SPY将在760.40美元反弹,但由于美联储的国债回购和货币贬值背景,反弹幅度将小于典型情况。
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首先看标普500指数,各位。你们可以看到,标普500指数大约六个交易日形成了一个漂亮的汇聚,所有动能都在推动价格下行。我之前已经强调过这一点,这个枢轴点,也就是之前的历史高点,是我们最近这轮上涨中突破的那根K线。我一直在等待价格回踩测试该水平。毕竟,我在这个节目里讲过多少次突破后的回踩反弹交易。现在,我预计当价格到达$760.40时会出现反弹。会抑制反弹、使其变小的因素有几个。首先,上周四我们已经跌到过这里,在触及该水平之前出现了一个小反弹;其次,在我描述的背景下,美联储通过回购来维持国债收益率,从而削弱了我们的美元购买力。所以,他们是在人为地这样做,各位。这是一种货币贬值操作。在这种背景下,这种影响会持续多久,投资者会有多急于重返市场?我知道我自己并不那么急切,所以我预计当价格触及$760.40时(可能就在明天),反弹幅度会较小。如果没有这种背景,我预计图表上的反弹幅度会大得多,但我们现在就处于这种状况,所以我们必须分析价格目前可能走向何方。
First up with the S&P 500, guys. You see here with the S&P 500, we've got a beautiful culmination of about six trading days, all developing motion, moving price action down here on the S&P 500. I've highlighted this before, guys. This pivot point, which is the previous all-time high, that's the candle that we broke out to get above in this most recent rally. I've been waiting for price to come back and test that level. After all, how many times in this show do I talk about a breakout and a retrace bounce play. Now, this bounce is what I'm anticipating to occur should and when price come down to $760.40. The thing that will will dampen the bounce, make it smaller is a couple things. First, we already got down here last week on Thursday, put up a small bounce right before the level, and secondly, the backdrop of what I described, the Fed is reducing our dollar buying power by doing these buybacks, maintaining the Treasury yield. So, they're artificially doing this, guys. This is a currency debasement play. How much of this is going to be remain elevated, and how much are investors going to be eager to jump right back into the markets with all of this going on in the backdrop? I know I'm not as eager, so I'm anticipating a smaller bounce should and when price hit there potentially tomorrow at $760.40. Now, if we didn't have this in the backdrop, I would anticipate a potential bounce much higher on the charts, but it is where we're at right now, so we've got to analyze where price can currently go.
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