标普500指数可能跌破50日均线，目标指向约7400点；该水平为年底反弹提供了逢低吸纳的机会。
逐段跳播
那么，我先快速调出一张spiders的图表。这张图不算好，但能用。这是标普，确实有一些我们想关注的价位，一旦我们开始往上走到当前位置附近。
So, let me just bring up a chart of the of spiders here real quick. It's just not a great chart, but it works. Um, so this is the the S&P and there there's certainly some levels that we want to kind of look at and once we start getting over to to where we are.
200日移动平均线远在下方。它在spiders上，现在用spiders作为标普500的替代指标。标普上大约在715到718。
The the 200 day moving average is way down here. It's uh on the SN on on spiders and using spiders right now as kind of a just a proxy for the S&P 500. That's around 715 718 on the S&P.
但要跌到那个水平，你就得跌破50日移动平均线的两个和三个标准差。所以我认为50日线是一个潜在支撑位。我们可能会在本月底之前跌破它。
But to get down to that level, you're breaking down below two and three standard deviations of the 50-day moving average. So I I think the 50-day is, you know, kind of this potential support level.
We're probably going to take this out before the end of the month.
而且，这很大程度上取决于FOMC的结果。目前很大程度上取决于很多事情，但如果我们真的跌破这条50日线，我认为我们会跌到大约740左右，也就是50日移动平均线下方两个标准差的位置。
所以标普7,400左右是标普一个可能的下行目标。
And again, a lot of it depends on what happens with the FOMC. A lot of it depends on a lot of things right now, but if we do take out this 50-day, I think we get down here towards potentially about 740ish, which is going to be two standard deviations below that 50-day moving average.
I, you know, so 7,400ish on the S&P is a likely downside target for the S&P.
我不知道我们会不会跌到那里，对吧？市场里仍然有很多动能，我们并没有看到太多负面情绪，而且当你看看投资者整体的情绪，投资者仍然相当看涨，目前市场上并没有太多重大的担忧笼罩着。所以我会说，7,400这个水平左右大概是你最大的下行风险，至少目前是这样。
I don't know if we get there, right? There's there's a there's a lot of momentum still in within the markets and we're not seeing a whole lot of negativity and and when you take a look at sentiment across the board from investors, investors are still fairly bullish and there's not a lot of major concern kind of overlying the markets right now.
So kind I would say around that 7,400 level is probably your your maximum downside risk at least for now.
中期选举会是另一个问题。从现在到中期选举之间会发生什么。所以，如果你把7,400这个水平当作你的下行目标，我认为你可以在那里开始建仓，为可能出现的11月、也就是中期选举之后年底的反弹做准备。
Um midterms are going to be another issue. what happens between now and the midterm election. So, if you kind of use that 7,400 level as kind of your downside target, I think you can start accumulating there for potentially a November kind of that end of the year rally coming out of the midterm elections.
不过，不管结果如何，一旦市场能够消化这个结果——不管是谁控制众议院、谁控制参议院，是不是一边倒，不管发生什么，这对政策意味着什么？一旦市场能够把握住这个结果——而僵局会是最好的结果——那么我认为市场可以反弹到年底。
However, however those come out once the market can digest that outcome whether you know who controls the house, who controls the senate, is it a sweep, you know, whatever happens and what does that mean for policy?
Once the markets can get their hand their their hands around that outcome and gridlock would be the best outcome then I think the markets can rally into year end.
我们拭目以待。但再说一次，单从价位来看，我会关注50日线，也就是我们现在所在的位置。100日线就在它下方，100日线目前大约在7,500左右，再往下大约在7,400。我认为这些是接下来几周、接下来几个月里值得关注的关键价位。
We'll see. But uh you know so again just from levels I I would watch the 50-day which is where we are right now. The 100 day is right below that where that's the 100 day sitting currently right around 7 7500ish and then below that around 7,400.
I think those are your key levels to watch here over the course of the next you know ne next couple of weeks next couple of months.
这个频道对 $SPY 的历次判断
The Real Investment Show 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。