SMH 处于看跌趋势；若跌破 492，将预示进一步下行至 50 周移动均线。
逐段跳播
不过我想回到半导体这个交易上。如果你看 SMH，我们确实有那张图。再一次，只是——哦，对。我前几天看过 SMH。我们现在就来看一下。SMH。对，看起来不好。看起来不好。事实上，它现在肯定处于看跌趋势中。
它还会继续下跌吗？我不知道。我们不做那种预测。我们只能看看正在发生什么，然后围绕它来交易。现在，它这里确实有一些支撑，对吧？这里有一个小小的区块在提供支撑，也许下面还有一个看涨订单块。
但它就是没有同样的走势。对吧？回到这边，当市场在运转、板块在运转、个股在运转的时候，那真是轻松赚钱。而今天这边，完全不是轻松赚钱。市场上有轻松赚钱的时候，也有像现在这样一直横盘的时候，而这就是我们画这些箱体的原因，而它现在正跌出箱体。
对吧？自 8 月 4 日以来它一直在这个箱体里来回反弹。现在它跌破了箱体底部，跌到 50 日线之下。现在它正好处于这个区块区域的中间，这个位置和我们在 6 月 2 日看到的水平一样。
现在已经进入 9 月了。所以是非常令人沮丧的市场。绝对是。现在正在出现一点点看涨回踩旗形形态。一点点回调。如果你跌破 495，比如说 492，那时候你就会多一点担忧，会触及 50 周移动均线。
我认为那会是你的关键支撑区域。如果不是，而且我们继续下跌，那市场内部就有更大的问题了。
I want to go back to the semiconductor trade though. If you go to SMH, we do have that chart. Once again, just Oh, yeah. I looked at SMH the other day. Let's go look at it right now.
SMH. Yeah, not looking good. Not looking good. In fact, this is definitely in a bearish trend right now. Will it go down further? I don't know. We don't make predictions like that. we can just see what's going on and then trade around that.
Now, it does have some support right here, right? You've got some uh you got a little baby block right here that's providing support, maybe even another uh bullish order block down here.
Um but it's just not got the same move. Right? Back over here when the market was clicking, the sector was clicking, the stocks were clicking. Man, it was easy money. Over here today, not easy money at all.
There are times when there is easy money in the market and then there are times like this where it's been going sideways and that's what we draw the boxes around and it's falling outside the box at this point.
Right? It's been bouncing back and forth inside this box since August 4th. Now it's falling out the bottom under its 50-day. Now it's now squarely in the midst of this blocks area which is the same level that we saw all the way back on June 2nd.
We're into September now. So very frustrating market. Absolutely. just a little bit of a bull back flag pattern that's taking place right now. A little bit of a pullback. If you break below 495, let's say 492, that's when you get a little bit more concern hitting that 50week moving average.
I think that would be your your key area of support. And if not, and we break down, you have bigger problems within the market.
观察点
这个频道对 $SMH 的历次判断
Christopher Uhl - OVTLYR 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。