SOXX 在经历回调后于 200 日移动均线附近走强；但若跌破该水平，说话者更倾向于买入个股半导体股票而非该 ETF 本身。

the SOXX. This is the semiconductor ETF. This is the the semiconductor index here. You can kind of pull it up if it wants to go there. Nice. So, this is the semiconductor index. What is this? This is an ETF that is made up of I think it's 30 or so 25 30 of the the largest, biggest, most profitable and exciting semiconductor companies.

So, it's it's a ton of cool names that we all know and love, but it's also full of some names that have had a little bit of exuberance in my humble opinion. And so, as we continue to kind of go down through these charts, we come across this one. This chart was a chart that I believe I shared back in gosh, late June, early July. Had to have been late June, early July, maybe mid July. But regardless, this is a chart that I had shared that was sort of a warning.

Historically speaking, semiconductor stocks have have been very cyclical in nature, right? They make a lot of money in a short period of time and then they go through a lull. Then they make a lot of money in a short period of time as people upgrade the chips. Then they go into sort of a lull. And so the stock market understands this. And so when the stock market sees the semiconductor industries profit margins go up because they're, you know, making a lot of money in a short period of time, the stock market assigns less value to the companies. So the essentially this purple line here is the price to sales ratio, which is essentially how much I'm paying for the stock in relation to how much revenue they make. So as margins go up, price to sales goes down because to to keep things sort of like flat and normal here. So again, you can see this throughout history. Profits went up here, price to sales went down, profits went up here, price to sales went down. But here in 2025 and specifically in the back half now of 2026, we've seen the opposite happen. We saw both profit margins and go up, but also the valuations of these companies go up.

But that doesn't mean that sometimes investors get a little too excited that investors get ahead of themselves. And back in I think it was like mid June, maybe it was early June, you know, if you've been following us for a while, you have owned the SMH ETF, right? You have owned the SOXX ETF. I mean, over a 5year period of time, it's just been trending up and to the right.

But back in June, I was like, whoa. Hey guys, be careful here because in the months of April and May, th this momentum that we've experienced in these semiconductor stocks, I think investors are getting ahead of themselves. I think some investors are really starting to look at these stocks as they're always going to make profits and forever and this like it's, you know, when investors start saying, "Wait a second. Uh, is this time different?" Right? We've heard that phrase, "Is this time different?" When they start saying that, your ear should perk up and you should start to be a little little uh on your heels there.

Those are all names inside of this ETF. So, it's like, okay, cool. So, if I own the ETF, I've got some of those dams rock and roll. Yes. But also, and this is why I was sort of warning you all to be careful here because what caused a 30% correction is there were also some names in this portfolio.

And so that's essentially the whole thesis I was sharing out over the course of call it late May, early June. We were talking about the SOXX ETF and why it's important to one know what you own, but two understand do investors right now think that this time is different. Am should I own these names? What's going on? Do I chase these names? Some of these names are up 100, 200, 300%.

People should own the semiconductor industry. We always encourage people like Intel's a cool company, right? You want to own this stuff, but but price, the price you pay is equally as important, if not more important than what you own.

And I'm not saying that that's going to happen for some of these uh semiconductor stocks. Like they might not come back down to this blue line. We might not see that because again the blue line is an average of like a pre-ai era, right? It includes that era. But when it's this much above the blue line like it was in June and July, you got to be asking yourself, okay, wait a second. Do I need to be chasing these names and buying these names or should I take a level-headed approach and dollar cost average or better understand, you know, where is the, you know, fair market value for a stock that I'm interested in versus getting emotional and and being emotional with your money.

Now, luckily, a lot of the hype has died down for SOXX. You know, we saw this fall, I think it was 30% in the course of five weeks there, June 22nd to July 29th. Had a nice little bit of a rebound, and now the bottoming is starting to kind of take place here. We saw a little bit of strength this week, which is cool. Um, I'm getting now a lot more encouraged, honestly, about the SOXX ETF.

I I don't think as I kind of come back here, delete some of this because it seems like the 200 day moving average has continued to go up, which it does because it's moving, right? But it's like I I think what could happen with the SOXX, which would be good for semiconductors, is we might see a little bit more of this and then as we see that that 200 day moving average is going to come up to it, which again, it's like, okay, great. Now it's like back to where we started. We're back to the 200 day moving average. Time to go back off for the next leg higher. And you know, maybe something like that happens. I have no idea next year.

And so we're seeing here with SOXX a little bit more strength than we saw with ARK, which is really good because I would consider SOXX one of those retail memes semiconductors. Everyone's buying this stuff right now. So, as long as this strength can continue and as long as we can hold above this 200 day moving average, which is this blue line, that is the goal.

And let's say we don't. Let's say that SOXX breaks below the 200 day moving average. Awesome. I'm going to go buy so much more Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom, and Micron at a discount. It's going to be incredible. But notice I didn't say more SOXX or more SMH. I said the specific names inside of this that I'm specifically excited about.