SMH突破失败，表明可能因收益率压力和AI资本开支担忧而跌向531.23美元支撑位。
逐段跳播
接下来是半导体板块，各位，你们都知道，我喜欢把半导体作为领先指标来跟踪。各位，周五发生的事情是你们所有人都可以跟踪的，因为我试图一步一步地帮助你们理解，短期内半导体是会看涨，还是会有点看跌。
Next up into the semis, guys, and then as you all know, I love following the semis as a leading indicator. And guys, what happened Friday is something all of you guys can follow because I've tried to go step-by-step to help you understand whether we're going to be bullish near-term with the semi in uh with the semis or we're going to be a little bit bearish.
短期内，我们看到半导体板块出现了一些希望的曙光，向上突破，这可能会推动并带动其他市场，但这种情况尚未发生。各位，你们所要做的就是在图表上画一条趋势线，从SMH的高点开始，向下画到图表上6月30日出现的下一个主要K线，然后一直延伸下去。
In near-term, we've had little glimpses of hope with the semis pushing up above, which likely will push and carry the rest of the markets with them, but it hasn't happened yet. And all you got to do, guys, is just draw one trend line on your chart, get that at the high of the SMH, draw it down to the next major candle on the chart that occurred here on June 30th, and extend that all the way down.
你会注意到，上周四，有一根K线不仅收于这条下降趋势线上方，而且收于这个更大的上升平行通道上方，该通道可追溯到2025年4月的低点。那是一次很棒的单日上涨，但周五抹去了所有这些希望。
And you notice here on Thursday of last week, we had one candle closing above not only this declining trend line, but this larger inclining parallel channel that dated back to the April 2025 lows. That was a great one-day push, but then Friday erased all of those hopes.
我们希望看到后续的上涨，收盘价高于周四的K线，但各位，我们没有看到。所以，SMH图表上的短期突破尝试失败了。
We wanted to see a follow-up push higher with a daily close above Thursday's candle, and guys, we did not get that. So, near-term failed breakout attempt here on the chart of SMH.
这告诉我，任何形式的失败走势都意味着我们可能会跌向下一个支撑位，即531.23美元。当我们翻到下一张图表上的10年期收益率图表时，这是有道理的。我们可能将面临更多的市场压力，尤其是像这样在AI数据中心建设的资本支出上投入如此之多的公司，比如SMH。
That tells me any sort of failed move tells me we're likely coming down to the next support, which is going to be down here at $531.23. Makes sense when we flip over to the 10-year uh yield chart on the next chart. We likely are going to be due for more pressure in the markets, particularly companies like this that are uh investing so much in CapEx spending for AI data center build-outs with the SMH.
再次强调，大约在5:30，这又是自解放日低点以来一直存在的上升平行通道。而且，就像画这条趋势线一样，任何人都可以拿出平行工具，从枢轴点到枢轴点画出一条长期平行线，然后在图表上一直延伸出去，解释并展示价格如何试图突破却失败，告诉我们SMH可能面临更多下行空间。
So, again, right around 5:30, which again is the uh inclining parallel channel dating all the way back here to the liberation daily lows. And again, just much like drawing this trend line, guys, anybody can pick out the parallel tool and draw this a long-term parallel extending out from pivot to pivot, and then just extend it all the way out on the chart, explaining and showing how price is trying to get above, yet failing, telling us we're likely due for more downside movement on the SMH.
他说在等什么
这个频道对 $SMH 的历次判断
Verified Investing 在这只股票上共 3 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。