SNOW太贵，不宜买入；其交易价格约为4.5倍PEG和186倍市盈率。
逐段跳播
Snowflake 和博通刚刚发布了财报，我们将把这些数据中的一些与硬件和软件领域的各种机会进行比较。
Snowflake and Broadcom have just released their earnings , and we will be comparing some of these figures with various opportunities in the hardware and software sectors.
当然，还有 Snowflake 股价的疯狂飙升。财报公布后，Snowflake 的股价在大约 10 秒内上涨了 20%。
Then of course there was this crazy explosion in the " Snowflake" stock. Snowflake's stock jumped 20% in approximately 10 seconds after the earnings announcement.
感觉像是：等等，这不可能基于基本面。这看起来像是匆忙回补空头头寸。
It felt like: Wait a minute. This cannot be based on the fundamentals. It looks like a scramble to cover short selling positions .
好的，我们有基本情况，比如：Snowflake 的产品收入增长了 3.76%。实际上，增长并不多，但他们的调整后每股收益在第二季度超出了 37%。这是一个大事件。
Okay, we have the basics like: "Hey , Snowflake product revenues increased by 3.76%." Actually, not by that much, but their adjusted earnings per share outperformed by 37% in the second quarter. This is a big deal.
它处于较贵的一侧。它的交易方式类似于具有经常性年收入的科技股。所以，Snowflake 在这里。Snowflake 很有趣。Snowflake 在收入层面有稳定的定价权，但实际上，它在运营费用方面增强了定价权。
虽然总收入和费用增长约 35%，但其行政和一般成本以及运营费用仅增长 16%。换句话说，每增加一美元的收入增长，他们的支出只增长 50 美分。这种差异非常诱人。它只在增长方面有所扩展。所以，这很好。这是定价权的提升。
It is on the more expensive side. It trades like a tech- rich stock with recurring annual revenues . So, Snowflake is here. Snowflake is interesting. Snowflake has stable pricing power at the revenue level, but in reality, it increases its pricing power at its operating expenses. While total revenues and expenses increase by about 35%, its administrative and general costs and operating expenses increase by only 16%. In other words, for every dollar of additional money growth, they see spending grow by only 50 cents . This difference is very tempting. It expands somewhat on the growth side only. So, this is great. This is an increase in pricing power.
然而，如果我们从现金流收益率的角度来看这家公司的其余部分，这家公司的现金流收益率不到 1%。我们说的是大约 0.9%，而这家公司在经历了我们看到的飙升后，市值达到 1200 亿或 1300 亿美元。
因此，他们的现金流有些名义上的。他们并没有借钱。他们在过去六个月里回购了股票。所以，那将是在上个季度。他们在上个季度没有回购任何股票。
However, if we look at the rest of the company in terms of cash flow yield, this company has a cash flow yield of less than 1%. We are talking about perhaps 0.9% compared to this company, which is worth $120 or $130 billion after the surge we have seen. Therefore, their cash flows are somewhat nominal. It's not like they're borrowing. They have repurchased shares in the past six months. So, that will be in the last quarter. They did not repurchase any shares in the last quarter here.
关于他们的资产负债表，让我们提取一下。它会立即出现。我有 23 亿美元现金，加上另外 7.18 亿美元的应收账款。我有足够的钱来支付我有的 11 亿美元账单。我这里大约有 30 亿美元。
你可以偿还几乎所有的长期债务。这不是最奇妙的事情。他们没有无限的资金来收购其他公司或进行其他交易。这并不是说他们坐拥堡垒来抵御批评。但是，嗯，你知道，他们实际上没有债务；他们有的是一个从经营亏损转向盈利的公司。
Regarding their balance sheet , let's extract it. It will appear immediately. I have $2.3 billion in cash plus another $718 million in accounts receivable. I have plenty of money to pay off the $1.1 billion in bills I have. I have about $3 billion here. You can pay off almost all of your long-term debt. Not the most wonderful thing. They do not have unlimited funds to buy other companies or make other deals. It's not as if they're sitting on a fortress against criticism. But, well, you know, they don't really have debt; what they do have is a company that's expanding from an operating loss to a profit.
我认为这里发生的事情是，他们正在经历一个做空阶段，因为我认为人们在看并说，你知道，我认为这很简单。你好，我对软件公司感到悲观。我会做空谁？让我找一些市盈率无限高的软件公司。哦，好吧。
我将简单地使用后续的盈利倍数。啊，哦，多么美妙。我只会寻找所有亏损的公司，然后做空它们。这家公司以高做空利率进入财报期。回补基于此的做空利息大约需要四天。大约四天。3.89 天。这太多了。这家公司实际上预计将实现盈利。
And I think what's happening here is that they're going through a short-selling phase because I think people are looking and saying, you know, I think it's very simple. Hello, I'm pessimistic about software companies. Who will I be short selling ? Let me find some software companies that are trading at infinite price-to-earnings ratios. oh well . I will simply use the subsequent earnings multiple. Ah, oh, how wonderful. I will only look for all the losing companies and I will sell them short. This company entered the earnings announcement period with high short selling interest rates. It takes about four days to cover the interest on the short selling that is based on it. Approximately four days . 3.89 days. That's too much. The company is actually expected to become profitable.
但让我们对 Snowflake 进行评估。所以，如果我评估 Snowflake，我得到的盈利预测是 1.96 美元。他们的交易价格是多少？大约 365 除以 1.96。这个东西的市盈率是 186 倍，即使有盈利预测，即达到正收益。
预计未来四年平均年增长 41%，这相当于大约 4.5 的市盈率相对盈利增长比率（PEG）。这很贵。正如我所说，它们的交易方式像网络安全公司。
But let's conduct an assessment of Snowflake here. So, if I evaluate Snoflake, I get an earnings forecast of $1.96. What are they traded for? Approximately 365 divided by 1.96 . This thing is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 186 times, even with earnings forecasts, i.e., reaching positive earnings. With projected growth of 41% over the next four years on average annually, this amounts to a price-to-earnings-to-growth ( PEG) ratio of approximately 4.5. This is expensive. As I said, they are traded like cybersecurity companies.
我不持有任何 Snowflake 的股票。而且它涨了很多。但我不想买入 Snowflake，因为对我来说，它太贵了，而且它没有网络安全公司所具有的网络安全端点管理功能。所以，我不知道你是否能证明该公司的估值合理。
我的意思是，它很棒，涨了很多，但对我来说太贵了，而且我对那些功能逐渐消失有疑问。
I don't own anything in Snowflake. And it's going up a lot . But I didn't want to buy Snowflake because, to me, it's too expensive and it doesn't have the cybersecurity endpoint management feature that cybersecurity companies have . So, I don't know if you can justify that valuation for that company. I mean, it's great, it's going up a lot, but it was too expensive for me and I have questions about those features fading away.
而 Salesforce，或者抱歉，Snowflake 的交易价格大约在 4.5 倍左右，这太疯狂了。
Whereas Salesforce or, sorry, Snowflake is trading at around 4.5x or whatever, which is crazy.
UI Path 宣布与 Snowflake 建立合作伙伴关系。
UI Path announces a partnership with Snowflake.
如你所知，Snowflake 经历了一次短暂、轻微的压力。我真的不喜欢那家公司。
As you know, "Snowflake" experienced a brief, slight pressure. I really don't like that company .
这个频道对 $SNOW 的历次判断
Meet Kevin 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。