做多 SOC 的逻辑依赖双重催化剂：油价飙升提供下行保护/对冲，以及即将投运的第二座海上平台推动 20-30% 的上行空间。
逐段跳播
我明白了。伙计们，我喜欢做多 SOC。它让我内心感到温暖和酥麻。我是说，我非常高兴能做多 SOC。我知道它还没奏效。看看日线图。就像，Ben，你在说什么，但是，我一直说，Ben，你在说什么？
我知道这是一家石油钻探公司，海上钻探公司，在加州近海。
And I got this. I love being long SOC, guys. I just it makes me feel all warm and tingly inside. I mean, I'm so happy to be long SOC. I know it hasn't worked. Look at the daily chart.
Like, Ben, what are you talking about, but um this >> I keep saying, Ben, what are you talking about? >> I know this is an oil drilling uh company, offshore drilling company, offshore California.
哦，是的。你知道，这里有两条赢的路径。我觉得我有两条赢的路径。如果油价再次飙升，那应该会帮助 SOC。另一条赢的路径是，即使油价不飙升，即使它下跌，即使它一路跌到 50 DMA，我甚至敢说即使它跌破 50 DMA，SOC 拥有的是一个随时可能到来的重大催化剂，他们将开设第二个海上钻探平台。
它原定于九月开放。现在已经是 9 月 23 日了。所以，我们可能会看到 SOC 本月发布一份重大的新闻稿。我做了完整的分析。我做了资本结构分析和基本面估值分析等等。我会说现在公允价值大概在五块左右，它应该在这上面，在 550 和这个缺口之间的某个位置，这才是该股现在应该交易的位置。
然后如果他们开放第二个平台，公允价值可能高达 9 美元。现在因为它被低估了，我们这里有一个情绪折价。所以，我不指望当第二个平台开放时该股会一路涨到 200 DMA，但我确实认为它能进入这个缺口，对吧？
所以，当他们宣布第二个平台开放时，540 到 690 可能进入视野，那可能今天发生，可能明天发生，可能在本月底前发生。现在，他们之前已经错过过一次自己的截止日期。一个月前的最新指引是会在九月。
所以，那相当接近了，我认为他们有很大机会赶上，如果延迟也许一周左右。所以我认为你会看到第二个石油平台开放，然后你得到大概 20% 到 30% 的涨幅。这就是我喜欢它的原因，因为我觉得同时它是对冲，做多石油的对冲。
我同时拥有这个对冲，又有催化剂带来的可选上行空间，可以在一天内让股价飙升 20% 到 30%。所以是的，我就是喜欢做多 SOC。
>> Oh, yeah. You know, uh you got two ways to win here. I feel like I have two ways to win. If oil spikes up again, that should help SOC. And the other way to win, even if oil doesn't spike up, even if it spikes down, even if it goes all the way to the 50 DMA, I would say dare say even if it goes below the 50 DMA, what you have with SOC is a major catalyst coming any day where they're going to be opening a second offshore drilling platform.
It's due to open in September. It's now September 23rd. All right. So, we're looking at a potentially a big press release coming out from SOC um this month. And I did the whole work up on this.
I did the cap structure analysis and the fundamental valuation analysis and everything. And um I would say right now fair value is probably like in the five it should be up here somewhere between 550 and and this gap here is where the stock should be trading right now.
And then if they open the second platform the fair value could go like as high as $9. Now because it's undervalued we have a sentiment discount here. So, I'm not expecting the stock to trade all the way to the 200 DMA when they open the second platform, but I do think it can get into this gap, right?
So, 540 to 690 could be in play when they announced the second platform opening and that could happen today, could happen tomorrow, could happen by the end of this month. Now, they have missed the deadline once before their own deadline.
All right. Uh, latest guidance only from a month ago was it would be September. So, that's, you know, pretty close in, you know, I think there's a fair chance they'll hit that and if it's delayed maybe by a week or so.
So I think you're going to see that second oil platform opening and you get like a 20 30%. That's why I like this because I feel like at the same time that it's a hedge right kind of long oil.
I got this hedge at the same time I have optionality upside with a catalyst that can send the stock soaring 20 30% in a day. So yeah, I just love being long so
老兄。我想我在这里会加仓更多 SOC。让我看看我能不能，让我看看。我刚买了更多这些。我刚买了更多。老兄，我喜欢这个风险。我非常高兴。让我告诉你我这里的持仓。我现在在 SOC 看涨期权上有 4% 的配置。
我很少会配到那么高。通常我做看涨期权时最多也就 1% 到 2%。偶尔我会到 4% 到 5%。但这些是一月份的，所以我觉得还行，而且它们是价内的。所以，我有一月份的 4 美元看涨期权。
我刚以 120 美元买了更多。看看这些。1 月 15 日，我在我的 Weeble 账户里也有一些。你能看出来。但 Weeble 里我有六个。所以，大概就是这里的 4 美元看涨期权，如你所见，我刚以 120 美元又买了 50 份。
之前买的那些我是以 125 美元买的。所以，这里稍微摊低了一点成本。所以，盈亏平衡点在 520 美元。我喜欢这个，因为这给了我一点杠杆。那给了我九月、十月、十一月。那是四个月吗？
九月到十月。四个月。那给了我四个月的时间，让他们开放这个平台，这个平台本应本月开放，而且只要油价不崩盘，那个平台开放，那么我预计该股至少会交易在 544，而我现在刚买的那些看涨期权的盈亏平衡点是 520。
所以我喜欢这个风险回报比。我刚加仓了更多，同时看着 USO 这边到底发生了什么。
>> dude. I think I'm going to get more SOC here. Um, let me see if I can Let me see. >> I just bought more of these. I just bought more. Dude, I I love this risk. Um, I'm very happy.
Let me Let me tell you what I have here. I now have a 4% allocation in SOC calls. Once in a blue moon I go that high. I usually when I do calls I'm like one two% max. Now once in a while I go four 5%.
But these are January so I feel okay and they're in the money. So I got January $4 calls. Um I just bought more for $120. Check these out. January 15th and I have some my Weeble account too.
You can tell. But uh the Weeble I have six. So, or so the $4 calls here right here, as you can see it, I just bought 50 more at a $120. Um, the other ones I bought before I bought a $125.
So, a little bit of an average down here. So, break even at $520. I love that because that gives me um >> little leverage. >> That gives me September, October, November. Is that four months?
September to October. Four. That gives me four months. All right. for uh them to open this platform which is supposed to open this month and again and as long as oil prices don't collapse and that platform opens then I expect the stock to be trading at at least 544 and my break even on those calls right now are 520 on the ones I just bought.
So I love this riskreward. I just bought more of it with looking at what the heck is happening with USO over here.
是的。买入了。我持有的是 1 月份的 5 美元。我想我们买入的就是那个。我想是在我风险更高的 Weeble 账户里。我实际上持有的是 6 美元。
>> Yeah. picked up. I'm in the $5 for January. I think it is that we picked up. >> I think in me my riskier Weeble account. I'm in the $6 actually.
在我那个较大的账户里，我在 4 美元时进入了盈利状态。那就是 SOC。
>> In my bigger account, I went in the money at $4. So that's SOC.
就是这样。这基本上就是我现在脑子里想的全部：做多 Meta，做空 IWM 作为对冲。用 SOC 做对冲，同时借助某个催化剂获得一些上行期权价值。
>> That's it, man. That's like kind of all that's on my mind here is long meta, short IWM as a hedge. Got the SOC hedge with some upside optionality on a catalyst.
观察点
这个频道对 $SOC 的历次判断
Benzinga 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。