SWKS 在阻力位处于超买；预计将回调。
逐段跳播
今天，我要做Skyworks，因为对我来说，对于你们中喜欢交易期权的人，我认为这是我正在考虑买入看跌期权的东西，因为它已经超买到极致，而且它处在一个阻力位。
Today, I'm going to do Skyworks because this to me, for those of you who like to trade options, I think this is something I'm looking at to buy puts on because it's about as overbought as you can get and it's at >> a resistance level.
你有时间对Skyworks，股票代码SWKS，做一个看涨的预测吗？我想把这个放进来，其中一个原因是Mark Patrino今天早上谈到了这个。
Do you have time for a bullish prognostication on Skyworks, ticker SWKS? And one of the reasons I want to throw this one in here is because Mark Patrino talked about this this morning.
SWKS，我相信。是的。我总是，我，我这辈子都没法把这个股票代码弄对。粉丝，Marie。所以，你，你在这方面并不孤单。
>> S WKS, I believe. Yeah. I always I I cannot get that ticker right to save my life. fan, Marie. So, you're not you're not uh alone there.
所以，这相当有意思，对吧？这是你从财报角度想看到的那种行为。它逐渐淡入财报形态。每个人都有些紧张。进入一个干净的支撑石。一、二、三、四。在财报事件前几乎待在那里五周，然后它在财报后漂移中反弹，回落。看看它在哪里停下。
>> So, this is pretty interesting, right? This is the kind of behavior you want to see from an earnings perspective. It fades into the earnings formation. Everybody a little nervous. Comes into a clean support stone. One, two, three, four. stays there almost five weeks into the earnings event and then it's got a bounce post drift pulls back. Look at where it stops.
各位，听着。我知道你们觉得这可能有点巫术。我向你们保证它管用。Ma，去你最喜欢的AI那里说：“给我构建一个能在一周内突出财报丑闻的指标。”然后看看它如何与之前的财报形态相关联。它真的非常漂亮，尤其是如果有重度拥堵的话。
Folks, listen. I know you think this might be a little bit of voodoo. I promise you it works. Ma, go to your favorite AI and say, "Build me an indicator that highlights the earning scandal on the week." and then watch how it relates to the prior earnings formations. It's really very beautiful, especially if there's heavy congestion.
但注意它做了什么。它在回落时来到了之前财报形态的底部，现在它已经大幅上涨。但这里正在发生什么？如果你看这条趋势线，也就是100简单移动平均线，你对自己说：“哦，看看这个Skyworks。”
嗯，你是做多还是做空？是的，你做空。你做空。你做空是因为它在下方，而且它不断创出更低的高点和更低的低点，然后突然进入财报。
But notice what it did. It came to the base of the prior earnings formation on the pullback and now it's run dramatically. But what's going on right here? If you're looking at this trend line, which is the 100 simple moving average, and you're saying to yourself, "Oh, look at this skyworks." Um, are you long or are you short? Yeah, you're short. You're short. And you're short because it's underneath and it's continually making lower highs and lower lows and then all of a sudden comes into earnings.
然后让我们从K线收盘做趋势线突破。测试，测试。几乎就在这里测试。一次测试。还有这个。你觉得这是什么？那是空头回补。是空头回补。是那些一直在印钱或做空看涨期权之类的所有空头。现在他们必须赶紧脱身。
And then let's do the trend line break from the close of the candle. Test test. Almost a test right up here. A test. And this. What do you think this is? That's short covering. It's short covering. It's all the shorts that were printing cash or short the calls or whatever. And now they have got to get out of dodge.
现在旧支撑变成新阻力，一次、两次、三次。第四次就是突破。它在创出更高的低点。它很可能在再次上涨之前先回落。这是我的怀疑。
Now old support, new resistance once, twice, thrice. Fourth time is the breach. It's making higher lows. It's very likely to pull back before it gets another rise to the upside. That's my suspicion.
好。所以，这种K线形态是空头回补，或者多头只是在追逐边缘，而我们已经到达第一个目标事件，也就是92。下一个接近100。
>> Okay. So, this type of candlestick is short covering or longs just chasing the edge and we're already up to our first target event which is at 92. The next one near 100.
所以，你可能会说，嗯，我为什么不能直接冲着100去？你可以。问题是，在它今天已经上涨735之后，你指望它明天就到那里吗？周ATR是8美元。它在一周的波动中移动了。它在一天内移动了。
正常的ATR是8美元。它已经在一天内一举移动了那么多。对于正常的一天，ATR是380。所以，它现在的移动速度大约是2个ATR。
So, you might go, well, why can't I just go after 100? You can. The question is, do you expect it to get there tomorrow after it's moved up 735 today? The weekly ATR is $8. It's moved in a week of motion. It's moved in one day. The AT the normal ATR $8. It's already moved that in one fell swoop in one day. For the normal day, the ATR is 380. So, it's moving at about 2 ATR right now.
是的，那很棒。但那些东西会衰竭，而且它们衰竭的频率相当高。而现在的成交量，嗯，现在是一天中的早些时候。成交量仍然很低，但看看那个。它应该会衰竭。
>> Yeah, that's great. But those things exhaust and and they exhaust with pretty relative frequency. And the volume right now, well, it's early in the day. The volume's still low, but take a look at that. It should exhaust.
我会怎么做？你知道，我，我是个期权女孩。我会下去，我会，我会卖出。还有Amarie，这里也值得注意，Skyworks有36.38%的流通股被做空，回补天数为5.81天。这是它有史以来最高的读数之一。
What would I do? You know, I I'm an options gal. I'm gonna go down and I'm gonna I'm gonna sell. >> And Amarie, it's also worth noting here, Skyworks 36.38% of the float shorted with 5.81 days to cover. One of its highest readings ever.
是的。所以在我看来，这明显是空头回补。是的。那么从这个角度看，是不是可以这样说：我要卖出105的看涨期权，或者我要卖出——哪里最多？看那个。里面差不多有2000张。我现在要卖出80的看跌期权。
>> Yeah. So, that screams short covering to me. Yeah. And so from that perspective, you know, is it fair to go, hey, you know, I'm going to sell the 105 calls or I'm going to sell Where's the most? Look at that. Almost 2,000 of those in there. I'm going to sell the 80 puts right now.
我们这里通常不做裸式宽跨式，因为大家都想晚上睡得着觉。但你确实可以做。不过你可以把它变成铁鹰式。那是85。抱歉，是75。看起来相当不错。它简直——看看V有多少。哇。我甚至怀疑这能不能成交。
它几乎把整个价差都给你了。这是一个5美元的价差，却给你457美元。这非常有意思。
We don't normally do naked strangles in here because we all want to sleep at night. But you could right though. But you could turn that into you could turn that into an iron condor. That's 85. Excuse me. 75. That looks pretty good. It's literally Look at how much V Wow. I wonder if that would even fill. That's giving you almost the entire spread. It's a $5 spread and it's giving you $457. That's very interesting.
我正想说，这实际上看起来难以置信。是的，那正是你会说“哇”的那种区间。如果你能拿到，就盯着它看，因为它会漏，对吧？它会漏。而且它只是在找13美元。所以，如果它完全按照它所布局的方向走，这个105一带就会正好处在那个边缘。
但你会得到时间价值衰减。是的，那是每天六美元。所以，我觉得这适合做横盘交易，但如果你想要更多的上行资金流，我会说，你最好在五分钟图上交易它，并且盯一整天。
>> I was going to say that seems unbelievable actually. >> Yeah, that's that's that's the space where you go Row. Um, you know, I if you can get it, just watch it and see because it's going to leak, right? It's going to leak. And it's only it's looking for $13. So, you know, this 105 area is going to be right up on the edge of that if it does exactly what it's positioned to do. But, you know, you're going to get theta decay. >> Yeah, >> that's six bucks a day. So, you know, I I like this for um a sideways trade, but if you are looking for more upward flow, I would say you better be trading that on a five minute and watching it all day.
对。我不——那是空头挤压。现在，你可以去追空头挤压。你可以——我是说，如果你心里想的是，嘿，这太棒了，那你可以去听——你很容易就可以——我打赌100的期权便宜得不能再便宜了，95美分，对吧，如果你想在那里追，那就去吧。
>> Right. I don't That is a short squeeze. Now, you could chase a short squeeze. You could I mean if you're thinking to yourself, >> hey this is great then you can go listen you easily you can just I bet the 100 is cheap as could be 95 cents right that if you want to chase it there you go
这个频道对 $SWKS 的历次判断
Benzinga 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。