SPCX 技术面看涨,一旦突破 155 阻力位,有望在数日内突破至 174。
逐段跳播
SpaceX 现在看起来绝对漂亮,SanDisk 看起来也快要真正爆发了,今天已经涨了将近 7%,但让我们先从 SpaceX 说起,因为这显然是我们观众——我们的观众叫 dour,我不知道这说明散户交易者和投资者什么,但 T3 live 的观众目前最痴迷的头号股票毫无疑问就是 SpaceX。
space looks SpaceX looks absolutely beautiful right now and SanDisk also looks like it's about to really go crazy it's it's up almost 7% today but um let's start with SpaceX because this is obviously our our audience is named dour Like I don't know what it says about retailing traders and investors but like by far the T3 live audience the number one stock they are obsessed with right now is SpaceX.
Sammy,我先从你开始,因为你一直在头号标的的通讯里大举加仓这个。现在作为技术分析专家,我要说它就是一路向右上走,我认为这是好事。我说得对吗?我知道,但你看它也一直被打回来,比如它昨天冲上去创了新高,突破了日线底部的顶部,然后就被打了下来,尽管昨天是非常非常看涨的一天。
所以最终当它试图走低时,你知道,被打回来又被买回。所以,我认为它会更高,但它非常慢——我的意思是,我希望它别这么拖泥带水。每一天,每一天日线图上都像带着一根尾巴。在日线柱上,有一根尾巴。
所以我希望它别这样,我希望它更明确地看涨一点。我的意思是,我在里面,我有点担心,因为它不断出现这些反转柱,像昨天那根、前一天、再前一天。它们都像是十字星或反转柱。所以希望它最终能走高。
我提高了——我直接把止损提高到了红柱的低点,也就是日线图上的 14280。所以我没有图表。我的意思是,我没在展示我的图表。我可以展示,但对我来说这不是最漂亮的图表。它本来看着挺漂亮,但它不是最漂亮的。
So Sammy I will start with you since you've been loading the boat with this in the number one's newsletter. And now as an expert technical analysis I will say it just keeps going up and to the right and I think that's good.
Am I correct? I I know but look at how it keeps getting rejected also like it popped yesterday to made new highs cleared the the top of the the daily base and then got slapped even though yesterday was a very very bullish day.
So ultimately when it tried to go lower it got you know got rejected and got bought. So, I think it's higher, but it's a very slo I mean it I I wish it wasn't so sloppy. Every day every day is like it's got a tail on on the daily chart.
On the daily bar, there's a tail. So, I wish it wasn't I wish it was a little bit more definitively bullish. I mean, I'm in it and I'm a little bit worried about it because it's keeps putting these reversal bars like yesterday's bar, the day before, the day before that.
They're all like dogee bars or reversal bars. So hopefully eventually goes higher. I raised I went ahead and raised my stop to the red bars low which is 14280 on the daily chart.
So I don't have my chart. I mean I'm not showing my plat my charts. I can but uh to me it's it's not the prettiest chart. It was looking pretty but it's not the prettiest.
看看 SpaceX。我对这张图非常看多。这只是从 IPO 以来拉出的成交量分布。你可以看到,成交量最高的节点大约在 152.25。现在它正在充当支撑,对吧?如果我们收在 155 上方,这匹小马就要跑起来了。
这就是我在等的。我需要价格在 155 上方被接受。我们正在经历一轮基本上是从 IPO 带来的上方供给吸收周期。人们在 152 一带买了回调,他们又买了一次回调,然后这里的突破失败了,这在左侧制造了大量的上方供给。
所以在我看来,单看这张图,一旦你突破 155,价格在它上方被接受,你可以看到左侧这里的成交量分布要稀薄得多,对吧?这表明潜在的红区供给要少得多,而更稀薄的分布可能意味着更快的上涨。
所以我认为我们正处在一轮技术性突破的边缘。每一天它突破 155,甚至 152,都是白送的钱。就像你只要花一两美元买进去,就能白赚钱。但我们还没有得到那种价格接受。这里仍然有卖家。
所以他们让它涨上来,然后吸收掉那些供给,再把它压回去。但你会注意到,这里重要的是更高的低点。现在左侧到处都是更高的低点。低点在抬高。它们不再回到锚定的 VWAP。明白吗?它们在这里盘整。
这可能形成一个楔形。它们最终可能形成一个三角旗形、一个旗形。我们不知道。但我们确实知道的是,这里已经出现了性质上的变化,而在我看来,我们正处在未来几天至少涨到 174 的技术性突破的边缘。这是我的观点。这是我的说法,我坚持这个说法。
SpaceX look. I'm super bullish on the chart. The um ... So this is just the volume profiled out from the IPO. And what you can see here is your highest volume node is around 152 and a quarter.
And now it's acting as support, right? We get a close about above 155 and this pony is going to go. So that's what I'm waiting for. I need a price acceptance over 155. We're going through a cycle of um basically overhead supply absorption from from the IPO.
People bought the dip did the 152s, they bought the dip again and then they the breakout failed here which create a whole lot of overhead supply on left side. So in my opinion just looking at this chart is once you once you get through 155 you get press acceptance above it.
You can see the volume profile to the left here is much thinner, right? indicating potentially uh a lot lower red supply and a thinner profile would probably indicate a faster ascent.
So I think we're on the on the brink of a technical breakout here. Uh every day that it breaks 155 is um even 152 is free money. Like you just you try buy just buy it for a dollar or two and you make free money.
But uh we haven't we haven't had that price acceptance. There's still sellers here. So they're, you know, they're letting it come up and then they're they're uh absorbing that supply and bringing it back down.
But you can not you'll notice here what's important is the higher lows. You have higher lows everywhere now to the left. And that uh you know the the the lows are higher. They're not coming back to the anchored VWAP.
Okay? They're they're consolidating here. This could form a wedge. They could form a a pennant, a flag eventually. We don't know. But what we do know is that um there's been a a change of character here and we're on the brink in my opinion of a technical breakout to at least 174 in the next few days.
That's my opinion. That's my story and I'm sticking to it.
好。Jr.,我想跟你回到 SpaceX 一下,因为我觉得这是个很好的评论。在华尔街 34 年了。他谈的是 SpaceX。我为朋友和家人持有相当一部分。JR 说得对。从技术上看这只股票没问题,但显然问题只是内部人的上方供给。
那么 Jr.,对你来说,技术面会压过对内部人抛售的担忧吗?还是说这只是一个图表这么说,那就把其他一切都忘掉的情况?
Okay. Uh Jr. I want to wind back with you to SpaceX for one second because I think that this is a good comment. Been on Wall Street for 34 years. He's talking about SpaceX. I own quite a bit for friends and family.
JR is right. Technically the stock is fine but clearly the issue is just the insider overhead. Now Jr. do the do the technicals for you override the concerns about the insider selling because is it just a situation where it's like the chart says this so just forget everything else.
听着,我主要是个技术交易者,但如果有人告诉我,你知道,如果你打开那个柜子,里面会有一个僵尸,你懂我的意思吗?那是我会记在心里的基本面信息。现在,SpaceX 一直在发生的情况是,市场正在消化的基本面信息与价格走势并不匹配。
引用一位价格走势的先驱的话,价格就是真相。最终图表就是真相。如果有人告诉你,听着,我们只解锁了,是多少来着?7% 的流通盘。有一场抛售的雪崩即将到来,而你正持有一个更高的枢轴低点,成交量是正 delta。
这意味着你买进的比卖出的多,你正在为突破打底。图表最终是对的,但你知道,我认为基本面信息很重要,只要它能指导我了解其他交易者可能在想什么、他们可能如何行动、叙事可能如何展开。所以我认为关注基本面数据在这方面是重要的,但显然在这里,你知道,我在 160 做空了 SPCX,在低点回补了一部分,显然那个交易想法已经不再奏效了。
所以,你必须足够谦逊地说,好吧,图表现在在告诉你别的东西,老兄。你曾经错了,或者你曾经对了一段时间,但现在你不再对了。你必须调整,最终对我来说,决策的最后堡垒永远是图表,你知道吗?
Look, I'm I'm primarily a technical trader, but if somebody tells me, you know, if you open that closet, there's going to be a zombie in there, you know what I mean? Like, that's some fundamental information that I'm going to uh that I'm going to keep in mind.
Now, what's been happening with with SpaceX, okay, is the the fundamental information the market is processing does not match the price action. And um to quote my uh to quote one of the uh pioneers of price action, price is truth.
The chart is truth in the end. I if you're told, listen, uh we're only we've we've only unlocked uh what is it? 7% of the float. There's an avalanche of selling coming and uh you're high you're holding a higher pivot low on a positive delta in terms of volume.
It means you're you're buying more than you're selling and you're basing for a breakout. The chart is right ultimately, but uh you know I I I I think fundamental information is important in as far as it can guide me in terms of what other traders may be thinking, what how they may be behaving and what how the narrative may may unfold.
So I think paying attention to fundamental data is important in as far as that is concerned but like clearly here you know I shorted I shorted SPCX at 160 covered a bunch of the lows and like clearly that trade idea is no longer working.
So, you have to be humble enough to say like, "Okay, the chart's telling you something else now, dude. You know, you got you're you were wrong or you were right for a while, but now you're no longer right."
And you have to uh just adjust and ultimately like the last bastion of decision-m for me is always the the chart, you know?
好,在下面的聊天里告诉我们。你喜欢 SpaceX 吗?输入是或否。我感觉我每天都在后悔没买它。我不知道这是怎么回事。我就像每天都被 SpaceX 诱惑着。
All right, let us know down in the chat below. Do you like SpaceX? Type a yes or no. I feel like every day I regret not buying it. I don't know what it is. I'm just like tempted by SpaceX like every single day.
它之前 IPO 的时候你没买到吗?>> 我买到了。我买了一点,最后以非常非常小的利润卖掉了。没什么值得炫耀的。我知道我本该在更低的位置买,但你能怎么办呢?你不可能每次都赢。
Didn't you get it when it went IPO before? Like >> I did. I got a little bit and I ended up selling it for very very small profit. Nothing to write home about. in like I knew I should have bought him lower, but what are you gonna do? You can't can't win them all.
观察点
这个频道对 $SPCX 的历次判断
T3 Live 在这只股票上共 4 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。