长期看好SNOW，因其作为关键AI数据层；持仓设有止损以应对业绩不佳的风险。
逐段跳播
Snowflake的财报即将发布，好吧，那么，有一堆财报。
Snowflake earnings coming and well, all right. So, there's a bunch of earnings.
Josh，在我们进入Snow之前，这显然是你的领域，不是我的。Snow（Snowflake）的股票表现非常出色，Dell 在财报发布前也是如此。
Josh before before we get into Snow, which is obviously your your beat, not mine. Snow the stock has performed exceptionally well as has Dell into the print.
这就是为什么我想谈谈 Snow。我在本季度期间买入了该股。我没有买在最低点。那不是我的风格。那不是我所做的。我买突破。我做到了。我成功了。我仍然做多。我用止损单跟踪它。如果明晚的报告是灾难性的，它不会困扰我。我只会退出。
Here's why I want to talk about snow. I bought the stock during the course of this quarter. Um I did not buy the low. That's not my my thing. That's not what I do. I buy breakouts. And I got it. I nailed it. I'm still long. I am trailing it with a stop. If tomorrow night's report is apocalyptic, it's not going to bother me. I'll just I'll be out.
但我相信 Snow 已经悄然成为整个 AI 分层蛋糕中最重要的层级之一。我们预览这个名字的原因是因为上次他们报告时，股价爆炸了。第二天上涨了 38%。
but I believe that snow has become on the DL one of the most important layers of the whole AI layer cake. The reason why we're previewing this name um is because the last time they reported, the stock [ __ ] exploded. It went up 38% the next day.
就像真的来了，超出预期，提高指引，然后让所有人注意。这是真正发生的事情。你想做 Agentic 吗？恭喜。你将就在数据仓库里做。你不会复制数据。你不会把你的数据移动到所有这些平台。
LLM 将进入 Snowflake 环境，我们这一层将成为 Agentic 未来的中心。
like literally came in, beat, raise guidance, and then and then put everybody on notice. Here's what's really going on. You want to do a gentic [ __ ] Congratulations. You're going to do it right here in the data warehouse. You're not going to be duplicating data. You're not going to be moving your data around to all these platforms. The LLMs are going to come into the Snowflake environment and we this layer is going to be ground zero for the Agentic future.
他们上次告诉我们，他们有超过 9,000 家企业客户直接在 Snowflake 的数据湖层内使用 Agentic 工作流。所以这不是像他们的想法，也许我们会这样做。他们实际上正在这样做。
They have they told us last time they have over 9,000 corporate customers utilizing Agentic workflows directly inside of Snowflake's uh uh data lake layer. So this is not like their idea like maybe we'll do this. They literally are doing it.
Snowflake 最大的竞争对手是 Databricks，而 Databricks 的增长速度是其两倍。Databricks 实际上上个季度在产品收入上超过了 Snow。是的。
Databricks 增长 65%，而 Snow 的增长率约为 32%。他们的增长速度是其两倍。
Snowflake's biggest competitor is Datab Bricks and Data Bricks is growing twice as fast. Data Bricks actually surpassed Snow on product revenue last quarter for the f Yes. Data Bricks is growing 65% versus Snow's growth rate is like 32%. They're growing twice as fast.
这是两种不同架构之间的战斗。Snow 建立在 SQL 之上。这些是行和列。这就像大多数结构化数据一样，存在于湖中。而 Snow 是 SQL 领域的王者。这之所以相关，是因为大多数大公司的数据就是这样结构的。
it's a battle between two different types of architecture. Snow is built on SQL SQL. These are rows and columns. This is like how most data structured data is uh lives in a lake. And snow is the king in SQL. And the reason that's relevant is most large corporations that's how their data is structured.
那么谁使用 Snowflake？大公司的业务分析师、商业智能人员。他们与托管在 Snow 的 SQL 数据库交互。
So what who uses snowflake? Business analysts, business intelligence people at large companies. They interact with the SQL database that is hosted at snow.
两个平台都在做的是互相复制。所以现在你看到 Databricks 试图更多地进入 SQL，以与所有这些公司以及他们实际做事的方式同步。相反，你看到 Snow 更深入地进入机器学习，以便他们可以挑战 Databricks 的非结构化数据。
what both platforms are doing is copying each other. So now you see data bricks trying to get more into SQL to sync up with all these companies and the way that they actually do things. And conversely you see snow going more heavily into machine learning so that they can challenge data bricks for unstructured data.
而企业保存数据的方式，一百万年来都是 SQL，而那是 Snow 的王者之地。该股从 4 月低点上涨了 164%。它非常像 CrowdStrike（我也持有）以及许多其他软件名称一样，在春季的 SaaS 灾难中被卷入其中。
Whereas the way corporations have been keeping data for a million years, that's SQL and that's where snow is the king. this stock is up 164% from the April low. It very much got caught up just like CrowdStrike, which I also own, and many other software names in the SAS apocalypse this spring.
显然，当他们在 5 月发布那份收益报告时，他们迅速结束了那一切。该股在报告后的第二天再次飙升了近 40%，这是自上市以来最好的收益反应。与许多做流星股不同，它几乎没有回吐。它继续攀升。这对投资者来说是一个非常强大的信号。
And obviously when they put that earnings report out in May, they put an end to that [ __ ] fast. The stock again the day after they reported ripped almost 40% uh the best earnings reaction since it came public. And unlike many stocks that do the shooting star thing, it gave almost nothing back. It continued to ramp. And that is such a powerful signal for for um investors.
本季度的共识是产品收入 14.8 亿美元，那将是 30% 的同比增长。显然，任何上行我们都知道会被有利对待。调整后收益 45 美分，高于一年前的 35 美分。
The the consensus for this quarter, product revenue 1.48 billion, that would be 30% year-over-year growth. Obviously, any upside on that we know will be treated favorably. Adjusted earnings 45 cents up from 35 cents a year ago.
市场预期与公司自己的指引之间存在很大的差距，我觉得这很有趣。所以，我刚告诉你共识是 14.8 亿。Snowflake 在 Q1 报告后的自己的指引只有 10.3 亿。所以，市场比公司的指引高出大约 5 亿美元。
there's a really wide gap between where the street is and what the company's own guidance is, which I find interesting. So, I just told you the consensus is 1.48. Snowflake's own guidance after that Q1 report is only 1.03 billion. So, the street is like half a billion dollars ahead of the company's guidance.
他们上个季度超出了 3 亿美元。所以，管理层肯定有所保留。
they beat by 300 million last quarter. So, management definitely sandbagged.
问题是，我们上个季度看到的 AI 拐点是一次性的奇迹，还是新常态的一部分？所以，公司会说，不，你不明白，我们现在已经向客户证明了他们可以在我们的平台上做 AI 工作流和 Agentic 的东西，我们正在拐点。所以这是一个很大的开放性问题。
the question is that AI inflection that we saw last quarter was that a one- hit wonder or is that part of a new so I the company would say no you don't understand we have now made the case to our customers that they can do the AI workflows and the agentic stuff right here on our platform we're inflecting so that's a a big open question
经营这家公司的人 Ramaswami 以前经营 Google 搜索。这是一个真正的人，他们请来取代 Frank Slootman，后者是他们上市时的 CEO。
the guy running this company Ramaswami formerly ran Google search this is like a this is a real guy that they brought in to replace Frank Slutman who was the CEO when they went public.
他们曾经称之为 Cortex 副驾驶，但所有客户都说 Coco，所以他们实际上已经改了名字。这是未来增长战略的关键。这是 AI 推理层，让企业可以直接使用 Snowflake 数据运行 LLM 和 Agentic 工作流，而不是将其发送给外部提供商。
They used to call this the Cortex co-pilot but all the customers say Coco so they actually have changed the name. Um this is the key to the growth strategy going forward. This is the AI inference layer that lets enterprises run LLM and Agentic workflows directly with Snowflake data rather than sending it out to an external um provider.
RBC 有一位分析师特别指出 Coco 在财报发布前显示出积极且加速的势头。六月的 Snowflake Summit，也就是他们的用户大会，高度以 Cococentric 为中心，据分析师称，许多产品发布和许多讨论都围绕着持续的增长势头。
There's an analyst at RBC who specifically flagged Coco as showing positive and accelerating momentum ahead of the print. The Snowflake Summit in June, that's like their user conference, was heavily Cococentric and according to the analyst um a lot of the product launches and a lot of the conversation um was was about continued momentum here.
他们与 Amazon Web Services 宣布了一项重大合作，承诺投入 60 亿美元，但那是 Snowflake 在亚马逊上的支出。所以，这对 Snowflake 来说不是收入交易，但市场认为，如果他们不需要计算能力，就不会做出这样的承诺。因此，该股在该消息公布后实际上上涨了。
They had a massive announcement with Amazon Web Services, a $6 billion commitment, but that's Snowflake spending at Amazon. So, that's not a revenue deal for Snowflake, but they would not have made that commitment if they didn't need the compute is the way that the street took it. So, the stock actually rallied on that announcement.
更高的门槛。再说一次，该股从四月的低点已经大幅上涨。分析师平均目标价是 317，实际上低于当前交易价格。尽管有些目标价要高得多，但大多数分析师并没有因为上次业绩出色就自动给出 400 的目标价。
higher bar. Again, the stock's up huge from its April lows. Um the average analyst price target is 317 which is actually lower than where it trades. Even though there are some targets much much higher the average most analysts did not automatically come in at 400 because they had a great quarter um last time.
最后，126% 的净收入留存率对软件股来说非常健康，但并未加速。所以看空的观点是，如果 AI 追加销售像所有这些产品发布所暗示的那样强劲，为什么净收入留存率没有更高。这就是在剔除客户流失后的情况。
也就是现有客户和新客户的增长，减去任何离开的客户。为什么这个数字不是更高？如果这个数字是 130% 或更好。这就是你如何看待一家 SaaS 公司的进展。我认为这将是该股的上行空间。
Last thing the net revenue retention of 126% is very healthy for a software stock but it's not accelerating. So the bearish argument is well if AI upsells are working as strongly as all these product announcements suggest why isn't the net revenue retention. So that's like um xing out the churn. So it's growth of existing customers and new customers netting out any customers that have left. Why isn't that a higher number? If that number is 130% or better. So this is how you look at a SAS company's progress. Um, that's I think that's gonna be upside for for the stock.
华尔街的最高目标价似乎是 Jeff 的 385。所以从这里上涨的空间并不疯狂。而且，很多分析师的目标价都集中在当前交易价格略下方的位置。
The high target on the street looks like it's Jeff at 385. So that's not like crazy upside from here. And again, a lot of the analysts are clustering just below where where it's currently trading.
您如何看待这个故事对整个 AI 故事的重要性，以及看到一家软件公司完全摆脱了那场 SaaS 末日讨论？
What are your thoughts on the importance of this story to the overall AI story and just seeing a software company completely jailbreak itself out of that whole SAS apocalypse um conversation?
Snowflake。显然，你比我懂得多得多，但我确实喜欢这是软件的转折点之一。我确实喜欢这是软件的转折点之一，当时每个人都说：“好吧，AI 不会对所有人都是一切。你实际上无法用这样的公司做到你能做到的事情。”
Snowflake. Obviously, you know a lot more than I do, but I do love that this was one of the inflection points for software I do love that this was one of the inflection points for software where everybody said, "All right, AI is not going to be all things to all people. you actually can't do what you can do with companies like these.
他说在等什么
这个频道对 $SNOW 的历次判断
The Compound 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。