AT&T具有上行空间，因为可持续的股息和约10%的盈利增长支撑其估值，尽管当前存在去杠杆需求。
逐段跳播
现在，我们来看看AT&T，就在几年前，它还是市场上最受欢迎的股息股票之一。但我们可以看到，在过去一年里，它下跌了14%，在过去5年里，下跌了约8.78%。
Now, we come to AT&T, who just a few years ago was one of the most popular dividend stocks on the market. But, we can see in the last year, down by 14% and in the last 5 years, down by about 8.78%.
我记得大约四五年前，当他们不得不削减股息时，我做过关于这只股票的视频。那正好是在大家都在谈论他们作为股息股票有多棒的时候。
And I remember making videos on this stock around four, maybe five years ago, when they ended up having to cut their dividend. It was right in the middle of when everybody was talking about how great of a dividend stock they were.
那么，如果我们转到我们的股息分解表，数据会加载进来，我们仍然可以看到他们的收益率约为4.4%，但之前他们有增长股息的历史。他们大幅削减了股息，几乎削减了50%。
Well, if we jump over to our dividend breakdown sheet, the data will load in and we can still see they're still yielding about 4.4% but previously they had a history of growing those dividends. They slashed the dividend pretty significantly almost by 50%
但我们现在会注意到的一件事是，自由现金流相当舒适地覆盖了股息。股息削减前的自由现金流派息率约为79.5%，这确实是可持续的，但我稍后会告诉你为什么那是个问题。但我们可以看到，股息削减后，这个比率更接近40%，截至2025年底，仅为42%。
所以，公司只使用了其自由现金流的42%来支付股息。这使得他们的股息处于一个更可持续的位置。
but one of the things we'll now notice is free cash flow is covering the dividend pretty comfortably. The free cash flow payout ratio before the dividend cut was sitting at about 79.5% which yes, is sustainable but I'll tell you why that was an issue in a moment. But we can see after the dividend cut it's sitting much closer to about 40% and as of the end of 2025 at just 42%. So, the company is only using 42% of their free cash flow to pay out dividend. That puts their dividend in a much more sustainable position
记住，自由现金流和资本配置的选项之一是什么。是加强资产负债表。是偿还债务。这对AT&T来说尤其重要，因为他们仍然有巨额债务余额。净债务为1264亿美元。这显然有点过度杠杆化，管理层已表示，他们的目标是在未来几年内将杠杆率降至约2.5倍EBITDA，显然要达到这个水平，他们将不得不使用资本去杠杆。
Remember what one of the options is with free cash flow and capital allocation. It's strengthening the balance sheet. It's paying down debt. Now, that's particularly important for AT&T because they still have an incredibly large debt balance. 126.4 billion in net debt. That's obviously a little bit over leveraged and management has stated that they're targeting a leverage of approximately 2.5 times EBITDA over the next several years and obviously to get to that level, they're going to have to use capital to deleverage.
所以，自然，自由现金流派息率现在大幅降低是一件非常好的事情。这就是为什么在80%时不可持续，因为债务一直在不断增长。显然，这不是你想看到的。
So, naturally it's a very good thing the free cash flow payout ratio is now substantially lower. That's why it wasn't sustainable at 80% because the debt just kept growing higher and higher. Obviously not something you want to see.
话虽如此，我们可以看到AT&T目前的估值倍数约为10.45。它已经下降了不少，尤其是在过去一年，当时它达到了约14倍市盈率的峰值。
Now, with that being said, we can see AT&T's valuation multiple right now sitting at about 10.45. It's come down quite a bit particularly in the last year when it peaked at about 14 times earnings.
那么，对于像AT&T这样一家盈利增长非常缓慢的公司来说，合理的估值倍数是多少？如果我们转到盈利预测，你会注意到的一件事是，预测实际上比你预期的要强劲得多，尤其是在未来3到4年。
分析师预计盈利增长接近9%到10%。这实际上非常令人印象深刻。
So, what's a reasonable valuation multiple for a company like AT&T, a very slow growing earnings company? Well, if we jump over to earnings estimates, one of the things you'll notice is projections are actually quite a bit stronger than you would expect, particularly over the next 3 to 4 years. Analysts are guiding towards close to 9 to 10% earnings growth. It's actually very impressive.
所以，最终，如果我们转到我们的估值表，看看AT&T，转到股息贴现模型。我们基本上是根据股票将支付多少股息以及未来股息将增长多少来估值。但真正有趣的是，现在，如果你对AT&T应用0%的股息增长率，该股票只值大约每股13美元。
所以，最终，从长远来看，市场正在定价股息增长，尽管在未来几年内，随着公司继续去杠杆，我们可能不会看到任何股息增长。
And so, ultimately, if we jump over to our valuation sheet and take a look at AT&T, jump over to the dividend discount model. Again, we're basically valuing the stock based on how much it's going to pay out in dividends and how much that dividend will grow in the future. But, what's really interesting is right now, if you apply a 0% dividend growth rate to AT&T, the stock is only worth about $13 per share. So, ultimately, over the long haul, the market is pricing in dividend growth, despite the fact we might not see any dividend growth over the next couple of years as the company continues to deleverage.
我们可以看到，如果我们将股息增长率提高到约3%，突然之间我们得到20美元，接近21美元。如果我们提高到4%，我们非常接近公司当前的股价。所以，基本上，这就是市场长期定价的。
What we can see is if we bump dividend growth up to about 3%, all of a sudden we get to $20, close to $21. If we bump it up to 4%, we get very close to the company's current share price. So, essentially, this is what the market is pricing in over the long term.
乍一看，对于像AT&T这样的股票来说，这似乎很激进，直到你考虑到他们使用不到一半的自由现金流来支付股息，同时，未来3到4年的盈利增长预计接近10%。
And it seems aggressive at first glance for a stock like AT&T, until you consider the fact they're using less than half of their free cash flow to pay out dividends, and at the exact same time, earnings growth over the next 3 to 4 years is projected to be close to 10%.
因此，如果他们达到这一盈利水平，实现去杠杆目标，那么可观的起始股息收益率无疑是一个很好的起点。但除此之外，似乎还有一些上行空间。
So, if they achieve this level of earnings, they hit their deleveraging target, then the nice starting dividend yield is certainly a great place to start. But, on top of that, it does look like there's some upside.
即使我们看当前分析师平均目标价，大约在每股 29 美元，意味着 15% 的上行空间。
Even if we look at the average analyst price target right now, it's sitting at about $29 per share, implying 15% upside.
他说在等什么
这个频道对 $T 的历次判断
Dividendology 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。