标普条件有利于选股，因为波动率低且趋势上升；跌破18周支撑将对市场偏好产生负面影响。
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所以，我想重点关注标普500指数正在发生的情况，如果你注意到在两个时间框架内，我们现在都有这条下降的移动平均线，并且在周线图上的真实波幅（ATR）中刚刚形成了一个更低的高点和一个更低的低点，你可以在日线图上看到这个更大的形态，好吗？
所以这基本上是该图表的放大版本。我在这里想说的是，随着这两个时间框架内的波动率下降和趋势上升，这是一个相当稳固的条件，适合进行选股和买入股票。
So, I want to focus here on what's taking place in the S&P, and if you notice in both time frames now, we have this declining moving average, and we've got we've just made a lower high and a lower low in the average true range on the weekly, and you can see this bigger one on the daily chart, all right? So, this is basically a zoomed-in version of this chart. And what what I'm saying here is with this declining volatility and rising trend in both time frames, this is a pretty solid condition to be in place for stock picking, to be able to buy stocks.
现在，让我担心的是如果这一情况失败，我们会看到18周均线翻转并真正跌破，那么我们将对这条18周线施加压力，好吗？所以就是这里的18周线。如果我们跌破它，市场的偏向就会改变，届时选股将变得更加困难。如果发生这种情况，我们将看到波动率上升。
Now, where I would get concerned here is if this were to fail, we'd see this 18 roll over and truly break, then we'd be putting pressure on this 18-week line, all right? And so, that's 18 week right here. And if we break that, then the bias shifts in this market and then then picking stocks is going to get a lot more difficult. We're going to see the volatility go up if that happens.
我想提到的另一件事是，我们经历了一次不错的回调。所以我们回测到了突破区域，然而我们没有看到对波动率造成任何损害。这通常是一个好兆头，尤其是现在我们已经将RSI 5指标推向了中性超卖区域。这通常是一个好兆头。
The other thing I wanted to mention here is that we've had a nice pullback. So we've pulled back to the breakout area and yet we haven't seen you know any damage to the volatility. So that's a typically a good sign especially now that we've worked this RSI 5 down towards the neutral oversold area. That's that's typically a good sign.
让我们看看四个不同的时间框架，如果我们看月线图，目前有一个相当稳固的形态。我们还没有出现极端的向上走势，并且一路上都有MACD确认。绿色DI，我也希望看到ADX上穿25。可能希望看到该指标表现出更多的强度，但总体而言，从月度基础来看，这看起来相当不错。
Let's take a look at the four different time frames and if we look at a monthly, we've got pretty solid pattern in place. We're not doing anything extreme to the upside yet and we've got MACD confirmation all along the way. Green DI also like to see the ADX is crossing above 25. Probably like to see a little bit more strength out of that, but overall this looks pretty good on a monthly basis.
当我们查看周线图时，出现了一些小问题，那就是我们打破了它。首先，我们有最初的突破，绿色DI开始运行，但这条蓝色的ADX线从未真正向上发力。好吧，现在我们创下了另一个新高并向上突破，再次我们看到绿色DI开始运行，显示买方力量尚可，但不足以让ADX突破。
所以它还需要努力。我认为市场需要继续向上延伸并显示出良好的DI，促使ADX向上突破，那样我就觉得我们很有机会延续上涨趋势。
When we look at it on the weekly, we've got a little bit of an issue that has formed and that's the fact that we broke it. Well, first we had this initial breakout and we got green DI going, but the ADX this blue line never really got itself cooking to the upside. All right, and now we've made another new high and broken out to the upside and again we're getting green DI going showing the buyers are decent, but not decent enough to get this ADX to breakout. So it's got some work to do. I think the market's going to need to extend to the upside and show some pretty good DI. Get this to breakout to get this ADX going to the upside and then I'd feel like we've got pretty good chance at continuation to the upside.
如果我们查看日线图，MACD出现了一点翻转。这可能会导致当前区间内出现一些犹豫，而且我们的ADX非常低。通常，非常低的ADX意味着我们不应该停留在那里。我们应该预期某种变动会使其转向。
所以，我们要看看是绿色还是红色会导致这种变化。如果绿色再次突破，我认为那将是一个非常好的迹象。我们会形成一个枢轴低点，并可能尝试突破。然后我们要看看周线图是否确认。
If we look at it on the daily chart, we've we've had a little bit of a rollover in the MACD. So that might cause a little bit more hesitation here in this range that it's in at this point and we've got a very low ADX. Now typically a very low ADX means that we we shouldn't stay there. We should be expecting some kind of a move that gets this to turn. So, we're going to want to see if that's green or red that causes it. If green breaks out again, I think that would be a real good sign. We'd make a pivot low and probably go ahead and attempt to break out. And then we'd want to see if the weekly confirms.
改善的一点是情绪略有降温。尽管市场并没有做太多动作，但我们看到多头在减少。我们看到空头增多，我认为这是一个好兆头，即使我们并没有对形态造成任何破坏。
One of the things that has improved is the fact that the sentiment has dropped off a little bit. Even though the market hasn't really done a whole lot, we are seeing that we're seeing the the bulls drift down. We're seeing a few more bears and I think that's it's a good sign even though we haven't really done any damage to the pattern.
他说在等什么
他自己说在等的东西，一段话一条记录。同一件事说过几次就出现几次，我们不合并，也不判断它有没有兑现。
这个频道对 $SPY 的历次判断
StockCharts TV 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。