$SOFI

鉴于强劲的增长和盈利能力的改善,SoFi相对于其2028年目标被低估。

看涨他说的是几年内
2 Hated Growth Stocks Down Right Now — Should You Buy?
The Motley Fool发布 2026-09-02 · 22 段内容
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22 段内容
2:289:52

今天我要从我最喜欢的公司之一开始讲起,那就是 SoFi。我知道,每当我们谈论 SoFi Technologies 时,人们总会自动想:“哦,一家银行有什么好关注的?”那么,让我这么说吧:就算它只是一家银行,它也是一家市值 230 亿美元、市盈率(TTM)37.6 倍的银行,对于银行来说这相当昂贵。

远期市盈率为 24.5 倍,虽然这里更便宜,但若只是一家银行,可能还是太贵了。

Yeah, and so I'll start off today with one of my favorite companies out there, which is SoFi. Now, I know whenever we talk about SoFi Technologies, people automatically think, "Oh, what's so interesting about a bank?" Well, let me just say, you know what? Let's say it is only a bank. It is only a bank that's worth $23 billion, a trailing PE of 37.6 times, which for banks is quite expensive. A forward PE of 24.5 times, which here as well, it is cheaper, but for just a bank, it is maybe too expensive.

SoFi 与传统银行不同,它今年以 30% 的速度增长。我的意思是,他们预计到 2028 年的复合年增长率约为 30%,甚至可能更高。每股收益(EPS)实际上预计到 2028 年也会以比这快得多的速度增长。

Well, the thing with a SoFi is that, unlike traditional banks, this one is growing at 30% this year. I mean, they they project it to grow at a compound annual growth rate through 2028 at around 30%, maybe even more. EPS EPS is actually expected to grow much faster than that also through 2028.

所以,你可以称它为银行,我不介意。但某些公司之所以能获得更高的估值倍数或溢价,是因为它们增长得更快。这是一家增长更快、同时盈利能力越来越强的公司。

And so, you know what? You can call it a bank. I don't mind. But the reason why certain names do get a higher multiple or a premium is because they are growing much faster. This is a company that is growing faster and also becoming more and more profitable.

最近,我们还可以增加一些期权性。我们有稳定币业务,加密货币也回到了平台上。这些都是不错的额外业务。

Now, more recently, we can add some optionality. We have a stablecoin business. We have crypto coming back to the platform as well. Those are nice extras.

如果你看看 SoFi 的每用户平均收入(ARPU)或每客户收入,与大型银行相比,现在仍处于非常非常早期的阶段。他们仍然可以更好地将每个用户变现。

Now, if you look at for example, can use the term here as well average revenue per user or per customer at SoFi, compare that to big banks, it's still very, very early days. They can still monetize each and every user much, much better.

但并非一切都尽如人意,SoFi 并非一切都好,因为公司有一个部门,即技术平台 Galileo。这是他们的专有技术栈,它帮助核心业务变得更好、运转更快,但这曾被一些人称为“金融科技的 AWS”。

然而,这从未实现。增长放缓了,实际上同比出现了下降,但从最近的结果来看,增长或增长的放缓似乎已经触底。

Now, it's not all roses, right? It's not all great at SoFi because there is one segment of the company which is the tech platform Galileo. It's their proprietary technology stack which, okay, helps the core business become a better, move much faster, but this was supposed to be as some called it the AWS of fintech. Well, it never happened. It never happened. Uh growth slowed down, growth actually declined year-over-year, but from the recent results, it seems like growth or the slow in growth has bottomed.

如果上个季度确实触底了,那么我认为这也是对业务的一个额外推动,一个来自业务部门的额外增长推动,而这个部门之前确实令人极度失望,而现在……

And if we did have a a bottom last quarter, then I just see this as, you know what? Here as well, an extra to the business. An extra push for growth that is now coming from a business segment that yes, has been extremely disappointing uh before and right now,

说实话,当我审视 SoFi 时,我已经不再关注技术平台了。我只关注贷款业务,它一直表现极佳,以及金融服务业务,它也增长非常迅速。

I'll be honest when I look at SoFi, I'm not even looking at the tech platform anymore. I'm only looking at, well, the lending side which has been doing extremely well and on the financial services side as well which also has been growing very rapidly.

有趣的是,他们的贷款平台业务,你会认为它属于贷款部门,但并非如此,它属于金融服务部门。贷款平台业务是一种高利润率、低风险类型的业务,而且增长极快,帮助业务快速增长,变得更加盈利。

Now, what's interesting is their loan platform business, you would think it falls under the lending segment, but no, it falls under the financial services segment and the loan platform business is a high margin, lower risk type of a business which is also growing super quickly, helps the business grow fast, become more profitable.

我们有 SoFi Plus,这是一项服务,我知道,又一个订阅服务?是的,但我确实认为,作为会员,你为它支付的价值以及你获得的一切,都是合理的,这也是他们继续将每个用户变现的方式之一,确保用户更多地参与 SoFi 试图构建的生态系统。

We have SoFi Plus which is a the services and I know, another subscription service? Yes, but I do think that the value that you're paying for it as a member, everything that you get, it does make sense, and that's also one of the ways that they continue to monetize each and every user, make sure that the user participates more in the ecosystem that SoFi is trying to build.

现在仍处于非常早期的阶段。我理解有些人只把它看作一家银行。他们有一家银行,这很好,这也是为什么这家公司尽管利率高企,却表现极佳。

It is still very early days. I understand that there are people that only look at it as a bank. They have a bank, which is great, which is why this company is doing extremely well despite high interest rates.

例如,指引方面,他们今年年初时预期降息。指引没有改变。直到上个季度,他们实际上在收入方面上调了指引。尽管他们的前景变得越来越差。对我来说,这恰恰显示了实力。

Guidance, for example, they came into this year expecting rate cuts. Guidance hasn't changed. Until last quarter, they actually increased it revenue-wise. Despite their outlook becoming worse and worse. To me, that just portrays strength.

他们现在预计今年会有一到两次加息。市场似乎也在定价一到两次加息。我们会迎来两次吗?我不知道。我认为我们肯定会迎来一次。但如果只迎来一次,而市场定价了两次,那也不错,因为他们就会超过或至少达到自己的指引。

They're now expecting one to two rate hikes for this year. Seems like the market is pricing in one to two rate hikes. Are we going to get two? I don't know. I think we're definitely going to get one. But if we get only one and they're pricing in two, that's pretty good cuz then they'll just beat or at least meet their own guidance.

从市盈率来看,我认为它目前的交易价格大约是公司自己设定的 2028 年目标的 16 倍。所以,总的来说,这是一只非常便宜的股票。

PE-wise, I think it's trading at around 16 times uh the 2028 target that the company itself has put out. So, all in all, it's a very cheap name.

当然,如果你对拥有银行或金融科技公司不感兴趣,那么它可能不适合你。但如果你喜欢一家高增长、越来越好、越来越盈利,并且在过去几年里执行得非常好的公司——从技术上讲,它本不应该还存在,因为贷款曾是他们业务的重要组成部分,贷款曾是个大问题,所以它本应被淘汰。

但他们确实幸存了下来,并且以一家强大得多的公司走出了困境。所以,我不得不再次将 SoFi 列入名单。

Of course, if you're not interested in owning a bank or a fintech name, then maybe it's not for you. But if you do like a high-growth company that is becoming better and better, more profitable, and has actually executed extremely well over the last couple of years where technically speaking, they shouldn't really be around anymore because lending was a big part of their business before. Was a big problem with lending. So, it should have been left behind. They did survive. They did come out of that situation as a much stronger company. So, I had to put SoFi again here on on the list.

我很高兴你这么做,因为我认为一直有很多争论,比如:他们是金融科技公司还是传统银行?他们不像传统银行那样被估值。我们该如何看待这家公司?我认为你提出的论点非常有力,本质上就是:这家公司的运营方式更像一个垂直整合的技术生态系统,而不是传统银行。

I'm glad you did cuz I think there's been a lot of kind of this debate of okay, are they a fintech, are they a traditional bank? They're not valued like a traditional bank. How do we think about this business? And I think the argument that you put forward is is really strong, and essentially it's that this is a company that operates much more like a vertically integrated tech ecosystem than a traditional bank.

传统银行严重依赖存款利息与贷款利息之间的差额,即净息差。而 SoFi 围绕这种多管齐下的框架来构建其运营,从而能够最大化客户终身价值,并将许多其他成本保持在较低水平。

I mean, you know, traditional banks rely heavily on the difference between the interest they pay on deposits and the interest they earn on loans, which is your net interest margin. And SoFi structures their operations around this kind of multi-pronged framework, where they're able to maximize their customer lifetime value, and then they are able to keep a lot of those other costs more on the lower side.

你提到的贷款部门,一直是他们最大的收入贡献者。它专注于个人贷款、学生贷款再融资、抵押贷款,他们持有贷款以赚取利息,但也会将这些贷款打包成组合,以溢价出售给机构投资者,从而产生费用收入。这样他们也释放了资本来发放新贷款。

And the lending segment, which you mentioned, you know, this has been their largest revenue contributor. It focuses on, you know, personal loans, student loan refinancing, mortgages, and they they hold loans for interest, but then they also package bundles of these loans, they sell them to institutional investors at a premium, and so they generate fee revenue that way. They free up as well capital to issue new loans.

还有金融服务部门,你谈到的,包括支票账户、储蓄账户、信用卡。然后显然还有技术平台 Galileo Technisys,他们主要将核心银行软件、支付处理和 API 基础设施授权给其他金融科技公司、数字银行等。

There's the the financial services segment, right, which you talked about, which is the checking, savings, credit cards. Um and then there's obviously the technology platform, the Galileo Technisys, where they essentially license their core banking software, payment processing, and API infrastructure to other fintech companies and, you know, digital banks and so forth.

我指出这一点,是因为我认为有时人们对他们的业务有何不同存在很多困惑,而我认为这确实凸显了你可以如何将其与传统银行区分开来。而且,他们传统上瞄准的是高收入、技术前沿的消费者。这往往也让他们比传统银行更具韧性,除了他们的商业模式之外。

And I point this out because I do think there's sometimes a lot of confusion about what makes their business different, and I think this really [clears throat] highlights where you can kind of separate it from a traditional bank. And you know, they've traditionally targeted higher-income tech-forward consumers. That's tended to give them a bit of a more resilient profile as well than traditional banks in addition to their business model.

对我来说,我在这里关注的风险是,它们并不真正特定于业务。你想想消费信用卡和个人贷款支付,这些支付的逾期率在全国范围内一直在悄悄上升。所以,这可能会考验SoFi的主要客户群体。如果我们看到一些较大的机构买家可能暂停以目前的速度购买贷款,那也可能是需要关注的一个因素。

For me, the risks that I watch here are, you know, they're not all really specific to the business. I mean, you think about consumer credit card and personal loan payments have been the lateness of those has been quietly kind of ticking upward across the country. So, that could test SoFi's kind of prime demographic. If we see a scenario where some of the bigger institutional buyers maybe pause buying loans at the pace they are, that could also be an element to watch.

还有一件事,持有联邦银行章程,他们有很多政府资本比率要求。因为他们持有该章程,所以会受到更严格的审查。所以,所有这些事情,我认为都是需要关注的风险,但我确实认为,如果你关注金融科技领域和传统银行领域,并希望利用更现代版本的框架,这是一个非常有趣的业务。

Another thing, too, I mean, holding a federal banking charter, they have a lot of, you know, government capital ratio requirements. There's much more intense scrutiny that happens because they hold that charter. So, all of these things, I think, are risks to watch, but I do think it's a really interesting business if you're looking at interest at both the fintech space and the traditional banking space and are wanting to maybe capitalize on a more modern version of that framework.

他说在等什么

伽利略科技平台增长企稳
他没有说用什么来检验
加息与指引的对比
他没有说用什么来检验

这个频道对 $SOFI 的历次判断

The Motley Fool 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。

2026-09-02看涨本条
今天我要从我最喜欢的公司之一开始讲起,那就是 SoFi。
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