SPOT 是强劲的长期投资标的；尽管估值偏高（约 40 倍 EPS）且面临竞争，但利润率扩张至 20% 以及唱片公司条款改善支撑乐观预期。
逐段跳播
关于Spotify，我会谈到那个。
About Spotify I will talk about that.
你本来想从Spotify开始，但我对谈Nintendo非常兴奋，所以我用我的主持卡来谈Nintendo。我买了这只股票。我给它打10分（满分10分），然后我们会讨论Spotify，我给它9分，还有你方便的话，谈一些其他事情。
You are Spotify. To start with Wanted, But I About Nintendo To talk Very excited, So I am mine. Host card Using About Nintendo I will talk about that. I bought the stock. I give it 10 out of 10, and Then we About Spotify I will discuss, Which I 9 Give, and your For Convenient Some other things With.
我一直对它相当乐观，那就是Spotify。而且全都是。我带着我的偏见来说。2021年、2022年，我一直后悔。我本来会。关于Spotify我做了很多工作，当时股价大概在150，但我最终错过了这个机会。
I always Their Quite about it Optimistic, and That is. Spotify. and All Yes. I am mine. Of bias By talking I give. 2021, In 2022, my Always regret. I would have. About Spotify A lot of work I did when Share price Probably 150 It was in the room, But the end Until I The opportunity Lost I did.
而我一直这样做。我愿意。因为我白天大约12个小时在后台听Spotify。我听我所有的播客。这是一个非常持久的订阅，就在我手机的前面。
And I always do this. I would like to. Because I am in the daytime About 12 hours In the background Spotify I would listen. I All of me Listen to podcasts. This is a very Long-lasting Subscription Which is on my phone It's in front.
而我错过了。我这样做是因为当时，你知道，那正是Ackman通过PSTH把UMG上市的时候，这件事正在发生。我错过了。我这样做是因为当时我也在和音乐厂牌合作，我和谁谈过，所有音乐厂牌的支持者都在说，长期来看Spotify会爬上来。
我会。他们那样说，我不同意，但我的冒名顶替综合征发作了。我在想：“该死，那些研究音乐和厂牌的人，如果他们都告诉我Spotify有危险，那就走吧。”
And I am lost. I did it because At that time, you You know, it was That time when Ackman PSTH- Through this To UMG Public was doing and this Nationality Something was happening.
I am lost. I did it because At that time I Music The labels Also work with I was doing and With whom I am I spoke, All music Label Supporters It was saying that In the long term Spotify We climb up.
I will. They are that. was saying and I Disagreement I did, But mine Imposter Syndrome It was happening. I I was thinking, "Damn, Those who are music With the label By studying If they all Tell me that Spotify In danger, go."
“好吧，就这样。”从那以后Spotify做得很好。你接受它。相当乐观。我认为就是这样。现在是你最强的长期投资。
"Okay, that's all." Since then Spotify Great job. You take it. Quite optimistic. I think this is it. Now yours. The most Strong Long-term Investment.
从那以后，Spotify做得很好。所以，我只想问，我们想从2026年底开始，我站在一边，上次看到的股价大约550。你现在为什么对Spotify这么乐观？
Since then Spotify Great job. So, I just To ask We want Since 2026 End of the year I am on the side, Last seen According to Share price About 550. You now About Spotify Why so optimistic?
当然。所以，嗯，这个上传完成了，这是我的。在页面最末尾，它会出现在顶部。而我想做我的认错，因为我错过了Spotify，大概从2024年起你就能赶上。我看看那个。本该给的。文章标题是Spotify。一个沉默的复利机器，我再也不会低估它了。
Of course. So, um this is Upload Done, this is mine. At the very end of the page It will be on top. And I am mine. Admitting mistakes To do I wanted Because I Spotify I missed you, Probably 2024 To catch up with since You can.
My Look at that. Should have given . and Article name This is Spotify. A silent one Compounder Whom I no longer Never Devaluation I won't.
文章。绝对。一开始我提到过，我就是这样，我误以为，记录，那些厂牌，它们的利润，对它们来说，人质，会保留下来。我听说——我，任何具体的投资者，去批评，我不想，因为很多投资者普遍对音乐有类似的理论，而我有一个想法。
Article Absolutely At the beginning I I mentioned That's how I By mistake I thought that Record The labels Their profits For them Hostage Will keep it. I I heard—I Any Specific Investor To criticize I don't want to because Many Investor Universal About music Similar Theory and I had an idea.
在我的写作中，在企业界工作，说到经验，去强调，我喜欢。我任何专业投资，比在企业FP&A（FP&A）工作的时间长得多。而且我也在电台工作过。而对Spotify我的不感兴趣，是因为我以为，它们永远无法与厂牌的关系修好？不能。厂牌的利润率很低。会保留下来。
I In my writing In the corporate world To work Speaking of experience To highlight I like it. I Any Professional Investment Much more than Over time Corporate FP & A (FP&A) I worked. and I'm also on the radio.
I worked. and From Spotify My disinterest Born because I thought. They never The labels Relationship with Can you fix it? No. The labels Margin is low. Will keep it.
我误以为，苹果税，我是说，它们其他的订阅，很大一部分要支付，而它们在这个问题上，稍微灵活了一些，事情就是这样。
I By mistake I thought that Apple Tax, I mean, Their others Subscription A large part To pay Will be and they On that subject A little flexible It happened.
还有另一件我回避的事。我去了，这是件大事。有一个转折，那就是Spotify。唱片厂牌的协议，通过调解，重新安排了。
And Another thing that I avoid. I went, and This is a big one. There was a bend, that This is Spotify. Record The labels Agreement with Rescheduling Through Peacemaking Did.
但我说，我希望从2024年到2025年，Spotify与所有唱片厂牌的新合同，第一次，在我看来，让所有人站在同一边，受到鼓励，事情就是这样。
But I say I want from 2024 The year 2025 In, Spotify All Record With label New contract Where did First time Like in my opinion Everyone on the same side To stay Encouraged It happened.
那就是，尽管Spotify增长很快，它们的版税率实际上在下降。它们获得的订阅者越多，基本上就是几个指标的组合。厂牌说这个。Spotify赢了，对吧？
That, as much as Spotify Grows quickly, Their Royalty rate In fact, it decreases . The more they Subscriber Gets, it's basically A few Metrics A combination. The labels It says this. Spotify Victory, right?
Spotify的论点一直是，“我们的”所有听众都在附近，是的。如果任何厂牌把我们单独分开，但我们会把所有人撤走。我们会拿走，而我在往有声书和播客的方向走，所以我们人是不同的。去推动“我可以”。
Spotify The argument was Always, "ours" All the listeners nearby Yes. If any Label us Separately But we Remove everyone. We will take and we Audiobooks and Podcasts I'm going towards, So we People are different. To push towards "I can."
更确切地说，是Spotify在代表自己告诉厂牌，“我们现在掌控着你们，对吧？我们正逐渐减少对你们的依赖。而且你知道吗？下一次协议续签时，能押注Spotify吗？更多的‘会占优势’。”
Rather it Was Spotify On behalf of Telling the labels That, "We are now Yours Control I am, right? We are gradually Less on you. Dependent I am. And you know What? Next Agreement At the time of renewal, To bet Can I Spotify? More "Will take advantage."
不过，是的，确实如此。Spotify赢了，因为它们比以前拿到了更好的条件。Spotify另一件我回避的事。去了，今年年初或年底，年底，我又说了同样的事。我说，从广告增加收入，Spotify的预期，成功与否，没有。
However Yes, it is. Spotify Win because they More than before Good conditions Got it. Spotify Another one for I avoid the subject. Went and This year At the beginning or at the end At the end of the year I Same thing again.
I said that, From advertising To increase income Spotify Expectations Successful according to No.
你是一个有声书。即将带来，说了，那是肯定的。很好。而播客方面，Spotify新的定价策略这件事，我没有关注。或者回避了。
You are an audiobook. About to bring Said and That's for sure. Great. And I Podcasts In case Spotify New price Determination Strategy The matter I didn't pay attention. or avoiding I went.
播客以前会花很多钱。直接说，如果他们去，那么太多，不真实，做了一笔交易。好吧，但Joe Rogan的播客大概成功了，但其他那些那样是盈利的。不是，尽管它们现在正从那个位置移开，让播客变得盈利了。
Podcasts For before A lot of money It would have cost. To speak directly If they go, then Too much Unreal Made a deal . Okay, but Joe Rogan's Podcast Probably successful It happened, but Others That way it's profitable.
Not, although they Now that place Moving away from Podcast Made it profitable.
有声书很棒。一项举措，而据它们说，通过这个，它们可以让用户额外购买接近小时的音频服务。
Audiobooks are great. An initiative And according to them, Through this They Users Extra close Hourly audio Selling services Can do it.
它们当然不披露具体账户。你说得对，它们非常快。说了，在我看来，它们只是额外的音频积分，几乎从1亿美元的业务速度来看，是有的。
They are of course Specific No account Does not disclose. You are right, They are very fast. Said that I It seems to them Just extra Audio credits Almost since 100 million Dollar Business speed There is.
还有一件事。不那么重要，我说过，Spotify有一种额外赚钱的方式。厂牌收窄版税率，那些愿意以营销和推广费率作为交换来降低的人，会同意。
One more thing. Less important I gave that, Spotify Extra money Earnings There was a way. The labels Close up Royalty rate Taken, those who Marketing and Promotion Rate in exchange Would have agreed to reduce .
歌曲方面，广告非常好，是哪个位置？这个Spotify主页，对吧？你是Spotify。打开时，厂牌就在正前方看到。而如果它们从它们开始，也得说。不，如果给出提示，它们就是你。在主页上开始保留，
Song In case Advertisement Very good for Which place is it? This Spotify Homepage, right? You are Spotify. When opened The labels Right in front See. And If they start By them It also needs to be said.
No, hint If given, They are you. On the front page Start keeping,
为什么是Spotify？他太受欢迎了。原因之一，他们是我最喜欢的歌曲，全都了解，对吧？
Why Spotify? He is so popular. One of the reasons They are mine. All favorite songs Knows about, Isn't that right?
在我看来，Spotify似乎还有另一个优势，就是类似这样的东西。要评估的话，不，不是那样。他们所有歌曲的所有权，还有一份授权证明，所以他们做混音或任何其他AI内容创作，能做什么？
任何其他想做成一家公司，如果你去做一个大案子，要面对，可以。
My It seems Spotify Another advantage There is something like that. To evaluate No, that is. All their songs Ownership and There is a clearance certificate, So they Remix or Any other AI Content creation What can you do?
Any other To make a company If you go to a big case To face Can.
这里还有一个。有趣的是，Spotify的股价大约是收入的40倍。反过来说，交易是成立的，如果你想，可以有不同意见，但那是大约40倍的每股收益，对吧？
Here is another one. The funny thing is Spotify Shares about 40 Multiplication of income On the contrary Transactions are made and If you want Disagreement Can, But that About 40 times EPS, right?
Spotify的收入增长在数学上只有两位数。我认为是这样。说它合理，是因为他们的收入在增长。你知道，40倍、包含每股收益的两位数增长，我觉得太多了。我不会说它贵，但它确实有点贵。
Spotify Revenue growth Only two In the math room. I think it is. To say Reasonable That they Revenue is increasing. You know, 40 Quality EPS-included Two digits Growth I am too much.
I wouldn't say expensive, But it is a bit Expensive.
两位数增长，我觉得太多了。我不会说它贵，但它确实有点贵。在我看来，你就是那个人。在这个阶段，年度允许率估值开始做了。而对于这样一门生意，据我所知，Apple Music的竞争被挡住了。
我知道他们是这样。YouTube Music的竞争也被挡住了。我知道他们是这样。Amazon Music的竞争也被挡住了。但对于这样一门生意，有很多富有的竞争对手，这些人是他们捆绑的根本组成部分，在两位数收入增长下，40倍收入的价格看起来完全完美。
Two digits Growth I am too much. I wouldn't say expensive, But it is a bit Expensive. In mind You are the one. At this stage Annual allowance Rate evaluation Starting to do . And such a For business What I know Apple Music Competition Prevented .
I know they are. YouTube Music Also the competition Prevented . I know they are. Amazon Music Also the competition Prevented . But such A business For which many Wealthy Competitor There are those who This is their The root of the bundle Making parts, Double digit Revenue In growth 40 times income Completely Perfect Like the price It seems.
所以我的主要反对意见是，兄弟，对你来说，一个类别里谁有生意？有很多强大的竞争对手，而市场把ATK类别看作赢家。就好像它要花很多钱。更多。
So My main The objection is, " Brother, to you A Category Who has a business? Many Strong Competitor There is and Market ATK Categories As a winner "Looking." "As if It costs a lot. "More."
我的主要反对意见是，兄弟，对你来说，一个类别里谁有生意？有很多强大的竞争对手，而市场把ATK类别看作赢家。就好像它要花很多钱。更多。那么你就是答案。你说什么？当然。不脱离原来的语境，我告诉你，这让我想起我听说过的关于Apple的一些负面评论。
当人们有时对Apple这个话题感到悲观，说，哦，它增长得这么慢。不管我回答什么。我的讨论要点和Spotify那件事是我的。我喜欢它，不管怎样，我很平静。我说复利，那是最重要的，老兄，你不是。
当然，他们停在那里。当他说，哦，它只是一年。收入增长10-11%。但是，目前这是持续的。利润率扩张，实际上，收入增长接近20%，我在走。我明白了。他们来了。几年内以20%的复合年增长率，实际收入在增长。
因为，长期来看，抓住他们。管理层有一个利润率。非常低。我认为是这样。按LTM基础，现在大约14%或在他周围，意味着处于中间阶段。从现在到2030年，达到20%的利润率是有机会的，这是他们目前的速度可以实现的。
而我们之前做的，我告诉过他。因为这一切，我认为是这样。之后它可以涨到30%。在我看来，也许就是这样。你所处的情况总是这样。你可能会得到你想要的一个倍数。对很多人来说，这并不令人安慰，因为它是一个寡头垄断，或者是一家有点市场地位的公司。
而且说实话，我会说Apple、YouTube Music和Amazon这样的音乐。竞争对手要阻止Spotify取得那个成就，是应该被接受的。他们得到了。他们永远不会完全失去这些怪物。
他们永远做不到。不，因为竞争对手总会存在，但Spotify是那个市场明显的头号玩家，毫无疑问。我最担心YouTube。但是，是的，我认为30倍——它故事开始的方向——倍数，在一个寡头垄断市场以每年20%的收入增长率运行，你在那里赚钱。
增长和现金流增长，看着吧。他们在增加回购。我认为现金分红，人们的想法太多了。而在我的情况下，我是在利润率。没有增加，我在争论。不。我只是说，伙计们，倍数再往前看几年，你。很容易从35%看到25%的利润可能性。
而且除此之外，如果他们继续增加他们的高级订阅并降低成本，有，但它会处于赢家的位置。
My main The objection is, " Brother, to you A Category Who has a business? Many Strong Competitor There is and Market ATK Categories As a winner "Looking." "As if It costs a lot.
"More." Then You are the answer. What do you say? Of course. Original From the context Without moving I'm telling you, this is me. Apple Heard about Some negatives Commentary Reminds.
When people Sometimes Apple On the subject Is pessimistic And says, "Oh, this So slowly "I am growing." "Whatever I say in reply." My discussion The main point and Spotify That matter is mine.
I like it, whoever I am calm. Compounding I say, that is Most Man, you are not. Of course, they Stop there. When he says, "Oh, It's only a year. 10-11% revenue "It's increasing."
But, Currently This is ongoing. Margin Expansion Actually, income Growth About 20 Percentage With close proximity "I am going." I see. They are coming. 20% in a few years At CAGR rate Real income Increasing.
Because, for a long time Catch them. Management There was a margin. Very low. I think so. LTM On this basis Now about 14% or Around him, Means middle It is in the stage. From now to 2030 By the year 20% of them On the margin To reach There is an opportunity, which Their current At speed Achievable.
And what we did before I told him. Because of everything, I think it is. Later it is 30% To go up Can. In my mind Maybe it's something like this. Situation Where you are Always like this.
A multiple You might get what you want. To many Comforting No, because it is An oligopoly Or a little bit Company Market. and To be honest, I I would say that Apple, YouTube Music And Amazon Like music.
Rivals To prevent For Spotify That achievement It is supposed to be received. They get it. They Never this Monsters Completely To lose You can't. They You can never do that. No because Rivals There will always be, But Spotify That market The obvious one Number player, Doubt about it No. I With YouTube The most Worried.
But yes, I think 30- The beginning of its story Direction Multiple, which An oligopoly 20% per year in the market Income growth rate Doing, there You earn. Growth and Cash flow Growth Looking at Will be.
They Buyback Increasing. I think cash Dividend Human More than an idea Too much. And In my case, I am margin. No increase I am arguing. No. I just Guys, Multiplex A few more years Forward Take it, you.
Easily 25% From 35% Profit Possibility You will see. And beyond that, If they are their Premium Subscription Keeps increasing and reduce costs There is, but it A winner In position There will be.
关于Spotify你还有别的吗？如果没有，我想简要谈谈Netflix。关于Spotify我最后的话是，过去五到十年里，另一个巨大的优势是，他们现在的流媒体竞争对手比以前少了很多。
五年前Daniel，这是怎么回事？版权交易重新安排了。现在拿它来批评有点费劲。这很难，因为当时有太多流媒体替代品，人们也许忘了。当时有Tidal，有Deezer。对不起，我把名字说错了。
我是字面意思。在他们的意义上，我忘了这个词。这么多新事物，公司正在分崩离析。它没了，另一个当时看起来像是，哦，它只是一个假平台。但现在他们最好的竞争对手要与之抗衡，能力是有的，而你。
很多新的事情你什么也做不了。也许这就是那个时候，当一个中等质量的CEO和他们的基础是这样。那是强大的。公司可以继续下去。
About Spotify Anything else you have? If not, I Netflix In brief about I want to talk. About Spotify My last words That is, the last five In ten years from Another one of them The big advantage is, Than before Their Streaming Competitor now Very little.
Five Years ago Daniel one How is this? Rights deals Rescheduling Did it. Take it now Criticism It's a bit of work. It's difficult, because then Too much Streaming There was an alternative, which People maybe Forgot.
Then Tidal was, There was Deezer. I Sorry, I I'm saying the name wrong. . I am literal. In their sense Forgetting the word I went. So many new things The company is falling apart.
It's gone, another one It seemed like time, "Oh, it's just... A fake Platform." But now Their best Competitors To fight with Like ability Yes, and you. Many new To do nothing You can.
Maybe This is that time, When one Medium quality The CEO and their The basis is this. That is strong. The company To continue You can.
所以我想问你，我们想谈谈Spotify，我说了一点，但在我看来，AI在Netflix的短片和生成内容方面——两者都更相关。
So I you To ask We want About Spotify A little talk I said, but I It seems AI Netflix In case of short- Form and Generated Content—both More from the side Relevant.
观察点
这个频道对 $SPOT 的历次判断
Yet Another Value Podcast 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。