预测：半导体ETF（SMH）未来两周将面临短期下跌，随后可能在第四季度出现上行。
逐段跳播
现在，我将继续看SMH指数。你对SMH说了什么？我们在节目早些时候收到了关于SMH的请求，我说我会在这里展示它。
Now, I'm going to move on here to the SMH index. What did you say about SMH? We received a request regarding SMH earlier in the program, and I said I would present it here.
有趣的是，我通常不分析这个指标；Katie和RV在关注这个，你可以看到他们预期这个市场在这个时间框架内会向下移动。这里有一个之前的低点，与我将在纳斯达克指数中展示的早期低点一致，正如你所看到的，他们有一个信号表明可能再次下跌。
Interestingly, I do n't usually analyze this indicator; Katie and RV are following this , and you can see that they were expecting this market to move downwards in this timeframe. There was a previous low here that aligns with the earlier low I'm going to show you in the Nasdaq index, and as you can see, they have a signal indicating a possible drop again.
当我看这里的日线图时，我发现这是我在股市中遇到的问题之一；这个底部确实被跌破了，然后我们目睹了这次大幅反弹。它很可能会再下跌两周，然后这个底部才会稳定下来。因此，这可能意味着下跌，也许是为了测试这个底部。
When I look at the daily chart here, I find that this is one of the problems I have encountered with the stock market ; This bottom was indeed broken, and then we witnessed this big bounce. The probability is very high that it will continue to fall for another two weeks before this bottom stabilizes. Therefore, it might mean a drop, perhaps to test this bottom.
这两周真的很重要，因为它们与HYG一致，我已经向你展示过。科技股与借贷成本密切相关。这就是为什么我们看到HYG和公司债券疲软。这就是为什么我们看到纳斯达克指数相对于标普500指数疲软。
这一切都是相互关联的。所以，我们在这里看的是SMH。
These two weeks are really important because they align with HYG, which I have shown you. Technology stocks are closely aligned with the cost of borrowing money. This is why we saw weakness in HYG and corporate bonds. This is why we see weakness in the Nasdaq index compared to the S&P 500 index. It all goes together. So, what we are looking at here is SMH.
但是一旦这个底部在这里完成，我们进入第四季度，我们很可能会看到这里出现一些上行走势。为什么我认为这可能是一次重大的上行走势？嗯，这是一个形态良好的模型，它表明测试这个水平有很好的机会。
But once this bottom is done here, we move into the fourth quarter, and we are likely to see some upward movement here. And why do I think it could be a major upward move? Well, this is a well-formed model, and it suggests there is a good chance of testing this level.
所以，当我再次看SMH时，我发现一些证据表明可能会下跌几周，但它很可能会再次向上移动。
So, when I look at SMH again, I find some evidence of a possible dip for a few weeks, but it is likely to move upwards again .
当我们看HYG，高收益公司债券，以及我们看SMH、XLE和XBI时，它们都告诉我未来几周存在风险，然后所有证据的总和表明第四季度可能会强劲。
When we look at HYG, high-yield corporate bonds, and we look at SMH, XLE, and XBI, they all tell me there are risks over the next couple of weeks, and then the sum total of the evidence suggests that the fourth quarter is likely to be strong.
当我看SMH指数时，我看到了另一次大规模抛售的可能性。
When I look at the SMH index, I see the possibility of another large sell-off.
这个频道对 $SMH 的历次判断
Steve Miller 在这只股票上共 3 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。