$SMCI

SMCI 在当前价位具备技术面吸引力,源于其图表位置与基本面增长,支持看多入场。

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《SMCI's Hidden Potential Exposed》
Cash Flow Machine | Mark Yegge | Wealth Architect发布 2026-09-28 · 18 段内容
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18 段内容
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你还记得这家叫 SMCI 的公司吗?他们过去为比特币挖矿生产服务器。他们稍微改变了方向,转向了另一条业务线;他们为人工智能技术生产存储单元和服务器,我认为在当前这个时间点、在当前的市场环境下,这是一个恰当且不错的举措。

Do you remember this company called SMCI? They used to manufacture servers for Bitcoin mining. Well, they have changed course slightly towards a different line of work; They manufacture storage units and servers for artificial intelligence technologies , and I think it is a good and appropriate step at the present time and under the current market conditions.

今天第二只股票是 SMCI,我们用的是所谓的火箭策略。当市场上涨(绿色)时,而它几天前转绿了,同时股票也在上涨时,就意味着你可以稍微踩一脚油门。这正是我期待去做的。这里我们按照“现金流机器”系统给它一个评级,这个系统显示了我期待去做什么。这些是周度期权。

Okay, the second stock today was SMCI, and we are using what is called the rocket strategy. So, when the market is up (green), and it turned green a few days ago, and when the stock is also up, it means you're stepping on the gas pedal a little.

That's what I'm looking forward to doing . Here we give it a rating according to the " Cash Flow Machine" system, which shows what I look forward to doing. These are weekly options.

但在我看来,SMCI 在图表上正处于一个理想的起点。我不是叫你去买这只股票。我会说,这是你开始研究的位置,对吧?

but it seems to me that SMCI is at an ideal starting point on the chart. I am not telling you to go out and buy this stock. I would say that this is the point at which you begin your research, isn't it?

所以我看 SMCI 这只股票,说:“好,我可以以大约 4213 的价格买入这只股票,至少按照这个筛选器是这样。”我会在到期日前四天进行卖出。这是一个相对较短的持有期。它在周五到期。

今天是周一,所以我们大约有三到四天半。实际上,现在是 3:30,所以我们看看会发生什么。我期待执行 10 月 2 日、行权价 43 美元的看涨期权。股价目前是 4213。

So I look at SMCI stock and say, "Okay, I can buy the stock at around 4213, at least according to this scanner." I will proceed with the sale four days before the expiry date. This is a relatively short shelf life.

It expires on Friday. Today is Monday, so we have about three and a half to four days. Actually, it's 3:30 now, so we'll see what happens. I am looking forward to executing the call option at $43 for October 2nd. The stock price is currently 4213.

要充分理解这个期权的含义,它略微处于价外。这就是它被称为“导弹策略”的原因。我们希望股票像火箭一样上涨一点。如果我们的执行价格超过 43 美元,我们就实现了这笔交易的最大利润。

然后,如果我们想继续留在交易中,我们可以推迟它,或者如果我们不想,就让它到期执行。

To fully appreciate the implications of this option, it is slightly out of the money . That's why it's called the " missile strategy". We want the stock to rise a little like a rocket .

If our execution price exceeds $43, we achieve our maximum profit on the deal. Then, if we want to stay in the deal, we can postpone it or let it go through if we don't want to .

如果你是新手,我们做的事情基本上就是买入一项资产,然后把它租给别人,对吧?因此,我们给某人在一个预定日期之前以预定价格买入我们股票的权利。这里的价格是 43,这里的日期是 10 月 2 日。

所以我们给某人四天时间,但作为给出这四天的交换,我们得到了一些东西,而那个东西就是我们的收入。我们在这里称之为“收益率”(Juice),而这个收益率目前大约是 1 美元 6 美分,好吗?

If you're new here, what we do is basically buy an asset and then lease it to someone , right? Therefore, we give someone the option to buy our shares at a predetermined price before a predetermined date.

The price here is 43 and the date here is October 2nd. So we give someone, you know, four days, but in exchange for giving them these four days, we get something, and that something is our income.

We call it here " the yield" (Juice), and this yield is currently, as you know, about one dollar and six cents, okay ?

这告诉你我们如何看待这件事,然后你可以看到那些百分比之类的东西。至于年化百分比,不要对它太兴奋。它只是一种把四天后到期的期权和 40 天后到期的期权进行比较的方式,因为它是按年化计算的,显然会把它翻倍;当你想着可以一遍又一遍地做,到年底你就会得到这个时,它把数字放大了更多。

但关键在于它给了你一个可以比较的东西。如果这只股票在这一轮被行权,这就是那个百分比。

This tells you how we view the matter, and then you can see the percentages and all that stuff. As for the annual percentage, don't get too excited about it. It is simply a way to compare an option that expires in four days with one that expires in 40 days, because it calculates it on an annual basis, and it obviously doubles it; It amplifies it much more when the idea is that you can do it over and over again, you know, and at the end of the year you'll get this.

But the idea is that it gives you something to compare it to. If the stock is called in this session, this is the percentage.

因此,这只股票是绿色的,因为我们有这个市场择时组件,它对股票进行分类,并给出四个标准来判断它是否为绿色。这只股票达到了四分之四。它是否满足优先股的标准?是的。是否是股东权益回报率?

非常好。我们希望看到 17,但它是 15。那没关系。期权的未平仓合约非常好。

Thus , the stock is green because we have this market timing component that classifies stocks, and gives four criteria for determining whether it is green. This stock achieved four out of four.

Did it meet the criteria for preferred shares? Yes. Is it the return on shareholders' equity? It's very good. We would like to see 17, but it's 15. That's okay. The open interest on options is very good.

然后我们有一个熔断机制,因为设置止损单非常重要,对吧?你知道,你想让亏损保持很小,让利润大幅增长。因此,我喜欢在我想要长期持有的股票上入场。所以,我尽量在它上涨轨迹中相对较早的时候买入。

Then we have a circuit breaker, because it is very important to set stop- loss orders, isn't it? As you know, you want to keep your losses small and let your profits grow substantially.

Therefore, I like to enter a stock that I want to hold for a long time. Therefore, I try to buy it relatively early in its upward trajectory.

现在,SMCI 两年前因为一些会计问题和违规行为遇到了一些麻烦,股价下跌了。那似乎已经是过去的事了。顺便说一句,这不是投资建议。这是你开始研究的地方。你应该这样看待它。所以,这就是我的看法。

我有一只我感兴趣的股票。我做了研究。我知道这家公司做什么。我喜欢他们做的事情。所以,我有了正确的股票。

Now, SMCI faced some trouble two years ago due to some accounting issues and irregularities, and the stock price fell. That seems to be a thing of the past. By the way, this is not investment advice.

This is where you begin your search. That's how you should look at it. So, that's how I see it. I have a stock I'm interested in. I have done the research. I know what the company does.

I like what they do. So, I have the right stock.

你可以在这里看到我们的四角系统。你试图在正确的市场中找到正确的股票。我快速给你概述一下。这是正确的市场。你会看到它已经转绿,你可以看到这是牛市的第三天。这是一个短期趋势,告诉你环境是有利的,如果你在一个趋势向上的市场中买入,你很可能会成功。

现在,今天它似乎没有上涨,因为它处于低位。但市场不会永远上下波动。它们不会永远停留在自己的趋势中,也不会永远停留在低位。因此,我相信我们正处于一个上涨的市场中。这意味着会有一些卖出日,但也会有很多买入日。

所以,概率对那一天有利。很好。所以,我们有了正确的市场。

You can see our four-cornered system here. You are trying to find the right stock in the right market. I'll give you a quick overview. This is the right market. You will see that it has turned green, and you can see that it is the third day of the bull market.

This is a short-term trend that tells you the environment is favorable, and you are likely to succeed if you buy in a market that is trending upwards. Right now, today it doesn't seem to be going up because it's low.

But markets don't move up and down forever, you know. They do n't stay in their trends forever, and they don't stay low forever. Therefore, I believe we are in a rising market.

This means there will be some selling days, but there will also be many buying days. So, the odds are in favor of that day. Good. So, we have the right market.

现在,我想看看图表上合适的点位在哪里。所以我打开我的“Pattern Wreck”应用,打开 SMCI 的箭头。我们先看看这里出现的基本面,好吗?关于销售额,你看到这只股票从 150 亿到 220 亿再到 390 亿。

这是一个大跳跃,到 670 亿,然后是 790 亿。这些都是过去两年的估计值。所以,它以两位数的速度增长。我喜欢二进制数字,你不喜欢吗?2024 年是三位数,这就是为什么这只股票表现极其出色。不过,两位数在大多数时候仍然相当高。

Now, I want to look and see what the appropriate point is on the graph. So, I go to my "Pattern Wreck" app and open the SMCI arrow. Let's first take a look at the basics that appear here, okay?

Regarding sales, you see the stock moving from 15 billion to 22 billion to 39 billion. That's a big jump to 67 billion and then 79. These are all estimates here in the last two years.

So , it is growing at double-digit rates. I love binary numbers, don't you ? It was triple digits in 2024, which is why the stock performed incredibly well. However, two-digit numbers remain fairly high most of the time .

然后我们看他们的利润,发现它们也由高两位数构成。你还可以查看季度销售额和季度利润。三年每股收益达到每年 18%,三年销售额以每年 76% 的速度增长。这里的股本回报率显示是 25,所以我需要核实一下。

这只股票过去几天,我是说过去 14 天的平均真实波幅大约是 5.5%。因此,它有一定的波动,波动越大,利润越多,但当然,下行风险也增加。

Then we look at their profits, and we find that they also consist of high double-digit figures . You can also view quarterly sales and quarterly profits. Earnings per share for three years reached 18% annually, and sales for three years grew at a rate of 76% annually.

The return on equity here says it's 25, so I need to check that. The average true range of the stock over the past few days, I mean the past 14 days, is about 5.5%. Therefore, it has some movement, and the more movement there is, the more profits there are, but of course, the downside risks also increase.

你看,危险不在上行方向。所以,那些卖出备兑看涨期权的人,如果认为风险在上行方向,认为股票会继续上涨,那正是我们想要的。我们希望股票上涨,因为这意味着我们的标的头寸,通常是我们的股票头寸,也会上涨。

是的,你可能需要用一些营运资金来滚动到更高的执行价格,但哪门生意不用营运资金呢,对吧?因此,我把它看作向上循环的营运资金。如果你不想向上滚动,就直接退出中心。你处于一个不错的位置。总之,我喜欢这里的基本面。

Look, the danger is not on the upside. So, those who have sold covered call options, and believe that the risk lies in the upside, and that the stock continues to rise , that is what we want.

We want the stock to rise because that means our underlying position, usually our stock position, also rises. Yes, you may have to use some working capital to roll over to a higher execution price, but what business doesn't use working capital, right?

Therefore, I view it as working capital for upward circulation. If you do not wish to rotate upwards, simply exit the center. You are in a good position . Anyway, I like the basics here.

我们把这个去掉,看看图表。我看一下图表,你会看到这个形态。让我给你稍微放大一点。啊,好的。现在我们总结一下。目前我们有的是这个。你可以在股票的日线图上看到这次上涨到 51.40,然后它一路跌到 23。

不管你是否从备兑看涨期权中获得利润,忍受这个都不好玩。这是一个显著的下跌。但现在这只股票已经摆脱了卖方,我们在这里有一个小的向上跳空缺口。我们建立了一点凝聚力。这就是我所说的新规则。

因此,它正好位于突破点的下方。所以,这是买入这只股票非常好的时机。

Let's get rid of this, and take a look at the graph. I'll take a look at the chart, and you'll see this pattern. Let me enlarge this for you a little. Ah , okay. Now let's round up.

Here's what we have at the moment. You can see this rise on the daily chart of the stock at 51.40, and it has dropped as low as 23. It's not fun to put up with that, regardless of whether you are getting profits from covered call options or not.

This is a significant decrease. But now the stock has gotten rid of the sellers, and we had a small upward gap here . We have built a little cohesion. It's what I call a new rule.

Therefore, it lies directly below the point of penetration. Therefore, this is a very good time to enter the stock.

这告诉你对预期波动区间的一种预测。目前,它处于平均真实波幅的八或二的预期波动区间的中间,我是这么称呼它的。这就是我的看法。所以,我把这只股票看作是我愿意长期持有的东西,只要它继续表现良好。

This tells you a sort of prediction for the expected range of movement. Currently, it is in the middle of the expected range of movement of eight or two of the average true range, that's what I call it.

That's how I see it. So, I look at this stock as something that, you know, I would like to hold for the long term as long as it continues to perform well .

对我来说,图上的这些点代表着成功率更高的形态。市场中不存在确定性,只有可能性,不是吗?因此,我们要做的是找到图上最好的那个点。我们从William O’Neill那里,以及那些把股票研究追溯至140年前的人那里所观察和研究到的是,实际情况是买方和卖方轮流试图决定谁在掌控局面,不是吗?

然后他们到达这些小的转折点。是的,这是一个前期高点摆动点,就像我们这里看到的42.31。目前,该股也在这个水平附近。所以,你看这里该股在42.02。你对自己说:“嗯,也许它准备要突破了。”

现在,记住所有突破中有40%会失败。但这意味着其中60%,如果形态正确形成,将会成功。

These points on the graph, for me, represent charts with a higher probability of success. There are no certainties in the market. There are only possibilities, aren't there? Thus, what we are trying to do is find the best point on the graph.

What we have observed and studied, you know, from William O’Neill , and people who have studied stocks going back 140 years , is that what happens is that these buyers and sellers take turns trying to decide who is in control, isn’t that right?

Then they reach these small turning points. Yes, it is a previous high swing point , as we have here at 42.31. Currently, the stock is also around this level . So, you see the stock here at 42.02.

You say to yourself, "Well, maybe he's ready to hack in." Now, remember that 40% of all hacks fail. But this means that 60% of them, if formed correctly, will succeed.

这里我们的Genius Power Index为91,这意味着它在相对强度以及我们所谓的Genius Index方面,目前表现优于数据库中91%的股票,这表明该股已获得绿灯。所以,这就是我们在任何股票中寻找的东西。

而且我确实觉得它在我看来不错。如果它在你看来也不错,这就是开始你搜索的一个好起点。

Here we have a Genius Power Index at 91, which means it is currently outperforming 91% of the stocks in the database in terms of relative strength and what we call our Genius Index , which indicates that the stock has received the green light.

So, this is what we look for in any stock. And I really think it looks good to me. If it looks good to you, this is a good starting point to begin your search.

这个频道对 $SMCI 的历次判断

Cash Flow Machine | Mark Yegge | Wealth Architect 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。

2026-09-28看涨本条
你还记得这家叫 SMCI 的公司吗?他们过去为比特币挖矿生产服务器。他们稍微改变了方向,转向了另一条业务线;他们为人工智能技术生产存储单元和服务器,我认为在当前这个时间点、在当前的市场环境下,这是一个恰当且不错的举措。
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