SMH面临短期下行（约2周），随后可能因技术形态而在第四季度上行。
逐段跳播
现在我要做的是，我将查看 SMH、XLF、XBI 作为股票市场的代理，因为它们如何对齐。然后我们将查看纳斯达克和标普 500，如果还有一点时间，我们将查看 VIX，然后我将向你展示市场状况监视器，展望未来。
Now what I'm going to do is I'm going to look at SMH, XLF, XBI as proxies for the stock market because how these align. Then we'll look at the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 uh and if uh have a little time we'll look at the VIX and then I'll show you the market condition monitor uh moving forward.
所以现在我要做的是，我将离开这个月线图，然后切换到 SMH。那么，我对 SMH 说了什么？我们在节目早些时候收到了对 SMH 的请求，我说我会把它带到这里。有趣的是，SMH，我通常不做这个分析，Katie 或 RV 跟踪这个，你可以看到他们一直在寻找这个市场下跌到这个时间框架。
现在，这里有一个更早的低点，与早期低点对齐。我会在纳斯达克中向你展示。然后你可以看到他们指向下跌，它可能实际上还会再下跌一次。
So now what I'm going to do is I'm going to leave this monthly chart and uh then switch over here uh to SMH. [clears throat] So, what did I say about SMH? We had a request for SMH earlier in the show and I said I was going to bring it uh here. Interestingly, so SMH, I don't normally do the analysis on this uh Katie or RV keep track of this and you can see that they were looking for the this market to move down into this time frame. Now, there was an earlier low here that was an alignment with the early low. I'll show you in the NASDAQ. And then there you can see they have it pointing down that it may actually come down one more time.
当我查看这里的日线图时，这是我对股票市场的问题之一，那就是它已经突破了这一低点，然后你看到了这个大反弹。概率很高，它将再下跌两周，然后这个低点才会到位。所以那将使它下跌，可能测试这个低点。
When I look at the daily chart over here, this is one of the issues I had with the stock market and that is it's already broken this low and then you had this big bounce. Probability is pretty high that it's going to move down for another two weeks before this low is in place. So that would make it coming down maybe testing this low.
这两周真的很重要，因为它与 HYG 对齐，我向你展示过，而且文本与借贷成本非常一致。这就是为什么我们看到 HYG 和公司债券的疲软。这就是为什么我们看到纳斯达克相对于标普 500 的疲软。所有这些都吻合。
This two weeks is really what's important because it aligns with HYG what I showed you and uh the texts are very much uh in alignment with how much it costs to borrow money. That's why we saw the weakness in HYG uh and corporate bonds. That's why we see the weakness in the NASDAQ relative to the S&P 500. All of that lines up.
所以我们在这里看的是 SMH。但一旦这个低点在这里完成，然后我们进入这里的第四季度，那很可能会给你带来一些上行走势。为什么我会认为它可能是一个大的上行走势？嗯，这是一个非常强大的形态，它表明测试这个的可能性很大。
So what we're looking here is SMH. But then once this low is got is done in here, then we get into this fourth quarter over here and that's likely to be giving you some upside move in here. Uh, and why would I think that it could actually be a big upside move? Well, this is a very powerfully configured pattern and that says there's a pretty good chance at testing this.
所以当我再次查看 SMH 时，一些证据表明可能下跌几周，但之后可能再次转向上涨。
So when I look at SMH again, some of the evidence down for maybe a couple of weeks, but then probably moving to the upside again.
当我查看 SMH 时，它告诉我可能还有一次大规模的抛售。
When I look at, you know, the SMH, it says to me potentially one more sizable sell-off.
这个频道对 $SMH 的历次判断
Steve Miller 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。