SNDK 正明确突破；在 11 月 5 日财报前被加入活跃交易名单。
逐段跳播
我想谈谈一些存储和数据存储类股票，比如 SanDisk、Micron 之类的。
I want to talk about some memory and data storage stocks like SanDisk, Micron, and the like.
关于 SanDisk，我先给大家看一下基本走势图。好。如你所见，我们都知道这里长期以来发生了什么。然后出现了这次大幅下跌。我会说大约 60%。是的，它下跌了将近 60%，这非常痛苦，尤其是对那个在顶部买入的可怜人来说。
顺便说一句，多年前我就是那个人。这很痛苦。我可以告诉你。如果那个人是在底部就好了。但我们可以看到这只股票是如何被交易的。嗯，一个良好的上升趋势，而且沿着 20 日均线相当可预测。
当这个趋势反转时，要关注 20 日均线。就是这里的黑线。它当时提供支撑，甚至在这里横盘交易时，虽然有波动，但 20 日均线是一条很好的分界线。一旦这条线在这里以高于平均水平的成交量被跌破，它就开始充当阻力。
而这个区域就在这里，我会说清楚。这个点告诉你，这波走势已经结束。因为 20 日均线当时充当支撑。支撑位一旦被跌破，就变成阻力位。这就是这里所显示的。但它涨到这里，然后又回落到这个点。
我们并不真正知道那是否代表阻力。它可能只是一次短暂的反弹休整，然后会继续攀升至新的纪录水平。但它没有。一旦它尝试了两次，随后就以大成交量跌破了 50 这一水平。那告诉我们这波走势已经结束，你应该离场。
好，这可以接受。你知道，事后分析总是显得非常精妙。但与此同时，这只股票一直在走出一系列更高的低点和一个平坦的顶部。所以，请允许我展示一下我在这里看的是什么。就看这些绿色方框。好。
这是一张关于价格密集区的图。你可以看到它处于更高的水平。这样一个包含所有这些价格池的方框就在这里。然后我们移到这里。从这里画到那里。这是下一个方框，更高的底部。然后下一个，一个略高的峰值和一个更高的谷底。
所以，这就是当你像我一样喜欢画方框时，底部看起来的样子。因此，它正在突破这条规则。我们周五在这里看到了大量成交。就是这样；当天收盘前有大量被迫买入。我昨天向我们的会员提到了这一点，以防你们被卷进去。
这就是一只股票被纳入 S&P 100 指数时会发生的情况。在当天收盘时，会发生一些再平衡。需要买入该股票的资金实际上会买入它。这也是为什么 Nike 的股票同时大幅下跌。顺便说一句，Nike 非常糟糕。
只是我的个人看法。但我确信 Dylan Mulvaney 还在跟着那个调子跳舞。总之，让我们回到正题。所以，这里有很多动作。今天此刻的走势非常显著。然后它横盘了。但在周一，这是后续。
各位，这是交易中的一个重要概念。在周五收盘时，你可以看看是什么导致了那次大幅波动，你可以相当容易地看到。该死的，那只是指数的再平衡。他们不得不买入这只股票，而且不得不在周五买入。
所以，这意味着买入过程已经结束。因此，这只股票周一肯定会下跌。没有任何理由让任何人去买它。这不是真正的上涨，这里没有实际的走势。这不像是在说：“看，他们真的在买这只股票。”我必须参与这波走势。
不，你在周五就得出这个结论，然后说：“不，够了。”这应该避免。嗯，那会是错误的结论。那会是一个简单的结论，但正因如此它才是一个错误的结论。因为市场比仅仅再平衡指标的算法要大得多。
它远不止于此。所以，尽管这是一次再平衡，而且成交量非常大，真的很大，尽管这是指数的再平衡，你知道第二天你会得到某种后续买入。市场就是这样运作的，因为交易最终是由人控制的。即使是算法也是从某人那里接收指令。
所以，你会看到第二天上涨。真正的问题是：这波上涨会持续吗？于是，砰。这就是我们周一看到的。一波上涨走势。我不认为我确切记得那是什么。不可能。嗯，我不认为这有什么大不了的。是的，它甚至没有 2% 的涨幅。
但几乎紧接着，过了一段时间，这东西迅速跌破了成交量加权平均价格。我给我们的交易员的指示是：“一旦股票开盘，就远离它。”只有当股票保持在成交量加权平均价格之上，并且保持在开盘缺口之上，也就是开盘价 18.25 之上时，你才会考虑买入。
嗯，它没有做到。这非常清楚，不，这不是我的交易。然后你坐在这里等待第二天，那就是今天。但问题仍然存在。这只股票会再次涨到这个水平之上吗？因为如果它没有涨到这个开盘价之上，那么从定义上讲，它仍然陷在供过于求的状态中。
所以，今天它保持在这个水平之上。它随着成交量的增加进一步上涨。这就是为什么我把这只股票放进了活跃交易名单。我认为 SanDisk 正在实现一个非常清晰的突破。他们在 11 月 5 日公布财报，
Regarding SanDisk , let me first show you the basic chart. Good. As you can see, we all know what has been going on here for a long time. Then this great decline occurred. I would say about 60%.
Yes, it's down by almost 60% , which is very painful , especially for that poor person who bought at the peak. And by the way, I was that person years ago. It's painful. I can tell you that.
It would be best if that person was here at the bottom. But we can see how this stock has been traded. Well, a good upward trend , and quite predictable along the 20-day moving average .
When this trend reversed, watch the 20-day moving average . That's the black line here. What was providing support, even here when trading was sideways, there was volatility, but the 20-day moving average was a good dividing line .
Once this line was broken with a higher- than-average trading volume here, it began to act as resistance. And this area is here, I will say it clearly. This point here tells you that this movement has ended.
Because the 20-day moving average was acting as support. The support level, once broken, becomes a resistance level. This is what is shown here. But it goes up here, then back down to this point .
We don't really know if that represents resistance. It may just be a short break to recover, then it will continue to climb to new record levels. But he didn't . Once it tried twice, it then dropped below the 50 level with a large trading volume.
That told us that this movement was over and you should move away. Okay, that's acceptable. You know, retrospective analysis always seems very sophisticated. But in the meantime, this stock has been trading in a series of higher lows and a flat top here.
So I'll show you , if you'll excuse me, what I'm looking at here. Just look at the green boxes. Good. This is a diagram about price clusters here. And you can see that it is at higher levels.
Such a box that contains all these price pools is here. Then we move here. Draw it from here down to there. This is the next box, higher bottom. Then next, a slightly higher peak and a higher trough as well.
So this is what the base looks like when you like to draw boxes like me. Therefore, he is just breaking this rule. We saw a lot of traffic here on Friday. And that was it; there were a lot of forced purchases at the end of the day.
I mentioned this to our members yesterday to prevent you from being drawn into it. This is what happens when a stock is added to the S&P 100 index. At the end of the day, some rebalancing takes place .
The funds that are required to buy the stock actually buy it. This is also why Nike's stock fell sharply at the same time. By the way, Nike is very bad. Just my personal opinion .
But I'm sure Dylan Mulvaney is still dancing to that tune . Anyway, let's get back on track. So, there was a lot of movement here. Very significant movement today for the moment.
Then he moved sideways. But on Monday , this was the sequel. This is an important concept in trading, guys. At the end of the day on Friday, you can look and see what caused that big movement, and you can see that quite easily.
Damn, it's just a rebalancing of the index. They had to buy the stock, and they had to buy it on Friday. So, this means that the purchasing process has ended. Therefore, the stock will definitely fall on Monday.
There is no reason for anyone to buy it. This was not a real step, there was no actual movement here. It wasn't like saying, "Look, they're actually buying the stock ." I must participate in this movement.
No, you reach this conclusion on Friday and say, "No, that's enough." This should be avoided . Well, that would be the wrong conclusion. It would be a simple conclusion, but that is why it is a false conclusion.
Because the market is bigger than just algorithms that rebalance indicators. It goes much further than that. So , even though this was a rebalancing and with a very large trading volume, a really large volume, and even though it was a rebalancing of the index, you know that you are going to get some kind of follow-on buying the next day.
This is how markets work because trading is ultimately controlled by humans. Even algorithms receive their instructions from someone. So, you will see a rise the next day. The real question is: Will this rise continue?
And so, boom. This is what we saw on Monday. An upward movement. I don't think I remember exactly what it was. impossible. Um, I don't think this was a big deal. Yes, it wasn't even a 2% increase.
But almost immediately afterward , it took some time, but this thing quickly dropped below the volume- weighted average price . My instructions to our traders were: "Once the stock opens, stay away from it ."
It is something you would only consider buying if the stock stayed above the volume-weighted average price and if it stayed above the opening gap , the opening price which was 18.25.
Well, he didn't do that. This was very clear, no, it's not my deal. Then you sit here and wait for the next day, and that will be today. But the question remains . Will the stock rise above this level again?
Because if it does not rise above this opening price, then by definition it is still mired in a state of oversupply. So, today it remained above this level. It rose even further with the increase in trading volume.
That's why I put this stock on the active trading list. I think SanDisk is achieving a very clear breakthrough. They announce their earnings on November 5th,
这个频道对 $SNDK 的历次判断
Stock Market Mentor 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。