把距离调短一点,比如一小时的时间框架。再说一次,几天前它还在156,现在已经涨到接近200了。
哇,它今天触及了200。199.87。绝对的猛兽。有意思的是,一周前,我想是周三,我做了一个视频,我该买哪只内存股?而这一只在竞争中胜出。所以,这是一笔非常非常非常非常好的交易。
而且顺便说一句,人们很害怕买ADR而不是直接进入韩国交易所,但对我这个期权交易者来说,我必须用SKHY。不是纯正的形式,但不要害怕ADR。我已经交易它们35年了。
Now if we look at the other version of this, the American version, the SKH, let's see where this is today. I think it's a top performer today. And where are we? There. Oh, it is up another $13. This this this is uh this has been a beautiful trade with leaps. By the way, back tests are very important, but we just rolled out a new version of uh the back test. This one doesn't have enough history to get a back test, but maybe we can turn it on. Let's go the confidence model on too. Let's go shorter shorter distance like one hour time frame. Um, again, this was at 156 a few days ago and it's gone up to nearly 200. Wow, it hit 200 today. 199.87. An absolute beast. And it's funny cuz a week ago, I think it was on Wednesday, I made a video, should I buy which memory stock? And this one won the competition. So, it's been a very, very, very, very nice trade. So, and and by the way, people were freaked out about buying ADRs over accessing the Korean stock exchange, but for me as an options trader, I have to use SKHY. Not the pure form, but don't be scared about ADRs. I've been trading them for 35 years.
如果我在一个免税账户里,SK Hanik看起来是超买了还是可以持有不动?我不会。我不会。顺便说一句,我喜欢你的狗。Jim Jim 71。我不会在这么大的涨幅之后去追任何东西。我是说,这太疯狂了。
If I'm in a tax-free account, is SK Hanik looking overboard or hold steady? I would not. I would not. I like your dog, by the way. Jim Jim 71. Um, I would not chase anything after such a huge move. I mean, this is pretty bonkers.
我们把均值回归打开,图个乐,因为看到这个很重要。这些就是所有的模型。均值回归把它标出来了。哦,我们没法让均值回归起作用,因为它没有足够的历史数据来计算。所以,这一个我们得去母舰上看。
然后我们看看这里的均值是什么样。我们去看,这个也可能表现不太好,因为韩国市场有点不一样。但把这个打开,我们把非常激进打开。你会看到这里,我们有大的尖峰。让我看看。让我把均值版本叠加在这张图上面,这样我看两者都容易得多。
所以,我们在触及历史新高时这里有一个大的均值回归尖峰,那接近300万零一。那是6月26日。然后我们在这里、这里、这里有一堆小的均值回归尖峰。你能看到这些家伙。砰、砰、砰、砰、砰。
所以现在,当你看到上面这样一个带红点的尖峰时,从这里下跌的概率是72%。不要买,不要在这个水平加仓,Jim Jim。任何时候,记住,情况都可能转变得相当快。当你看到底部的绿点时,那就是你买入的时候。
顶部的红点,那就是你对冲、卖出或持有看跌期权的时候。现在,有时候会有抛售,而且可能相当小。所以,在这种情况下,均值回归之后我们确实有一次抛售,但它很小。大概13%。我们可能会看到,这东西在过去这么多天里每天涨10%以上。
我们把日线图打开,让你感受一下这波行情有多猛。记住,韩国市场之间也有区别,其实这是美国市场,会给你展示得更好一点。这就是我们说的那波猛涨。绝对疯狂,每一天都是巨大的蜡烛。持续不断的吸筹。
不要在这里买。等等,等均值回归发生。均值回归可能很小,可能不会很大,但我会在这里小心。
Let's turn on uh let's turn on mean reversion here for a giggle because that's important to see. Um, these are all the models. Mean reversion has popped this up. Oh, we're not going to have mean reversion work because it doesn't have enough history to calculate. So, we're going to have to go to the mothership for this one. And then we'll see what means like here. And we'll go and this also might not behave very well because the Korean market is a bit different. But turn on this and we'll turn on very aggressive. And you'll see here, well, we had big spikes. Let me see. Let me overlay the mean version on top of this chart so it's much easier for me to see both. So, we had this big mean version here spike when we hit the all-time high, which is nearly 3 million one. And uh that was June 26th. And then we had a bunch of little mean aversion spikes here, here, here. You can see these guys. Boom, boom, boom, boom, boom. Um, so right now, so when you see a spike like this up here with a red dot, there's a 72% chance it's going to fall from here. Do not buy, do not add Jim Jim at this level. Anytime things and and remember can turn around pretty fast. When you see the green dots at the bottom, that's when you buy. Red dots at the top, that's when you hedge your sell or hold put. Now, sometimes there can be a sell off and it can be quite small. So, in this case, we did have a sell off after the mean reversion, but it was teeny. It was like 13%. We might get like this thing has been adding 10 plus% a day for the last so many days. Let's turn on the daily chart and just to give you an idea of how what a rampage this has been on. And remember there is also a difference between the Korean actually this is the US market will show you a little bit better. This is the rampage that we're talking about. Absolutely insane massive candles every single day. Constant accumulation. Do not buy here. Um wait wait wait for the mean reversion to happen. And the mean reversion might be small might not be huge but I would uh be careful here.
让我看看在Charles Cannon的鸟之后,Heinix的好入场点是什么。好问题。SK Heinix。很多人非常懊恼错过了那一只。因为它的这波猛涨,有很多Pomo。我们看看母舰,因为它真正决定了一切。
这一只一直是一头疯狂的猛兽。所以,我们有我们的买入点,当我看看这东西会走到哪里时,我们回到比如12小时的时间框架。看得更精确一点。入场很简单。我会从ATR上的第三档开始,1496韩元。
你其实可以在那里设一个提醒。我也会设一个提醒。所以,如果它真的触及这个水平,我会买入ADR SKHY。但我不会追,尽管我知道内存会涨得高得多,它会从这里翻倍。我只是在这么大的涨幅之后,会非常小心。
现在还要记住,整个韩国交易所都炸了,因为那个Leopold Dash和Brena那家伙,那把我们带到了这里。那本来会是一个很好的买入机会,但我们不确定能不能走出困境,但它真的在40天内涨了50%。
我不喜欢在那之后追。而且,均值回归又开始活跃起来了。所以,Charles,现在先持有,等等其他东西。我确实预计9月会有一些风暴。有很多好东西处于非常超卖的状态。所以,要小心。
Let me see what is a good entry for Heinix after the bird from Charles Cannon. Good question. SK Heinix. A lot of people were very upset they missed that one. Um, a lot of Pomo because of the rampage it's been on. And let's look at the mothership because that really determines everything. Um, this one's just been a crazy beast. So, we we had our buy and when I look at where this thing would go, let's go back into say 12-hour time frame. Get a more precise look. Entries real simple. I'd start with level three on the ATR at 1496 Korean one. You can actually set an alert there. I will set an alert too. So, if it does hit this level, I will buy the ADR SKHY. Um, but I wouldn't chase even though I know memory is going way higher, it's going to go it's going to double from here. Um, I just after such a huge move, I'd be very careful. Now remember as well the all the Korean stock exchange blew up because that Leopold Dash and Brena guy h and that took us down to here. That would have been a great buy opportunity, but we weren't sure if we were going to come out of the woods, but literally it's up 50% in 40 days. And I don't like chasing after that. Also, the mean reversion is coming out coming alive again. So, uh, Charles, hold for now and and wait for other things. I do expect some storms in September. There's lots of good things that are very oversold. So, be careful.
这个频道对 $SKHY 的历次判断
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