$T

对股息投资者而言,AT&T 值得买入;DCF 估值显示其被低估。

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《Is AT&T an Undervalued Dividend Stock to Buy for Passive Income Investors? | T Stock Analysis》
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA发布 2026-09-28 · 18 段内容
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从过去十二个月来看,AT&T 为股息型股票投资者提供了约 4.4% 的回报。展望未来,股息率将变得更具吸引力。

AT&T offers dividend stock investors a return of approximately 4.4% when looking at the past twelve months. Looking ahead, the dividend yield becomes more attractive.

AT&T 管理层还上调了其预计从 2028 年起实现的利润增长目标。所以,这一切都是令人振奋的消息,但它是否让 AT&T 股票成为寻求被动收入或股息的投资者的买入机会?

AT&T management has also accelerated the figure it expects to achieve in profit growth starting in 2028. So, all of this is exciting news, but does it make AT&T stock a buying opportunity for investors looking for passive income or dividends?

投资者近期看好 AT&T 的一个原因是其更聚焦的战略,即剥离大部分业务并偿还部分债务。

One reason investors have recently appreciated AT&T is its more focused strategy of divesting large parts of its business and paying off some of its debt.

如你所见,这导致公司规模缩小,营收从 1850 亿降至 1270 亿,但这一降幅大部分是剥离业务的结果。内生增长仍处于低个位数水平,而这正是投资者未来几年可以从 AT&T 期待的表现。

This has led to a smaller company, as you can see, with revenues dropping from 185 billion to 127 billion, but most of this decrease was a result of divestments. Organic growth remains in the low single digits , and that's what investors can expect from AT &T in the coming years.

低个位数的增长。如果它能实现中个位数增长,我认为这将值得投资者庆祝。每股收益的增长速度可能快于营收增长。每股收益只要实现中到高个位数百分比的增长,甚至可能是低双位数百分比的增长,再加上生产率的提升。这一点他们已经向投资者证明过了。

Growth in the low single digits. If it achieves mid-single-digit growth , I think that will be cause for celebration among investors. Earnings per share are likely to grow at a faster rate than revenue growth .

Any growth in earnings per share at a medium to high single- digit percentage, and possibly even a low double-digit percentage, along with gains in productivity. This is something they have already proven to investors.

营业利润率升至 21%,高于 2017 年的约 17.5%。可以想象,AT&T 拥有庞大的服务组织、众多员工和众多客户接触点,因此整合人工智能有助于改善运营。

Operating profit margin rose to 21%, up from about 17.5% in 2017. As you can imagine, AT&T has a large service organization , many employees, and many customer touchpoints, so integrating artificial intelligence helps improve operations.

他们通过使用一些开源模型进一步强化了这一点,将人工智能成本降低了近 90%。随着公司在实现营收增长的同时控制住成本,其营业利润率可能继续扩大。

This is something they have further enhanced by using some open- source models that have reduced their AI costs by nearly 90%. The company's operating profit margins are likely to continue expanding as it achieves revenue growth while keeping costs under control.

AT&T 接下来值得关注的是大规模资本支出浪潮。

The next thing to watch from AT&T is a large wave of capital spending.

过去十年,其投入资本回报率处于平均水平到低于平均水平之间。最近为 8.11%,勉强触及公司的加权资本成本。这一点很重要,因为 AT&T 的下一轮升级周期即将到来。

Over the past decade, their returns on invested capital have been average to below average. More recently at 8.11%, it barely touches the company's weighted cost of capital. This is important because the next upgrade cycle is just around the corner at AT&T.

5G 技术如今已经完成并结束,我们正期待 6G,它将在未来两年内到来。这将需要 AT&T、Verizon 及其他公司进行大量投资,以跟上新技术。

5G technology is now complete and finished, and we are looking forward to 6G, which will come within the next two years. This will require significant investments from AT&T, Verizon, and others to keep up with the new technology.

鉴于 AT&T 在资本配置方面并不擅长,这并不是 AT&T 投资者所期待的事情。

Given that AT&T has not been adept at allocating capital, this is not something AT&T investors are looking forward to.

4.36% 的股息率颇具吸引力。不过在多数情况下,这仍低于 10 年期政府债券、甚至货币市场账户所能提供的收益。但与此同时,你还能获得潜在资本利得这一优势。

The dividend payout is attractive at 4.36%. It is still less than what you can get from 10-year government bonds or even money market accounts in most cases. However, you also get the advantage of potential capital gains.

因此,你不仅能获得股息,还能受益于股价上涨。为了更好地说明我对股价上涨空间的看法,我想看看估值。AT&T 股票的远期市盈率为 9.9,我认为对于这一类公司而言,这是一个合理的估值。

Therefore, you not only receive dividends , but you are also exposed to stock price increases. To better understand what I think about the stock price gains, I wanted to look at the valuation .

AT&T shares are trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 9.9, which I consider a fair valuation for a company in its class.

该公司在其市场上已经达到了饱和点,不是吗?它并没有为这个行业吸引来多少新客户。它主要是维持现有的客户群,并与 Verizon 和 T-Mobile 在市场份额的得失上轮流坐庄。

The company has reached a point of saturation in its market, hasn't it? It is not attracting many new customers to the sector. It primarily maintains its existing customer base and alternates roles with Verizon and T-Mobile in gaining or losing market share.

短期内,他们这里有一个不错的催化剂,即双屏 iPhone 或可折叠 iPhone 的发布,我认为这将是一款重磅产品,可能会带来更多机会去接触那些会有疑问、并有兴趣升级到新 iPhone 的客户。

In the near term, they have a good catalyst here with the release of the dual iPhone, or foldable iPhone, which I think will be a huge product that may facilitate increased opportunities to engage with customers who will have questions and are interested in upgrading to the new iPhones.

所以,这对 AT&T 来说是一个短期内提升客户参与度、销售更多配件等的机会,我认为这对 AT&T 将是利好。我还更新了 AT&T 的贴现现金流估算。我计算出该公司的公允价值为 34.60 美元。

当前市场价格为 25.50 美元。因此,按贴现现金流衡量,该股似乎被低估了。

So, this is a near-term opportunity for AT&T to increase customer engagement, sell additional accessories, etc., and I think this will be positive for AT&T. I have also updated AT&T's discounted cash flow estimates.

I have calculated the fair value of this company at $34.60. The current market price is $25.50. Therefore, the stock appears to be undervalued when measured on a discounted cash flow basis.

按远期盈利倍数衡量,它似乎正好处于其公允价值。从整体业务来看,我会说它略微低估,甚至可以说是确实被低估了。因此,将这些因素与其估值相比较,来回答这个问题:这对股息股投资者来说看起来像是一个买入机会吗?我可以说,是的。

It appears to be valued at its fair value when measured on a forward earnings multiple basis. Looking at the business as a whole, I would say it is slightly undervalued to actually undervalued.

Therefore , considering these factors in comparison to their evaluation, to answer the question: Does this look like a buying opportunity for dividend stock investors? I can say yes.

我对这一分类持有中等程度的信念和中等程度的信心。积极的一面是公司利润率的改善。不利的一面是即将到来的大规模升级周期,以及 AT&T 在投资资本回报率方面并不出色的历史记录。

I have a moderate level of conviction and a moderate level of confidence in this classification. The positive effects are an improvement in the company's profit margins . The downsides are a massive upgrade cycle coming up , and AT&T's less-than-stellar track record in returns on invested capital.

观察点

即将到来的6G升级周期中的资本开支效率
投入资本回报率改善至高于加权资本成本
未来两年未来的财务报告
若资本配置持续不佳并压制ROIC,将削弱看涨逻辑

这个频道对 $T 的历次判断

Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。

2026-09-28看涨本条
从过去十二个月来看,AT&T 为股息型股票投资者提供了约 4.4% 的回报。
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